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USA corn yields, the El Niñmo and agricultural drought: 1867–1988

1990; Wiley; Volume: 10; Issue: 8 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1002/joc.3370100804

1097-0088

Aul Handler,

Climate change impacts on agriculture

Abstract The magnitude of spatial and lagged correlation between the sea‐surface temperature anomalies of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (El NiñMo) and corn yield in the USA is presented. The record is not homogeneous in that the correlation level varies quite strongly over time. The period between 1910 and 1950 shows completely uncorrelated behaviour. In the most recent 40 years the correlation is found to be strongest in the region just south of the Great Lakes in the states of Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana. Correlation maps are presented that show the degree of association for the corn yield in those 41 states for which records are available. For the entire record the highest correlations occur with the sea‐surface temperature anomalies appearing after the corn is harvested in September to February of the following year. Since corn yields are a proxy for summer agricultural drought in the central part of the USA, the droughts during the period 1910 to 1950 must have had some other cause.