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US Counter–terrorism Options: A Taxonomy

2007; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 49; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/00396330701564711

1468-2699

Daniel Byman,

Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1 For a cogent review of these problems, see Stephen D. Biddle, American Grand Strategy after 9/11: An Assessment (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, April 2005), p. 22. 2 Leading recent works on terrorism include Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism (New York: Columbia University Press, 2006); Max Abrams, 'Why Terrorism Does Not Work', International Security, vol. 31, no. 2, Fall 2006, pp. 42–78; Robert Trager and Dessislava Zagorcheva, 'Deterring Terrorism: It Can Be Done', International Security, vol. 30, no. 3, Winter 2005–06, pp. 87–123; and Robert Reich (ed.), Origins of Terrorism (Washington DC: Woodrow Wilson Press, 1998). Robert Pape, Dying to Win (New York: Random House, 2005), addresses the tactic of suicide bombing. For works on al-Qaeda, see Michael Scheuer, Through Our Enemies' Eyes (Washington DC: Brassey's, 2006); Marc Sageman, Understanding Terror Networks (Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004); National Academy of Public Administration, Transforming the FBI (September 2005), Peter Bergen, The Osama bin Laden I Know (New York: The Free Press, 2006). Two superb journalistic accounts of US counterterrorism are Steve Coll, Ghost Wars (Harmondsworth: Penguin Press, 2004) and Lawrence Wright, The Looming Tower (New York: Knopf, 2006). 3 Works on counter-terrorism include Paul Pillar, Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy (Washington DC: Brookings, 2001); and Barry R. Posen, 'The Struggle against Terrorism: Grand Strategy, Strategy, and Tactics', International Security, vol 26, no. 3, Winter 2001, pp. 39–55. 4 The 2006 National Strategy for Combating Terror emphasised killing and arresting terrorists abroad, denying them the support of states, preventing them from gaining access to weapons of mass destruction, and spreading democracy. The strategy is ostensibly directed against all terrorists, but in practice the US effort is concentrated against al-Qaeda and the broader jihadist movement it supports. The Bush administration has at times been criticised for being too broad in its approach. 5 For a review, see Geneive Abdo, No God but God: Egypt and the Triumph of Islam (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000) and International Crisis Group, Islamism in North Africa II: Egypt's Opportunity (Brussels: ICG, 2004). 6 Michael Scheuer, Imperial Hubris (Washington DC: Brassey's, 2004), p. 241. 7 Henri Barkey, 'Turkey and the PKK: A Pyrrhic Victory?', in Robert Art and Louise Richardson (eds), Democracy and Counterterrorism Lessons from the Past (Washington DC: USIP Press, 2007), pp. 343–82. 8 Several reports indicate that the PKK is reviving in Iraq now. Michael Hastings, 'Blacksnake's Lair: From Deep in the Hills, Kurdish Rebels are Stirring up Turkey and Iran, and Threatening the One Calm Part of Iraq', Newsweek, 9 October 2006. 9 Bob Woodward, '50 Countries Detain 360 Suspects at CIA's Behest', Washington Post, 22 November 2001. Paul Pillar is critical of the use of law-enforcement techniques in isolation but notes they can be a valuable component of a broader counter terrorism strategy. See Pillar, Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy, pp. 80–89; Paul R. Pillar, 'Counterterrorism after Al-Qaeda', The Washington Quarterly, vol. 27, no. 3, 2004, pp. 101–13, and Paul R. Pillar, 'Intelligence', in Audrey Kurth Cronin and James M. Ludes (eds), Attacking Terrorism: Elements of a Grand Strategy (Washington DC: Georgetown University Press, 2004), p. 115. 10 National Academy of Public Administration, Transforming the FBI, p. 16. 11 Saxby Chambliss, Subcommittee on Terrorism and Homeland Security House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, 'Counterterrorism Intelligence Capabilities and Performance Prior to 9–11', July 2002. 12 John Diamond, 'It's No Secret: CIA Scouting for Recruits', USA Today, 22 November 2005. 13 Abdo, No God But God, p. 78; Gilles Kepel, Jihad: The Trail of Political Islam (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2003), pp. 275–89. 14 Andrew Higgins and Christopher Cooper, 'CIA-backed Team used Brutal Means to Break Up Terrorist Cell in Albania', Wall Street Journal, 20 November 2001. 15 Daniel L. Byman, 'Friends Like These: Counterinsurgency and the War on Terrorism', International Security, vol. 31, no. 2, Fall 2006, pp. 79–115. 16 Fu'ad Husayn, 'Al-Zarqawi, the Second Generation of Al-Qa'ida', serialised in Al Quds Al-'Arabi, May and June 2005. 17 Daniel Byman, 'Remaking Alliances for the War on Terrorism', Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 29, no. 5, October 2006, pp. 767–811. 18 To be clear, in contrast to the Cold War policy of containment, this is not based on the territorial containment of an enemy. Rather, the goal is to try to prevent the danger from growing and, as this is happening, wait for internal contradictions to weaken the adversary further. 19 Philip B. Heymann, Terrorism and America: A Commonsense Strategy for a Democratic Society (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2000), p. 158. 20 John Mueller, 'Six Rather Unusual Propositions about Terrorism', Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 17, no. 4, 2005, pp. 487–8. 21 Clark Chapman and Allan Harris, 'A Skeptical Look at September 11: How We Can Defeat Terrorism by Reacting To It More Rationally', Skeptical Inquirer, September–October 2002, pp. 29–34. 22 For useful reviews, see Hala Jaber, Hezbollah: Born With A Vengeance (New York: Columbia University Press, 1997) and Judith Palmer Harik, Hezbollah: The Changing Face of Terrorism (New York: I.B. Tauris, 2004). 23 Daniel Levitas, The Terrorist Next Door (New York: St Martin's Griffin, 2004), p. 324. 24 Kepel, Jihad, p. 304. 25 International Crisis Group, Hizbollah: Rebel Group without a Cause? (Brussels: ICG, 2003); James Kitfield, 'The Iranian Connection', National Journal, May 2002, p. 1469. 26 See John Mueller, 'The Banality of "Ethnic War"', International Security, vol. 25, no. 1, Summer 2000, pp. 42–70. 27 Terrorism expert Marc Sageman articulates this view when he notes, 'The old Al Qaeda is hiding away in caves someplace'. Marlena Telvick, 'Al Qaeda Today: The New Face of the Global Jihad', Frontline, available at http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/front/etc/today.html. Sageman's claim overstates al-Qaeda's decline, but his basic point that the core is less capable is true. Often, though their sole link is through web sites that spread the jihad, the ranks of sympathisers swell even more. 28 Pillar, 'Intelligence', p. 115. 29 The primary criticism of the barrier is on the grounds that it both effectively annexes Palestinian territory and that it inhibits the flow of goods into Israel from Palestinian areas, further hurting the Palestinian economy. The former criticism in particular would not apply to the United States. 30 Avi Dicter and Daniel Byman, Israel's Lessons for Fighting Terrorists and Their Implications for the United States, Saban Analysis Paper, no 8 (Washington DC: Brookings, 2006), p. 7. 31 Pillar, 'Intelligence', p. 125. 32 Report of the Accountability Review Boards on the Embassy Bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam (Washington DC: 1999). 33 Statement of Cathleen A. Berrick, Director, Homeland Security and Justice, Testimony Before the Committee on Government Reform, House of Representatives, 2003. Aviation Security: Efforts to Measure Effectiveness and Strengthen Security Programs, 20 November 2003. GAO-040285T: 22. 34 According to James Fallows, more than 80% of the entire TSA's budget ($5.3bn) in 2005 went to cover the cost of airport screening. This left less than $1bn for all other forms of transportation, including roads, bridges, subways, ports and so on, which are more frequented by Americans than airlines. A total of $4.7bn was requested to support TSA's aviation security efforts in the FY2007 budget. Fallows 2005; United States Department of Homeland Security 2006. James Fallows, 'Success Without Victory', Atlantic Monthly, January–February 2005; United States Department of Homeland Security, Budget-in-brief (FY2007), http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/Budget_BIB-FY2007.pdf. 35 Steve Orr, 'No Change in Airport Screening', Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, 27 November 2004. 36 Scott Higham and Robert O'Harrow, Jr, 'Contracting Rush for Security Led to Waste, Abuse', Washington Post, 22 May 2005, p. A1. 37 Eric Lipton, 'US to Spend Billions More to Alter Security Systems', New York Times, 7 May 2005. 38 For a review of terrorist innovation, see Brian A. Jackson, John C. Baker, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, John V. Parachini and Horacio R. Trujillo, Aptitude for Destruction: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2005). 39 Dicter and Byman, Israel's Lessons, pp. 5–8. 40 Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball, 'Wrong Priorities?', Newsweek, 7 September 2005, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9246373/site/newsweek/fromRL.1/. 41 James Risen and Eric Lichtbau, 'Bush Lets US Spy on Callers without Courts', New York Times, 16 December 2005, p. A1. 42 Muslim Public Affairs Council, MPAC Special Report: Religion & Identity of Muslim American Youth Post-London Attacks (Washington DC: Muslim Public Affairs Council, 2005). 43 Institute of International Education, 'International Student Enrollment Growth Slows in 2002/2003', press release, 3 November 2003, http://opendoors.iienetwork.org/?p=36523. 44 Jeremy Shapiro and Benedicte Suzan, 'The French Experience of Counter-terrorism', Survival, vol. 45, no. 1, Spring 2003, p. 68. 45 See, for example, Michael Scott Doran, 'Somebody Else's Civil War', Foreign Affairs, vol. 81, no. 1, January–February 2002, pp. 22–42. 46 Richard Falkenrath, Remarks at the Brookings Institution Panel on 'How to Win the War on Terrorism', 22 September 2005, available at http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/events/20050922_panel1.pdf. 47 'President Addresses Nation, Discusses Iraq, War on Terror', speech at Fort Bragg, 28 June 2005, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/06/20050628-7.html; see also 'President Discusses War on Terror', talk at the National Defense University, 8 March 2005. 48 Many American Muslims are educated professionals who are well integrated into American society. Often, they have higher average incomes than do non-Muslims. The various plots uncovered since 11 September have all involved small, disconnected groups and individuals rather than a larger, country-wide network. Polls conducted in 2006 show that Americans associate far fewer negative images of Muslims than do Europeans who were also polled. Pew Global Attitudes Project, 'The Great Divide', 22 March 2006, p. 6, http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=253; Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, The Next Attack (New York: Times Books, 2005), p. 119; Nicole J. Henderson, Christopher W. Ortiz, Naomi F. Sugie and Joel Miller, Law Enforcement & Arab American Community Relations After September 11, 2001: Engagement in a Time of Uncertainty (New York: Vera Institute of Justice, 2006), pp. 17–18. 49 Scheuer, Through our Enemies' Eyes, p. 111. 50 United Nations Development Programme, Arab Human Development Report (New York: United Nations Publications, 2003), p. 19. 51 The Saudi regime has effectively engaged in the 'war of ideas'. By converting several prominent clerics from adversaries and critics to regime supporters, the regime was able to use highly credible voices to undercut support for the radicals. The jihadists' own missteps in targeting, such as killing Muslims and Arabs in early attacks, made it easier for the regime to gain the backing of their former critics and to paint the jihadists as murderous thugs in the eyes of the Saudi people. The Saudi government also lined up clergy more openly sympathetic to the regime to condemn the jihadists. It pressed hard to ensure that state-backed clerics offered a united front against the jihadists. Saudi Arabia also pushed groups like Hamas and other radical organisations it backs to condemn the violence. Finally, the Saudis also published confessions of captured terrorists to show their ignorance and brutality. 52 'President Discusses War on Terror at National Endowment for Democracy', speech before the National Endowment for Democracy, 5 October 2005. 53 Ted Robert Gurr, 'Terrorism in Democracies: Its Social and Political Bases', in Walter Reich (ed.), Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, and States of Mind (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990), pp. 87–98. 54 Ed Maloney, A Secret History of the IRA (New York: W.W. Norton, 2002), pp. 375–479. 55 F. Gregory Gause III, 'Can Democracy Stop Terrorism?', Foreign Affairs, vol. 84, no. 5, September–October 2005, pp. 62–76. 56 Pillar, Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy, p. 218. Additional informationNotes on contributorsDaniel Byman Daniel Byman is the Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and a Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. This article draws on his forthcoming book The Five Front War (Wiley).