Detecting and Disrupting Illicit Nuclear Trade after A.Q. Khan
2010; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 33; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/01636601003673857
ISSN1530-9177
AutoresDavid L. Albright, Paul Brannan, Andrea Stricker,
Tópico(s)International Relations and Foreign Policy
ResumoClick to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. In this article, a network is an interacting collection of companies and individuals engaged in a process of procuring capabilities to make nuclear weapons. The use of the term network is to avoid characterizing these proliferation activities as an organization and to include all aspects of the activities necessary to organize this effort, deceive suppliers, order goods, pay for them, and ship them. 2. Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman The Nuclear Express: A Political History of the Bomb and Its Proliferation (Minneapolis, MN: Zenith Press, 2009) and Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), “Nuclear Weapons Programs Worldwide: An Historical Overview,” Web site, n.d., http://isis-online.org/nuclear-weapons-programs/. 3. Other items not on government control lists are covered by “catch-all” controls. These controls provide a legal or regulatory basis to require government permission for exporting these unlisted items when there is reason to believe such items are intended for a missile program or for the development of weapons of mass destruction. In practice, catch-all is very hard to implement without government assistance. 4. See David Albright and Christina Walrond, “The Trials of German-Iranian Trader Mohsen Vanaki: The German Federal Intelligence Service Assesses That Iran Likely Has a Nuclear Weapons Program,” December 15, 2009, http://www.isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/MohsenCaseStudy_update_15Dec2009.pdf. and multiple interviews with British, French, and German officials by ISIS staff, 2008 and 2009 5. See David Albright, Peddling Peril: How the Secret Nuclear Trade Arms America's Enemies (New York: Free Press, 2010) and ISIS, “Illicit Trade: Case Studies,” Web Site, 2009, http://isis-online.org/studies/category/illicit-trade/. 6. Albright, Peddling Peril and David Albright and Corey Hinderstein “Unraveling the A.Q. Khan and Future proliferation Networks,” The Washington Quarterly 28, no. 2 (Spring 2005): 111–128 http://www.twq.wm/05spring/docs/05spring_albright.pdf. 7. George Tenet, At the Center of the Storm, (New York: HarpersCollins, 2007), p. 287. 8. David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Andrea Scheel Stricker, “Arrests in Scheme to Export Vacuum Pump Equipment to Iran from the United States” (Washington, D.C.: ISIS, forthcoming). 9. For more in-depth studies of these strategies, see Albright, Peddling Peril and “Illicit Trade: Case Studies.” 10. J. Michael McConnell, director of national intelligence, statement for the record before the Senate Committee on Armed Services, February 27, 2007, http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20070227_testimony.pdf. 11. See David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Andrea Scheel, “A Company's Discretion Detects Large Iranian Valve Orders by Scrutinizing Items and End-Users Instead of Lists,” January 28, 2009, http://www.isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Iran_Valves_28January2009.pdf. 12. See David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Andrea Scheel, “Detecting the Barrage Approach to Illicit Procurement,” January 12, 2009, http://www.isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/PakistanBarrageApproach.pdf. 13. On a much smaller scale, this type of illicit trading network appears to have some of the characteristics of a scale-free network, For background on scale-free networks, see Mark Newman, “The Physics of Networks,” Physics Today, November 2008, http://scitation.aip.org/getpdf/servlet/GetPDFServlet?filetype=pdf&id=PHTOAD000061000011000033000001&idtype=cvips&prog=search&bypassSSO and Mark Newman, Albert-László Barabási, and Mark Newman, The Structure and Dynamics of Networks (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006). 14. On a much smaller scale, this type of illicit trading network appears to have some of the characteristics of a scale-free network, For background on scale-free networks, see Mark Newman, “The Physics of Networks,” Physics Today, November 2008, http://scitation.aip.org/getpdf/servlet/GetPDFServlet?filetype=pdf&id=PHTOAD000061000011000033000001&idtype=cvips&prog=search&bypassSSO and Mark Newman, Albert-László Barabási, and Mark Newman, The Structure and Dynamics of Networks (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006). 15. David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Andrea Scheel Stricker, “Inventive U.S. Sting Operation Catches Iran-Based Military Equipment Smuggler,” February 16, 2010, http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/inventive-u.s.-sting-operation-catches-iran-based-military-equipment-struggl/. 16. Albright, Brannan, and Stricker, “Arrests in Scheme to Export Vacuum Pump Equipment to Iran from the United States.” 17. See UN Security Council Resolution 1540, S/RES/1540 (2004), April 28, 2004, http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N04/328/43/PDF/N0432843.pdf?OpenElement. 18. UN Security Council Resolution 1887, SC/9746, September 24, 2009, http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2009/sc9746.doc.htm. 19. See Joshua Gallu, Karen Freifeld, and Cary O'Reilly, “Credit Suisse to Pay $536 Million in U.S. Settlement,” Bloomberg.com, December 16, 2009, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aG1wyIpbsqCU and Karen Freifeld, “Lloyds TSB to Pay $350 Million to Settle Probe,” Bloomberg.com, January 10, 2009, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aeBCUImC3lMk. 20. Andrea Scheel Stricker, “A Smuggler's Use of the U.S. Financial System to Receive Illegal Payments from Iran,” October 23, 2009, http://www.isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Limmt_Li_Fang_Wei_23Oct2009.pdf. 21. See UN Security Council Resolution 1810, SC/9310, April 25, 2008, http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/sc9310.doc.htm. 22. UN Security Council, letter dated July 8, 2008 from the chairman of the Security Council Subcommittee established pursuant to resolution 1540 (2004), addressed to the president of the UN Security Council, July 30, 2008. pp. 22–25. 23. Justin Blum, “Iran Gains U.S. Military Technology Through Malaysia Middlemen,” Bloomberg.com, September 14, 2009, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aK4daf8MD.Bw. 24. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “Joint Statement by President Dmitriy Medvedev of the Russian Federation and President Barack Obama of the United States of America,” April 1, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Joint-Statement-by-President-Dmitriy-Medvedev-of-the-Russian-Federation-and-President-Barack-Obama-of-the-United-States-of-America/ and Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, Hradcany Square, Prague, Czech Republic, April 5, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-By-President-Barack-Obama-In-Prague-As-Delivered/. 25. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “Addressing the Nuclear Threat: Fulfilling the Promise of Prague at the L'Aquila Summit,” July 8, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Addressing-the-Nuclear-Threat-Fulfilling-the-Promise-of-Prague-at-the-LAquila-Summit/. 26. David Albright and Paul Brannan, “Surprising Admission by India's Department of Atomic Energy,” September 19, 2008, http://www.isis-online.org/publications/southasia/India_DAE_19September2008.pdf. 27. Matti Tarvainen, “Unfair Trade,” IAEA Bulletin 50, no. 2, May 2009, http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/Bull502/50203556163.html. 28. See Security Service, “Counter-Proliferation,” Web Site, https://www.mi5.gov.uk/output/counter-proliferation.html. 29. Communication with European government and industry officials, July 1, 2008. Additional informationNotes on contributorsDavid AlbrightDavid Albright is a physicist, president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) in Washington, D.C., and author of Peddling Peril: How the Secret Nuclear Trade Arms America's Enemies (New York, 2010)Paul BrannanPaul Brannan is a senior research analyst at ISISAndrea Scheel StrickerAndrea Scheel Stricker is a research analyst at ISIS
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