Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

A Comparison of the Dynamic Properties of Five Nordic Macroeconometric Models

1984; Wiley; Volume: 86; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.2307/3439402

1467-9442

Johan A. Lybeck, Reinhold Bergström, Villy Bergström, Evert Carlsson, Svante Johansson, Björn Järnhäll, Pertti Kukkonen, Juha Tarkka, Torben Visholm, Alpo Willman, Reinhold Bergström, Villy Bergström, Bjorn Jarnhall,

Economic, financial, and policy analysis

The dynamic properties of five macroeconometric models, three Swedish, one Danish and one Finnish, are compared in this paper. No attempt is made to judge the performance of the models by tracking or forecasting criteria. Emphasis is instead placed on the behavior of the models in two standardized shocks: an increase in Government spending and a devaluation. The results of the first simulation indicate that fiscal policy in a recession is a reliable tool, even though the multipliers are fairly small in an open economy with high marginal tax rates. However, in the 6-8 year period studied, crowding out is not complete. Conclusions for the devaluation case are more mixed, depending on the model-builders' assumptions.