Synchronous variability changes in Alpine temperature and tree-ring data over the past two centuries
2005; Wiley; Volume: 34; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/03009480500231443
ISSN1502-3885
AutoresDavid Frank, Rob Wilson, Jan Esper,
Tópico(s)Climate variability and models
ResumoBoreasVolume 34, Issue 4 p. 498-505 Free to Read Synchronous variability changes in Alpine temperature and tree-ring data over the past two centuries DAVID FRANK, DAVID FRANK (e-mail: [email protected]) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf SwitzerlandSearch for more papers by this authorROBERT WILSON, ROBERT WILSON School of Geosciences, Grant Institute, Edinburgh University, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW, United KingdomSearch for more papers by this authorJAN ESPER, JAN ESPER (e-mail: [email protected]) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf SwitzerlandSearch for more papers by this author DAVID FRANK, DAVID FRANK (e-mail: [email protected]) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf SwitzerlandSearch for more papers by this authorROBERT WILSON, ROBERT WILSON School of Geosciences, Grant Institute, Edinburgh University, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW, United KingdomSearch for more papers by this authorJAN ESPER, JAN ESPER (e-mail: [email protected]) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf SwitzerlandSearch for more papers by this author First published: 28 June 2008 https://doi.org/10.1080/03009480500231443Citations: 20AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstract The understanding of extremes and their temporal distribution is useful in characterizing the behaviour of the climate system, and necessary for understanding their social and economic costs and risks. This task is analogous to the study of pointer years in dendrochronological investigations. Commonly used dendroclimatological methods, however, tend to result in an equalization of variance throughout the record by normalizing variability within moving windows. Here, we analyse a larger network of high-elevation temperature-sensitive tree sites from the European Alps processed to preserve the relative frequency and magnitude of extreme events. In so doing, temporal changes in year-to-year tree-ring width variability were found. These decadal length periods of increased or decreased likelihood of extremes coincide with variability measures from a long-instrumental summer temperature record representative of high-elevation conditions in the Alps. Intervention analysis, using an F-test to identify shifts in variance, on both the tree-ring and instrumental series, resulted in the identification of common transitional years. Based on a well-replicated network of sites reflecting common climatic variation, our study demonstrates that the annual growth rings of trees can be utilized to quantify past frequency and amplitude changes in extreme variability. Furthermore, the approach outlined is suited to address questions about the role of external forcing, ocean—atmosphere interactions, or synoptic scale changes in determining patterns of observed extremes prior to the instrumental period. References Benestad, R. E. 2004: Record-values, nonstationarity tests and extreme value distributions. Global and Planetary Change 44, 11–26. Beniston, M. & Jungo, P. 2002: Shifts in the distributions of pressure, temperature and moisture in the alpine region in response to the behavior of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 71, 29–42. Beniston, M. & Stephenson, D. B. 2004: Extreme climatic events and their evolution under changing climatic conditions. Global and Planetary Change 44, 1–9. Böhm, R., Auer, I., Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., Nanni, T. & Schöner, W. 2001: Regional temperature variability in the European Alps: 1760–1998 from homogenized instrumental time series. International Journal of Climatology 21, 1779–1801. Box, G. E. P. & Tiao, G. C. 1975: Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems. Journal of the American Statistical Association 70, 70–9. Briffa, K. R., Osborn, T. J. & Schweingruber, F. H. 2004: Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review. Global and Planetary Change 40, 11–26. Cook, E. R. & Peters, K. 1997: Calculating unbiased tree-ring indices for the study of climatic and environmental change. The Holocene 7, 361–370. Cook, E. R., Esper, J. & D'Arrigo, R. 2004: Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature variability over the past 1000 years. Quaternary Science Reviews 23, 2063–2074. Cropper, J. P. 1979: Tree-ring skeleton plotting by computer. Tree-Ring Bulletin 39, 47–60. Easterling, D. R., Evans, J. L., Groisman, P. Ya., Karl, T. R., Kunkel, K. E. & Ambenje, P. 2000: Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: a brief review. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81, 417–425. Esper, J., Cook, E. R. & Schweingruber, F. H. 2002: Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295, 2250–2252. Frank, D. & Esper, J. In press a: Characterization and climate response patterns of a high-elevation, multi-species tree-ring network for the European Alps. Dendrochronologia. Frank, D. & Esper, J. In press b: Temperature reconstructions and comparisons with instrumental data from a tree-ring network for the European Alps. International Journal of Climatology. Frich, P., Alexander, L. V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein Tank, A. M. G. & Peterson, T. 2002: Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the 20th century. Climate Research 19, 193–212. Gasser, T. & Müller, H. G. 1984: Estimating regression functions and their derivatives by Kernel method. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 11, 172–185. IPCC2001: Climate Change: The Scientific Basis. 944 pp. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge . Jones, P. D. & Mann, M. E. 2004: Climate over past millennia. Reviews of Geophysics 42, RG2002. Jones, P. D. & Moberg, A. 2003: Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2001. Journal of Climate 16, 206–223. Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J. & Briffa, K R. 2003: Changes in the Northern Hemisphere annual cycle: implications for paleoclima-tology? Journal of Geophysical Research 108, 4588. Katz, R. W. & Brown, B. G. 1992: Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages. Climatic Change 21, 298–302. Klein Tank, A. M. G., Können, G. P. & Selten, F. M. 2005: Signals of anthropogenic influence on European warming as seen in the trend patterns of daily temperature variance. International Journal of Climatology 25, 1–16. Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M. & Wanner, H. 2004: European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends and extremes since 1500. Science 303, 1499–1503. Mann, M. E., Bradley, R. S. & Hughes, M. K. 1999: Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759–762. Meehl, G. A., Karl, T., Easterling, D. R., Changnon, S., Pielke, R. Jr., Changnon, D., Evans, J., Groisman, P. Y., Knutson, T. R. & Kunkel, K. E. 2000: An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 40, 413–416. Meyer, F. D. 1999: Pointer year analysis in dendroecology: a comparison of methods. Dendrochronologia 16–17, 193–204. Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D. M., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N. M. & Karlen, W. 2005: Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433. Ollinger, S. V., Aber, J. D. & Reich, P. B. 1997: Simulating ozone effects on forest productivity: interactions among leaf-, canopy- and stand-level processes. Ecological Applications 7, 1237–1251. Rebetez, M. 2004: Summer 2003 maximum and minimum daily temperatures over a 3300 m altitudinal range in the Alps. Climate Research 27, 45–50. Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C., Liniger, M. A. & Appenzeller, C. 2004: The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427. Schweingruber, F. H., Eckstein, D., Serre-Bachet, F. & Bräker, O. U. 1990: Identification, presentation and interpretation of event years and pointer years in dendrochronology. Dendrochronologia 8, 9–38. Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A. & Allen, M. R. 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432. Wanner, H., Rickli, R., Salvisberg, E., Schmutz, C. & Schüepp, M. 1997: Global climate change and variability and its influence on alpine climate - concepts and observations. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 58, 221–243. Watson, E. & Luckman, B. H. 2001: The development of a moisture-stressed tree-ring chronology network for the southern Canadian Cordillera. Tree-Ring Research 57, 149–168. Citing Literature Volume34, Issue4November 2005Pages 498-505 ReferencesRelatedInformation
Referência(s)