Artigo Revisado por pares

Welfare State Restructuring without Grand Coalitions: The Role of Informal Cooperation in Blame Avoidance

2008; Routledge; Volume: 17; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/09644000802075757

ISSN

1743-8993

Autores

Martin Hering,

Tópico(s)

Social Policy and Reform Studies

Resumo

Abstract This article argues that welfare state restructuring, which is highly unpopular among voters, is politically feasible if government and opposition parties cooperate informally with one another. Contrary to what key arguments made in the literature assert, restructuring does not require the formation of a grand coalition to diffuse blame from voters. Informal cooperation between parties is a distinctive blame-avoiding strategy, which differs not only from other party-oriented strategies such as building a grand coalition, but also from voter-oriented ones, such as obfuscation and exemption. By analysing the politics of pension reform in Germany, this article shows that informal cooperation enables political parties to restructure the welfare state without running the risk of electoral failure. Notes The author wishes to thank Christopher Hood, Alina Gildiner, Peter Graefe, Moshe Maor, Charles D. Raab, R. Kent Weaver, Reimut Zohlnhöfer, two anonymous reviewers, and the participants of the ECPR workshop on blame avoidance and blame management for their comments on earlier drafts of this paper 1. J. Myles and P. Pierson, 'The Comparative Political Economy of Pension Reform', in P. Pierson (ed.), The New Politics of the Welfare State (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001); P. Pierson, 'Coping with Permanent Austerity: Welfare State Restructuring in Affluent Democracies', in Pierson (ed.), The New Politics of the Welfare State. 2. R.K. Weaver, 'The Politics of Blame Avoidance', Journal of Public Policy 6 (1986), pp.371–98. 3. J.W. Markham, 'The Nature and Significance of Price Leadership', American Economic Review 41 (1951), pp.891–905; J.J. Rotemberg and G. Saloner, 'Collusive Price Leadership', Journal of Industrial Economics 39 (1990), pp.93–111. 4. S. Bartolini, 'Collusion, Competition and Democracy: Part II', Journal of Theoretical Politics 12 (2000), pp.33–65; R.S. Katz and P. 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Reagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of Retrenchment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), p.17. 10. P. Pierson, 'The New Politics of the Welfare State', World Politics 48 (1996), pp.143–79 at p.146. 11. H. Kitschelt, 'Partisan Competition and Welfare State Retrenchment: When Do Politicians Choose Unpopular Policies?', in Pierson (ed.), The New Politics of the Welfare State, p.280. 12. G. Bonoli and B. Palier, 'When Past Reforms Open New Opportunities: Comparing Old-Age Insurance Reforms in Bismarckian Welfare States', Social Policy and Administration 41 (2007), pp.555–73; S. Padgett, 'Welfare Bias in the Party System: A Neo-Downsian Explanation for Gridlock in Economic Reform', German Politics, 13 (2004), pp.360–83; M., Seeleib-Kaiser, S. v. Dyk and M. Roggenkamp, 'What Do Parties Want? An Analysis of Programmatic Social Policy Aims in Austria, Germany, and the Netherlands', Zentrum für Sozialpolitik Working Paper (Bremen: University of Bremen, 2005). 13. Bartolini, 'Collusion, Competition and Democracy: Part II'; Kitschelt, 'Partisan Competition and Welfare State Retrenchment'. 14. B. Kittel and H. Obinger, 'Political Parties, Institutions, and the Dynamics of Social Expenditure in Times of Austerity', Journal of European Public Policy 10 (2003), pp.20–45; E. Huber and J.D. Stephens, Development and Crisis of the Welfare State: Parties and Policies in Global Markets (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2001). 15. V. Schmidt, 'Values and Discourse in the Politics of Adjustment', in F.W. Scharpf and V. Schmidt (eds.), Welfare and Work in the Open Economy: From Vulnerability to Competitiveness (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000); R.H. Cox, 'The Social Construction of an Imperative: Why Welfare Reform Happened in Denmark and the Netherlands but Not in Germany', World Politics 53 (2001), pp.463–98; V. Bhatia and W.D. Coleman, 'Ideas and Discourse: Reform and Resistance in the Canadian and German Health Systems', Canadian Journal of Political Science 36 (2003), pp.715–39. 16. F.W. Scharpf, Games Real Actors Play: Actor-Centered Institutionalism in Policy Research (Boulder: Westview Press, 1998). 17. J. Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991). 18. P.A. Hall, 'Policy Paradigms, Social Learning, and the State: The Case of Economic Policymaking in Britain', Comparative Politics 26 (1993), pp.275–96. 19. F. Nullmeier and F.W. Rüb, Die Transformation der Sozialpolitik: Vom Sozialstaat zum Sicherungsstaat (Frankfurt/New York: Campus, 1993). 20. Ibid. 21. Bundesministerium der Finanzen, 'Deutschland erneuern: Zukunftsprogramm zur Sicherung von Arbeit, Wachstum und sozialer Stabilität' (Bonn, 1999); Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Sozialordnung, 'Eckpunkte für eine neue Altersversorgung' (Bonn, 1999). 22. 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Schmidt, The Futures of European Capitalism (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002); Interviews by the author with official from the Office of the Chancellor, 18 Sept. 2001 and with a member of the German Social Advisory Council, 18 July 2001. 29. Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Sozialordnung, 'Eckpunkte für eine neue Altersversorgung'. 30. W. Schäuble, Mitten im Leben (Munich: Goldmann, 2000), p.23. 31. M. Hujer, 'Gemeinsame Rentenreform für Anfang 2001 geplant', Süddeutsche Zeitung, 18 Dec. 1999; H.-J. Heims, 'Wulff lehnt weitere Senkung der Renten ab', Süddeutsche Zeitung, 20 Dec. 1999. 32. 'Langfristiges Rentenkonzept angestrebt', Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 21 Jan. 2000. 33. G. Schröder, 'Brief an die Vorsitzende der CDU und den Vorsitzenden der CSU' (Berlin, 2000). Translation by the author. 34. Interview by the author with an official from the Federation of German Pension Insurance Institutes, 25 July 2001. 35. Koalitionsarbeitsgruppe SPD und Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, 'Arbeitspapier der Koalitionsarbeitsgruppe Rentenstrukturreform' (2000); 'Riester will Rentengespräche ohne Tabus', Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 18 Jan. 2000. 36. 'Union will Rentenniveau noch weiter senken', Frankfurter Rundschau, 19 Jan. 2000; 'Union: Rentenkonsens nur mit Demographieformel', Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 20 Jan. 2000. 37. SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, 'Deutschland erneuern: Rentenreform 2000' (Berlin, 2000). 38. Riester, Mut zur Wirklichkeit, p.152; A.r Hagelüken, 'Union verlangt für Rente ein Mindestniveau', Süddeutsche Zeitung, 30 June 2000. 39. SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, 'Das Konzept für eine Rentenstrukturreform' (Berlin, 2000). 40. 'Witwenrente bei Wiederheirat erhalten', Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 13 April 2000. 41. SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, 'Deutschland erneuern: Rentenreform 2000'. 42. Riester, Mut zur Wirklichkeit, p.149. 43. 'Union will soziale Gerechtigkeit zum Wahlthema machen', Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 2 April 2001. 44. Deutscher Bundestag, 'Antrag der Fraktion der CDU/CSU: Unzumutbare Belastungen in der Hinterbliebenensicherung zurücknehmen (Drucksache 14/6042)' (Berlin, 2000). 45. A. Hagelüken, 'Interview mit Bundesarbeitsminister Walter Riester', Süddeutsche Zeitung, 9 May 2001. Translation by the author. 46. SPD, 'Sicherheit im Wandel (Beschluss des Parteitags der SPD)' (Nuremburg, 2001). 47. CDU, 'Freie Menschen, starkes Land: Vertrag für eine sichere Zukunft (Beschluss des 14. Parteitages)' (Dresden, 2001). 48. A. Hagelüken, 'Interview mit Bundesarbeitsminister Walter Riester', Süddeutsche Zeitung, 25 Jan. 2001. Translation by the author. 49. SPD, 'Erneuerung und Zusammenhalt: Regierungsprogramm 2002–2006 (Beschluss des Ausserordentlichen Parteitags der SPD)' (Berlin, 2002); CDU/CSU, 'Leistung und Sicherheit: Regierungsprogramm 2002–2006' (Berlin, 2000). 50. European Commission, General Government Data Part II: Tables by Series (Brussels, 2005). 51. Padgett, 'Welfare Bias in the Party System'; D. Fuchs and E. Roller, 'Demokratie und Sozialstaat', in Statistisches Bundesamt (eds.), Datenreport 2002 (Bonn: Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, 2002); E. Roller, 'Shrinking the Welfare State: Citizens' Attitudes towards Cuts in Social Spending in Germany in the 1990s', German Politics 8 (1999), pp.21–39. 52. M. Hering, 'Rough Transition: Institutional Change in Germany's "Frozen" Welfare State' (Ph.D. Dissertation: Johns Hopkins University, 2004), Tables 5.2, 7.1, 7.2. 53. Ibid., Table 7.1. 54. Pierson, Dismantling the Welfare State?; C. Hood, 'The Risk Game and the Blame Game', Government and Opposition 37 (2002), pp.15–37. 55. Myles and Pierson, 'The Comparative Political Economy of Pension Reform'; L.A. Pal and R.K. Weaver, 'The Politics of Pain', in L.A. Pal and R.K. Weaver (eds.), The Government Taketh Away (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2003). 56. Pal and Weaver, 'The Politics of Pain'; Pierson, Dismantling the Welfare State?; Hood, 'The Risk Game and the Blame Game'. 57. Scharpf, Games Real Actors Play, pp.183–8. 58. Weaver, 'The Politics of Blame Avoidance'. 59. Myles and Pierson, 'The Comparative Political Economy of Pension Reform', pp.320–24.

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