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Peppered moth revisited: analysis of recent decreases in melanic frequency and predictions for the future

1993; Oxford University Press; Volume: 48; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/j.1095-8312.1993.tb00884.x

1095-8312

G. Mani, M. E. N. Majerus,

Species Distribution and Climate Change

In a recent review article by Mani published in 1990, it was shown that the changes in the frequency of the morph carbonaria can be explained through a migration-selection model and the model is capable of reproducing the decrease in the carbonaria frequency since the enactment of Clean Air Acts. In this paper new data both for carbonaria and for insularia up to 1990 for West Kirby in NW England and for Cambridge are presented. In the earlier review, the data for West Kirby extended to 1987 and for Cambridge to 1985. Data not previously published for the carbonaria and the insularia frequencies at sites in Northwood in Middlesex, Egham in Surrey and Ringwood in Hampshire are also presented. A migration-selection model was used to predict the change in the frequencies of the melanic morphs up to the year 2010. All the data are compared with the predictions of the model. It is encouraging that the data follow the theoretical predictions.