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Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

2009; Association of Field Ornithologists; Volume: 80; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/j.1557-9263.2009.00207.x

1557-9263

Conor P. McGowan, Joshua J. Millspaugh, Mark R. Ryan, Casey D. Kruse, Greg Pavelka,

Rangeland and Wildlife Management

Journal of Field OrnithologyVolume 80, Issue 1 p. 79-87 Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data La estimación de la supervivencia de polluelos precociales durante el periodo pre-volantón usando un análisis de curva de captura y datos con clases de edades basados en conteos Conor P. McGowan, Corresponding Author Conor P. McGowan 302 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Bldg., Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211, USA Corresponding author. Current address: Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, MD 20708–4017. Email: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorJoshua J. Millspaugh, Joshua J. Millspaugh 302 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Bldg., Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211, USASearch for more papers by this authorMark R. Ryan, Mark R. Ryan 302 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Bldg., Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211, USASearch for more papers by this authorCasey D. Kruse, Casey D. Kruse U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, P.O. Box 710, Yankton, South Dakota 57078, USASearch for more papers by this authorGreg Pavelka, Greg Pavelka U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, P.O. Box 710, Yankton, South Dakota 57078, USASearch for more papers by this author Conor P. McGowan, Corresponding Author Conor P. McGowan 302 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Bldg., Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211, USA Corresponding author. Current address: Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, MD 20708–4017. Email: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorJoshua J. Millspaugh, Joshua J. Millspaugh 302 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Bldg., Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211, USASearch for more papers by this authorMark R. Ryan, Mark R. Ryan 302 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Bldg., Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211, USASearch for more papers by this authorCasey D. Kruse, Casey D. Kruse U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, P.O. Box 710, Yankton, South Dakota 57078, USASearch for more papers by this authorGreg Pavelka, Greg Pavelka U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, P.O. Box 710, Yankton, South Dakota 57078, USASearch for more papers by this author First published: 20 February 2009 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1557-9263.2009.00207.xCitations: 9Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstracten ABSTRACT Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993–2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. RESUMENes Estimar el éxito reproductivo de aves con polluelos precociales puede ser difícil debido a que los polluelos dejan el nido poco después de eclosionar y los individuos o nidadas pueden ser difíciles de seguir. Los investigadores a menudo estiman la supervivencia durante el periodo pre-volantón y aunque son efectivos, los métodos de marcaje y recaptura no son siempre factibles por razones del costo, tiempo y bienestar del animal. Usando una población amenazada de Charadrius melodus que se reproduce sobre el Río Missouri, presentamos un método para estimar la supervivencia de polluelos durante el periodo pre-volantón usando datos de largo plazo (1993–2005) con clases de edades, basados en conteos. Utilizamos un análisis de curva de captura modificada y datos colectados durante tres periodos de muestreo de cinco días cada uno, cerca del medio de la época reproductiva. Este método tiene algunos supuestos ecológicos y estadísticos y nuestros análisis fueron diseñados para minimizar la probabilidad de violar dichos supuestos. Por ejemplo, limitando los periodos de muestreo a solo cinco días dio el resultado razonable de que el tamaño de la población fue estable durante el periodo de muestreo. Las estimaciones de la supervivencia diaria anual variaron entre 0.825 (DE = 0.03) y 0.931 (0.02), dependiendo del año y periodo de muestreo. Estas estimaciones dependieron de la suposición de una supervivencia constante durante el periodo pre-volantón y de ningún cambio en la estructura de la edad de la población. El promedio de la probabilidad de supervivencia en la etapa pre-volantón varió desde 0.126 hasta 0.188. Nuestros resultados son similares a otras estimaciones publicadas para esta especie en hábitats similares. Este método de estimar la supervivencia de los polluelos podría ser útil para una variedad de especies de aves precociales cuando los métodos de marcaje y recaptura no son factibles y cuando solo están disponibles datos con clases de edades basados en conteos. LITERATURE CITED Beissenger, S. R., and M. Z. Peery. 2007. Reconstructing the historic demography of an endangered seabird. Ecology 88: 296–305. Bent, A. C. 1929. 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