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A Hybrid Multi‐Agent/Spatial Interaction Model System for Petrol Price Setting

2005; Wiley; Volume: 9; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/j.1467-9671.2005.00204.x

1467-9671

Alison Heppenstall, Andrew Evans, Mark Birkin,

Transportation and Mobility Innovations

Abstract This paper examines the use of multi‐agent simulations (MAS) to model the petrol market. The development of a purely agent based model for petrol prices is presented. Failings within this model are discussed and an alternative strategy for controlling the price of each petrol station based on population of customers is considered. Individual level modelling of customers is too computationally intensive; therefore a spatial interaction model was used to estimate the sales and linked to the agent system to create a hybrid model. To evaluate how effective this hybrid model was, a comparison was made with an existing data set of real petrol prices collected over a two month period. This was achieved both statistically and visually with the use of a Geographical Information System (GIS). Experimentation revealed that the hybrid model outperformed the agent model. Investigation into the behaviour and sensitivity of the system (for example, how prices diffuse spatially) was undertaken by means of idealised simulations.