Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Crime, Irregular Warfare, and Institutional Failure in Latin America: Guatemala as a Case Study

2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 34; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/1057610x.2011.545937

1521-0731

Hal Brands,

Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance

Abstract This article examines the current crisis in Guatemala as a case study in the phenomenon of "criminal insurgency" in Latin America. Since the close of Guatemala's civil war in 1996, crime—especially violent crime—has increased dramatically, to the point that drug traffickers, organized crime syndicates, and youth gangs are effectively waging a form of irregular warfare against the state. The police, the judiciary, and entire local and departmental governments are rife with criminal infiltrators; murder statistics have surpassed civil-war levels in recent years; criminal operatives assassinate government officials and troublesome members of the political class; and chunks of territory are now effectively under the control of criminal groups. All this has led to growing civic disillusion and eroded the authority and legitimacy of the government. Rampant crime is causing a crisis of the democratic state. Acknowledgments The author thanks Jim Kurtz for his comments on an earlier draft of this article. Notes 1. Marc Lacey, "Drug Gangs Use Violence to Sway Guatemala Vote," New York Times, 4 August 2007. 2. Miguel Angel Centeno, Blood and Debt: War and the Nation-State in Latin America (University Park: Penn State University Press, 2003). See also Hal Brands, Latin America's Cold War (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2010). 3. "Latin America Tops Murder Tables," BBC News, 26 November 2008. Avaiable at news.bbc. co.uk/2/hi/americas/7750054.stm (accessed 17 September 2009); Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro, "Youth, Violence, and Democracy," Current History (February 2007), pp. 64–69; John P. Sullivan, "Transnational Gangs: The Impact of Third Generation Gangs in Central America," Air & Space Power Journal (Spanish Edition), Second Trimester 2008. Avaiable at airpower.maxwell.af.mil.apjintrnational/apj-s/2008/2tri08/sullivan eng.htm (accessed 21 September 2009). 4. The preceding two paragraphs draw on Hal Brands, "Third-Generation Gangs and Criminal Insurgency in Latin America," Small Wars Journal, July 2009. Avaiable at smallwarsjournal. com/blog/journal/docs-temp/269-brands.pdf (accessed 22 July 2009); William Langewiesche, "City of Fear," Vanity Fair, April 2007. Avaiable at www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/04/langewiesche200704 (accessed 14 November 2009). 5. Ibid.; See, for instance, John P. Sullivan, "Third Generation Street Gangs: Turf, Cartels, and Netwarriors," Transnational Organized Crime 3(2) (Autumn 1997), pp. 95–108; Max Manwaring, Street Gangs: The New Urban Insurgency (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2005). 6. Sullivan, "Third Generation Street Gangs"; Manwaring, Street Gangs. 7. Department of Defense, Irregular Warfare (IW) Joint Operating Concept (JOC), 11 September 2007, pp. 1–6. Available at www.dtic.mil/futurejointwarfare/concepts/iw_joc1_0.pdf (accessed 17 November 2009). 8. UN Office on Drugs and Crime, Crime and Development in Central America (New York: United Nations, 2007), pp. 25–38; U.S. Agency for International Development, Central America and Mexico Gang Assessment (Washington, DC: Office of Regional Sustainable Development, 2006), passim. 9. Scott Stewart and Alex Posey, "Mexico: The War with the Cartels in 2009," Stratfor, 9 December 2009; Hal Brands, Mexico's Narco-Insurgency and U.S. Counter-Drug Policy (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2009). 10. Samuel Logan, "Riots Reveal Organized Crime Power in Brazil," International Relations and Security Network, 18 May 2006. 11. Kevin Casas-Zamora, "Guatemalastan: How to Prevent a Failed State in Our Midst," Brookings Institution, 22 May 2009. Available at www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0522_guatemala_casaszamora.aspx (accessed 2 June 2009); Michael Deibert, "Guatemala's Death Rattle: Drugs vs. Democracy," World Policy Journal 25(4) (Winter 2008/2009), pp. 167–168. 12. Lacey, "Drug Gangs Use Violence to Sway Guatemala Vote"; "Guatemala: A Civil War's Continuing Legacy," Stratfor, 14 August 2007. Available at www.stratfor.com/guatemala_civil_wars_continuing_legacy (accessed 22 August 2009); Council on Hemispheric Affairs, "Guatemala: Central American Crime Capital," February 2009. Available at www.coha.org/guatemala-%e2%80%93-central-american-crime-capital/ (accessed 1 November 2009). 13. Mark Schneider, "Guatemala: The Next to Fall?" Global Post, 16 April 2009. 14. Patrick Gavigan, "Organized Crime, Illicit Power Structures and Guatemala's Threatened Peace Process," International Peacekeeping 16(1) (2009), p. 70. 15. "Guatemala's Colom Urges to Fight Violence," Radio Majaguabo, 3 October 2008. Available at www.radiomajaguabo.co.cu/English%20Version/Pages/Internationals/Inter2008/Internationals_4_10_(3).html (accessed 7 December 2009). 16. See Greg Grandin, The Last Colonial Massacre: Latin America and the Cold War (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2004); and David McCreary, Rural Guatemala, 1760–1940 (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1994). Brands, Latin America's Cold War, pp. 206–210. 17. Susanne Jonas, Of Centaurs and Doves: Guatemala's Peace Process (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2000), p. 24; idem., The Battle for Guatemala: Rebels, Death Squads, and U.S. Power (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991), p. 155. 18. Richard Millett and Thomas Shannon Stiles, "Peace without Security: Central America in the 21st Century," Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations 9(1) (Winter–Spring 2008), pp. 31–33; USAID, Central America and Mexico Gang Assessment: Annex 2: Guatemala Profile (Washington, DC: Office of Regional Sustainable Development, 2006). 19. Mark Schneider, International Crisis Group, "Guatemala at a Crossroads," Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, 9 June 2009. Available at www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6175%20 (accessed 24 June 2009); Department of State, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, "Counternarcotics and Law Enforcement Country Program: Guatemala," 20 January 2009. Available at www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/fs/113709.htm (accessed 1 December 2009); Schneider, "Guatemala: The Next to Fall?" 20. "Guatemala," 2010 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, 1 March 2010. Available at www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2010/vol1/137196.htm (accessed 26 May 2010). 21. Author's Telephone Interview with DEA official, 23 November 2009; "Guatemala: Expanding Influence of the Cartels," Stratfor, 2 March 2009. 22. "Statement of Rogelio E. Guevara, Chief of Operations, Drug Enforcement Administration, Before House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, October 10, 2002." Available at www.justice.gov/dea/pubs/cngrtest/ct101002a.html (accessed 22 August 2009). 23. Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, "Guatemala," 2009 International Narcotics Strategy Report: Volume II, 27 February 2009. Available at www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2009/vol2/116554.htm (accessed 27 March 2009); "Narcos obligan a finqueros a venderles sus propiedades," Prensa Libre, 7 December 2008. 24. Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, "Guatemala," 2009 International Narcotics Strategy Report: Volume I, 27 February 2009. Available at www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2009/vol2/116554.htm (accessed 27 March 2009). 25. Silvia Otero, "Zetas ganan terreno en suelo guatemalteco," El Universal, 4 December 2008; Author's Telephone Interview with DEA official, 23 November 2009. 26. "Guatemala: A Spying Case and Potential Cartel Involvement," Stratfor, 9 September 2008. 27. "Guatemalan Governor Emerges Unscathed from Attack," Latin American Herald Tribune, 2 August 2009. 28. Lacey, "Drug Gangs Use Violence to Sway Guatemala Vote"; Council on Hemispheric Affairs, "Bleak Prospects for a Democratic Renaissance in Guatemala," 6 August 2007. Available at www.coha.org/bleak-prospects-for-a-democratic-renaissance-in-guatemala/ (accessed 22 August 2009). 29. Telephone interview conducted by the author with a DEA official, 23 July 2008. 30. Quoted in Author's Telephone Interview with DEA official, 23 November 2009; see also Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2009—Guatemala. Available at www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=22&year=2009&country=7617 (accessed 18 November 2009); Mariela Castañon, "Autoridades explican balacera en Santa Ana Huista, Huehuetenango," La Hora, 1 December 2008; "Narcos mexicanos retan poder de mafias locales," Prensa Libre, 2 December 2008; Ken Ellingwood, "Drug Violence Spilling Into Guatemala," Los Angeles Times, 4 June 2009. 31. "Guatemala: Otro territorio Zeta," BBC Mundo, 17 June 2009; Juan Carlos Llorca and Frank Bajak, "Mexican Drug Cartels Expand Abroad," Associated Press, 21 July 2009; Ellingwood, "Drug Violence Spilling into Guatemala"; James Painter, "Narcos amenazan a Guatemala," BBC Mundo, 17 August 2009. 32. Painter, "Narcos amenazan a Guatemala." 33. Washington Office on Latin America, Hidden Powers in Post-Conflict Guatemala: Illegal Armed Groups and the Forces Behind Them (Washington, DC: Washington Office on Latin America, 2006), p. 5; Diana Villiers Negroponte, The Merida Initiative and Central America: The Challenges of Containing Public Insecurity and Criminal Violence (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2009), p. 14. 34. WOLA, Hidden Powers in Post-Conflict Guatemala, pp. 5–33; Gavigan, "Organized Crime, Illicit Power Structures and Guatemala's Threatened Peace Process," pp. 64–66; Juan Hernández Pico, "El brazo armado de los poderes ocultos en acción," Revista Envío, April 2002. Available at www.envio.org.ni/articulo/1139 (accessed 22 March 2009). 35. Gavigan, "Organized Crime, Illicit Power Structures and Guatemala's Threatened Peace Process," p. 70; Inter-American Dialogue, "Guatemala: Ten Years After the Agreements on a Firm and Lasting Peace," May 2008, pp. 2–8. Available at www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=337 (accessed 15 June 2009); "Guatemala: la guerra por la ruta entre 'los Zetas' y 'Pelones,'" El Periódico, 26 January 2009; WOLA, Hidden Powers in Post-Conflict Guatemala, pp. 16–18, 33. In March 2010, a Guatemalan court ruled that Portillo would be extradited to the United States to face money-laundering charges. 36. Committee to Protect Journalists, "Ataques a la prensa en el 2008: Guatemala," 10 February 2009. Available at cpj.org/es/2009/02/guatemala.php (accessed 11 December 2009); Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2008 Human Rights Reports: Guatemala, 25 February 2009. Available at www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2008/wha/119161.htm (accessed 11 December 2009); "Prosecutor Gunned Down in Guatemala," Latin American Herald Tribune, 9 March 2009. 37. Washington Office on Latin America, Hidden Powers in Post-Conflict Guatemala, p. 33; Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2008 Human Rights Reports: Guatemala. 38. "Guatemala: A Civil War's Continuing Legacy," Stratfor, 14 August 2007; Miranda Louise Jasper and Colleen Cook, Guatemala: 2007 Elections and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2008); p. 4. 39. "Asesinato de policías desnuda corrupción y pugnas en Guatemala," El Nuevo Diario, 27 February 2007; "Guatemala: New President, Old Challenges," Stratfor, 15 January 2008. 40. Dennis Rodgers, Robert Muggah, and Chris Stevenson, "Gangs of Central America: Causes, Costs, and Interventions," Occasional Paper of the Small Arms Survey, May 2009, pp. 4–9; Clare Ribando Seelke, Gangs in Central America (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2008), pp. 2–5. 41. USAID, Central America and Mexico Gang Assessment: Annex 2: Guatemala Profile. 42. See Jim Kouri, "Two MS-13 Leaders in El Salvador Ordered Gang Killings in US," American Chronicle, 8 June 2007; also Department of Justice Press Release, "MS-13 Leader Sentenced to 60 Years in Federal Prison for Racketeering Conspiracy, Armed Robbery and Gun Violation," 4 May 2009. Available at baltimore.fbi.gov/dojpressrel/pressrel09/ba050409.htm (accessed 14 December 2009). 43. Villiers Negroponte, Merida Initiative and Central America, pp. 12–13. 44. Author's telephone interview with USAID official, 25 November 2009; Ribando Seelke, Gangs in Central America, pp. 4–6. 45. Author's telephone interview with Harold Sibaja, 20 November 2009; Negroponte, Merida Initiative and Central America, p. 13. 46. Millett and Stiles, "Peace without Security," p. 33; Freddy Funes, "Removal of Central American Gang Members: How Immigration Laws Fail to Reflect Global Reality," University of Miami Law Review 63(1) (Winter 2008), pp. 301–338. 47. UN Office on Crime and Drugs, Crime and Development in Central America, pp. 57–64; Federico Brevé, "The Maras: A Menace to the Americas," Military Review, July 2007, pp. 91–92. 48. "Ataque en prisión de Guatemala," BBC Mundo, 7 September 2005; "7 Dead Via Decapitation and 10 Wounded in Guatemala Prison," Latin American Herald Tribune, 23 November 2008; "Prisiones son focos de corrupción y crimen," Prensa Libre, 15 December 2008. 49. John Burnett, "Private Assassins Target Gangs in Guatemala," National Public Radio, 22 December 2008. Available at www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=98593139 (accessed 22 July 2009); "Five Members of Guatemalan Family Killed, Burned," Latin American Herald Tribune, 12 April 2009. 50. Samuel Lowenberg, "Street Gangs Target and Kill Bus Drivers in Guatemala," WorldFocus, 30 March 2009. Available at worldfocus.org/blog/2009/03/30/street-gangs-target-and-kill-bus-drivers-in-guatemala/4685/ (accessed 22 July 2009); Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2008 Human Rights Reports: Guatemala; "Guatemalan Bus Drivers on Strike to Protest Murders," Latin American Herald Tribune, 17 March 2009; Mariela Castañon, "Siguen los ataques en autobuses," La Hora, 28 October 2009. 51. USAID, Central America and Mexico Gang Assessment: Annex 2: Guatemala Country Profile. 52. "El Presidente Colom responsabiliza al narcotráfico de la corrupción en la Policía," EFE, 9 August 2009. Available at www.soitu.es/soitu/2009/08/09/info/1249833303_409471.html (accessed 4 December 2009); Sarah Grainger, "Guatemala Drug Trade Leaves Trail of Local Addicts," Reuters, 26 August 2009. 53. Joy Agner, "The Silent Violence of Peace in Guatemala," NACLA Report on the Americas, 14 May 2008; "Guatemala admite que el cártel del Golfo ocupa todo un departamento," El País, 3 December 2008. 54. Manuel Roig-Franzia, "Linked Killings Undercut Trust in Guatemala," Washington Post, 23 March 2007; Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, "Counternarcotics and Law Enforcement Country Program: Guatemala," 20 January 2009; "Corrupción y tráfico de influencias, en el triple asesinato Musa-Rosenberg en Guatemala," La Jornada, 18 June 2009. 55. "MP confirma que antigua cúpula de PNC era una organización delictiva," Prensa Libre, 12 November 2009; Inter-American Dialogue, "Ten Years after the Agreements on a Firm and Lasting Peace," p. 2. 56. Julio Lara, "Investigan a 684 policías acusados de varios delitos," Prensa Libre, 14 April 2010. 57. Mirando Louise Jasper and Collean Cook, Guatemala: 2007 Elections and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2008), p. 5; Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2009—Guatemala; "Guatemala to Beef Up Police Force with Ex-Soldiers," Latin American Herald Tribune, 10 February 2006. 58. Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, "Guatemala," 2009 International Narcotics Strategy Report—Volume I. 59. "Guatemala: Colom propone elevar los impuestos hasta el 11,7 por ciento del PIB," Infolatam, 25 November 2009. Available at www.infolatam.com/entrada/guatemala_colom_propone_elevar_los_impue-17491.html (accessed 2 December 2009); Casas-Zamora, "Guatemalastan"; Schneider, "Guatemala at a Crossroads." 60. See Juan Hernández Pico, "The Rosenberg Case: A Guatemalan Labyrinth," Revista Envío (English edition), June 2009. Available at www.envio.org.ni/articulo/4015 (accessed 13 November 2009); "Guatemala Protests Planned as UN Group Probes Murder," Agence France Press, 15 May 2009; Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2008 Human Rights Reports: Guatemala; "Debilidad institucional," El Periódico, 15 June 2009; Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2007: Corruption in Judicial Systems (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 210–212. 61. "Guatemala reconoce la debilidad de su Ejército para combatir el narcotráfico en la frontera," Europa Press, 23 October 2009; "Guatemalan Police Missing 2000 Firearms," Latin American Herald Tribune, 10 December 2008; Ellingwood, "Drug Violence Spilling into Guatemala"; Assistant Secretary of State Thomas A. Shannon's Testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Committee on the Western Hemisphere, "Central America and the Merida Initiative," 12 May 2008. Available at mexidata.info/id1832.html (accessed 14 July 2009). 62. DEA, Intelligence Division, "Country Brief: Guatemala," April 2003. Available at www.hawaii.edu/hivandaids/Guatemala_Country_Brief__Drug_Situation_Report.pdf (accessed 21 November 2009); "Guatemala: A Civil War's Continuing Legacy"; "Cartel Arsenal Reportedly Stolen from Guatemalan Army," Latin American Herald Tribune, 4 June 2009; "Guatemalan Police Missing 2000 Firearms." 63. "Statement of Rogelio E. Guevara"; see also Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2007, pp. 210–214. 64. "Guatemala's Vice President at the Heritage Foundation," Guatemala Times, 3 December 2008; "Azota violencia de maras en Guatemala," El Siglo de Torreón, 26 December 2004; "Guerra contra pandillas," Noticias Aliadas, 13 October 2003. 65. USAID, Central America and Mexico Gang Assessment: Annex 2: Guatemala Country Profile; Agner, "Silent Violence of Peace in Guatemala"; Dina Fernández, "Castresana echa chispas (y con razón)," El Periódico, 4 February 2009. 66. Corporación Latinobarómetro, Informe 2008, pp. 91, 103; USAID, Central America and Mexico Gang Assessment: Annex 2: Guatemala Country Profile. 67. Gerson Ortiz, "Empresas de seguridad privada reflejan la debilidad del Estado," La Hora, 9 October 2009; Inter-American Dialogue, "Ten Years After the Agreements on a Firm and Lasting Peace," p. 13. 68. NC Aizenman, "Self-Styled Justice in Guatemala," Washington Post, 24 February 2006; Agner, "Silent Violence of Peace in Guatemala"; Jill Replogle, "In Guatemala, a Rise in Vigilante Justice," Christian Science Monitor, 6 October 2005. 69. Maite Rico, "La ONU investigará en Guatemala el asesinato del abogado Rosenberg," El País, 13 May 2009; Courtney Carvill, "Guatemala: Just Holding on to Democracy," Spero News, 13 July 2009. 70. Council on Hemispheric Affairs, "Guatemala: Central American Crime Capital"; Schneider, "Guatemala: The Next to Fall?"; Author's telephone interview with USAID official, 25 November 2009. 71. Clare Ribando Seelke, Merida Initiative for Mexico and Central America: Funding and Policy Issues (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2009), pp. 7–13. 72. "Guatemala: Ten Year Country Report," in USAID Greenbook. Available at gbk.eads.usaidallnet.gov/query/do (accessed 3 December 2009) 73. Author's telephone interview with DEA official, 23 November 2009; Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, "Guatemala," 2009 International Narcotics Strategy Report: Volume II. 74. Author's telephone interview with USAID official, 25 November 2009; Author's interview with Harold Sibaja, 20 November 2009; "24-Hour Courts," USAID Fact Sheet, June 2008. Available at www.usaid.gov/gt/docs/fact_sheet_rol_24hour_courts.pdf (accessed 19 November 2009). 75. Author's interview with Harold Sibaja, 20 November 2009. 76. Francis Fukuyama, "The Latin American Experience," Journal of Democracy 19(4) (2008), p. 78.