Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Family Formation in the Baltic Countries: A Transformation in the Legacy of state socialism

2008; Routledge; Volume: 39; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/01629770802031218

1751-7877

Kalev Katus, Allan Puur, Luule Sakkeus,

Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences

Abstract This article examines the transformation of nuptiality patterns in the Baltic countries since the late 1960s, in the context of long-term trends. The aim of the study is to compare the entry into first conjugal union in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and analyze the position of the Baltic countries in a broader European perspective. The analyses employ microdata from national surveys conducted in the framework of the European Family and Fertility Surveys program. Our main results on the timing and mode of union formation show that in Estonia and Latvia the shift from direct marriage to cohabitation started well before the fall of the state socialist regime, and followed a trajectory close to Scandinavian countries. In Lithuania, on the other hand, the change in the pattern of union formation has been much slower. The article discusses the factors underlying the observed similarities and dissimilarities in union formation. Keywords: Union formationmarriagecohabitationcomparative analysisfamily and fertility surveysBaltic countries Acknowledgement The article has been prepared in the framework of research theme 0132703s05 by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Science and benefited from the support of the Estonian Science Foundation (grant no. 7253). Notes Note 1. The present article employs a comparative perspective to analyze the dynamics of family formation in the Baltic countries and place the region into a broader European context. Along with the comparison between individual countries, the patterns in the Baltic region are compared to four major regions–northern, western, southern and eastern Europe. The definition of these regions applied in the article follows a delineation that has been used in demographic studies to outline the transformation of family and fertility formation (for example, Coleman 1996 Coleman, D (ed.). 1996. Europe's Population in the 1990s, New York: Oxford University Press. [Google Scholar]; van de Kaa 1999 Van de Kaa, D. 1999. “Europe and its Population: The Long View”. In European Populations. Unity in Diversity, Edited by: Van de Kaa, D, Leridon, H, Gesano, G and Okolski, M. 1–50. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Pinelli et al. 2001 Pinelli, A, Hoffmann-Nowotny, HJ and Fux, B. 2001. Fertility and New Types of Households and Family Formation in Europe, Strasbourg: Council of Europe Publishers. [Google Scholar]). According to the definition applied, northern Europe refers to Iceland, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, being close to the notion of Nordic countries. Within that group, a more specific reference is sometimes made to Scandinavian countries. Western Europe is used to denote Ireland, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Southern Europe encompasses Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus. Eastern Europe refers to Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, East Germany (until reunification), Hungary, Poland, Romania and the Slovak Republic. In a broader view, the concept of eastern Europe could be also extended to Albania and the countries of ex-Yugoslavia in the Balkans, the Russian Federation, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine, but the latter countries are not explicitly considered in the given operationalization. In terms of the current geopolitical division, the comparisons cover the member states of the EU and EFTA. 2. Due to the relatively short exposure to the FFS, detailed analysis of family initiation patterns after 1990 should be postponed until the data from a new round of comparative surveys become available. Estonia was the first among the Baltic countries to carry out a new survey as a part of the Gender and Generations Program in 2005; the data are currently being checked and cleaned. In Lithuania, the data collection took place in 2006. In Latvia, the plans for a new survey are currently less advanced. 3. Hajnal dubbed it simply the European marriage pattern, for the sake of brevity. In his article (1965), the term west European marriage pattern is used for the sake of clarity when comparing western and eastern Europe, delineated by the line from St Petersburg to Trieste. The term late-marriage/low prevalence pattern has also been used in this meaning. In the present article, the terms are used interchangeably. 4. Singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM) is the mean age at first marriage among those who marry. It is usually computed from census data, from the proportions of singles in each age group. In many instances, especially for periods in the past, SMAM is preferable to statistics derived from marriage registration, which are likely to suffer from incompleteness and do not distinguish between first and later marriages. For a technical discussion of SMAM, see Hajnal (1953b Hajnal, J. 1953b. Age at Marriage and Proportions Marrying. Population Studies, 8(2): 111–36. [Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]). 5. The east European marriage type refers to SMAM of 20–22 years and the proportions of never marrying women of about 5–10%. Geographically, this pattern prevailed in Bosnia, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Slovakia, whereas the areas that later became the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia, alongside the Baltic countries featured the west European pattern. In non-European populations, the SMAM was typically under 21 years for women and the proportion of never marrying did not exceed 5%. Some areas of Russia and the Balkan countries at the turn of the twentieth century featured proportions of never marrying women around 1–3% and SMAMs of 18–20 years, which resemble the marriage pattern among non-European populations (United Nations 1990 United Nations. 1990. Patterns of First Marriage. Timing and Prevalence, New York: United Nations. [Google Scholar]). 6. The nuptiality index Im is a statistical tool, developed by Ansley Coale to measure the contribution of various behavioral factors to the level of overall fertility. Compared to Hajnal's measures, Coale's nuptiality index combines the timing and prevalence of marriage into a single measure. In establishing a statistical cut-off level of the west European marriage pattern, the nuptiality index yielded a perfect separation of late-marriage/low prevalence pattern–there were no provinces with an Im less than 0.55 east of the line (Coale and Watkins 1986 Coale, A and Watkins, S (eds). 1986. The Decline of Fertility in Europe, Princeton: Princeton University Press. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). 7. Judging by the evidence from reconstituted parish records from R[otilde]uge in 1661–1996, Palli proposed that the mean age at first marriage could have been 23–24 among females (1973, 1996). This conjecture would extend the characteristic features of the west European marriage pattern in the Baltic area back to the late seventeenth century. In this view, the somewhat earlier marriage in the first half of the eighteenth century may be interpreted as a response to favorable economic conditions, particularly to the availability of farmland, after the devastation of the Great Northern War. Similar fluctuations in the marital timing are well documented elsewhere in pre-modern Europe (e.g. Wrigley & Schofield 1981 Wrigley, A and Schofield, R. 1981. The Population History of England 1541–1871, London: Edward Arnold. [Google Scholar]). 8. In north-western Europe servants apparently constituted up to 10–12% of the total population (Reher 1998 Reher, D. 1998. Family Ties in Western Europe: Persistent Contrasts. Population and Development Review, 24(2): 203–34. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). 9. According to a comprehensive study by the United Nations Population Division, a decrease in SMAM and a rise in the proportion never-marrying was documented in Belgium, Denmark, Finland and Germany before WWII (United Nations 1990 United Nations. 1990. Patterns of First Marriage. Timing and Prevalence, New York: United Nations. [Google Scholar]). 10. The conclusions about Lithuania are hampered by the availability of interwar census data from a single time point (1926). 11. After the turn of the 1990s, the age at first marriage in the Baltic countries started to increase, however, for several years the difference with the countries of northern and western Europe continued to expand and it is only today that the difference is dropping below the levels attained in the late 1980s (Council of Europe 2006 Council of Europe. 2006. Recent Demographic Developments in Europe 2005, Strasbourg: Council of Europe Publishing. [Google Scholar]). 12. In terms of coverage, the FFS secured a good representation of major regions of Europe. Following the delineation applied in the article, in northern Europe the program covered Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. western Europe was represented by Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and from southern Europe, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain participated in the program. In eastern Europe, the survey covered Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia, the data on the former East Germany are also available, separately from the western Länder. From overseas countries, Canada, New Zealand and the USA also participated in the FFS but they are not included in the analyses presented in the article. 13. A description of survey methodology, together with an overview of the main findings is available from country reports published by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (Zvidrins et al. 1998 Zvidrins, P, Ezera, L and Greitans, A. 1998. Fertility and Family Surveys in Countries of the ECE Region. Standard Country Report. Latvia , New York and Geneva: United Nations. [Google Scholar]; Katus et al. 2000 Katus, K, Puur, A and Sakkeus, L. 2000. Fertility and Family Surveys in Countries of the ECE Region. Standard Country Report. Estonia, New York and Geneva: United Nations. [Google Scholar]; Stankuniene et al. 2000 Stankuniene, V, Baublyte, M, Kanopiene, V and Mikulioniene, S. 2000. Fertility and Family Surveys in Countries of the ECE Region. Standard Country Report. Lithuania, New York and Geneva: United Nations. [Google Scholar]). 14. Strict validity tests involve the comparison of the data to external sources, either at the aggregate level or through individual level record matching (Vaessen 1993 Vaessen, M. 1993. “Evaluation of Population Data: Errors and Deficiencies”. In Readings in Population Research Methodology, 1, Edited by: Bogue, DJ, Arriaga, EE, Anderton, DG and Rumsey, GW. 4:1–67. Chicago: Social Development Center. [Google Scholar]). In the case of the Estonian FFS, the latter method was applied to assess the accuracy of survey responses on various items against individual records from the population census, taken five years prior to the survey, which had served as a sampling frame. The results confirmed the reliability of partnership histories collected in the survey (EKDK 1995b EKDK. 1995a. Estonian Family and Fertility Survey. Methodological Report, RU Series A, 39 , Tallinn: Eesti K[otilde]rgkoolidevaheline Demouuringute Keskus. [Google Scholar]; Katus et al. 2000 Katus, K, Puur, A and Sakkeus, L. 2000. Fertility and Family Surveys in Countries of the ECE Region. Standard Country Report. Estonia, New York and Geneva: United Nations. [Google Scholar]). Among other things, compared to the census the FFS data proved superior in capturing the de facto conjugal status of the respondents. Perhaps even stronger support for the validity of information on marriage and cohabitation was provided by the consistency with residence histories of the respondents, which included the moves to start living together with a partner. 15. The working sample focusing on native population comprised 4,979 respondents from Estonia, 2,308 from Latvia, and 4,271 from Lithuania. 16. Median age refers to the point where half of the cohort has experienced an event. In the life course analysis, the measure has an advantage over the mean age because it can be calculated also for these cohorts which have not yet completed the process. In the present study, medians can be calculated for all cohorts except 1969–1973, which was still at an early stage of union formation at the time of data collection. 17. For the youngest cohort the decrease is slightly overestimated because the data do not cover unions contracted at older ages. 18. There are no data available on contraceptive prevalence from the Soviet statistics. According to the estimates for the Soviet Union as a whole, in the late 1980s the percentage of married women in reproductive age who used the pill accounted for 1.4%, condom 4.1%, and IUD 13.1% (Avdeev 1994 Avdeev, A. 1994. “Contraception and Abortions: Trends in the USSR and Prospects for the 1990s”. In Demographic Trends and Patterns in the Soviet Union Before 1991, Edited by: Lutz, W, Scherbov, S and Volkov, A. 131–46. London and New York: Routledge. [Google Scholar]). The distribution according to a centralized scheme gives no reason to assume a much better access to contraceptives in the Baltic countries–condoms were in short supply and the use of the pill was discouraged by health authorities. The low contraceptive prevalence is also highlighted by the comparisons based on the FFS data (Schoenmakers & Lodewijckx 1999 Schoenmakers, R and Lodewijckx, E. 1999. Demographic Behaviour in Europe: Some Results from FFS Country Reports and Suggestions for Further Research. European Journal of Population, 15(3): 207–40. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). 19. Despite important consequences on the choice of individuals as well as reproductive health of the population, the availability of different family planning methods on the nuptiality pattern should not be overestimated. In comparison with other structural factors that provided little incentive to postpone family formation, the availability of contraceptives evidently played an instrumental role. If there was a deliberate motivation to avoid childbirth, couples could rely on abortion, which became available on request in the former Soviet Union in 1955, and was widely practiced in the Baltic countries (Avdeev et al. 1995 Avdeev, A, Blum, A and Troitskaya, I. 1995. The History of Abortion Statistics in Russia and USSR from 1900 to 1991. Population: An English Selection, 7: 39–66. [Google Scholar]). 20. Statistics reported in the Council of Europe demographic yearbook refer to total population of the countries. In Estonia, the corresponding data for the native population (excluding postwar immigrants) would take the proportion of non-marital births (63%) very close to that in Iceland (64%). Accordingly, Latvians would take the fifth position in Europe (ESA 2006 ESA. 2006. Rahvastik 2003–2004. Aastakogumik [Population 2003–2004. Yearbook], Tallinn: Eesti Statistikaamet. [Google Scholar]). 21. The study employed a linkage of individual birth records from two independent sources (the Estonian Medical Birth Register and the Civil Registration Office), and foresaw systematic evaluation of all characteristics recorded. As regards conjugal status of parents at childbirth, both registers included a separate category for non-marital cohabitation. The analysis revealed that the bulk of the decrease in the proportion of marital births during the past decade relates to the increase in the number of births to cohabiting couples. In the registers, the corresponding birth records include a complete set of information on the mother as well as on the father of the child, which distinguishes them from the records of women not living in union (single, divorced or widowed). The proportion of births to the latter has not undergone major change and is still at the level of around 10%. The same conclusion has been also supported by survey statistics (Katus 2003 Katus, K. 2003. “Non-marital Fertility in the Baltic Region”. In Unity and Diversity of Population Development: Baltic and South Caucasian Regions, RU Series D, 3, Edited by: Katus, K and Puur, A. 207–24. Tallinn: Eesti K[otilde]rgkoolidevaheline Demouuringute Keskus. [Google Scholar]). 22. The data from World Value Survey analyzed by Taagepera (2002 Taagepera, R. 2002. Baltic Values and Corruption in Comparative Context. Journal of Baltic Studies, 33(3): 243–58. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) refer to the total population of the Baltic countries, including Soviet-era settlers. A focus on the native population of the countries would have probably resulted in an even greater difference on the secularization scale between Estonia and Latvia on one hand, and Lithuania on the other hand (according to the FFS, in Estonia and Latvia adherence to religion is significantly higher among immigrant population while the opposite is true for Lithuania). 23. The scarcity of representative quantitative evidence can be compensated by other sources of information, including participant observation, in-depth interviews, etc. Despite their general usefulness, however, the latter approach has limited validity in international comparisons as exemplified, for example, in the comment by Allik and Realo (1996 Allik, J and Realo, A. 1996. On the Relationship Between Personality and Totalitarian Regimes: A Critique of Western Stereotypes. Journal of Baltic Studies, 27(4): 331–5. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).