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Computational Model for Predicting the Chance of Early Resolution in Children With Vesicoureteral Reflux

2007; Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; Volume: 178; Issue: 4S Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.juro.2007.05.093

1527-3792

Matthew J. Knudson, J. Christopher Austin, Moshe Wald, Antoine A. Makhlouf, Craig Niederberger, Christopher S. Cooper,

Urologic and reproductive health conditions

No AccessJournal of UrologyClinical research1 Oct 2007Computational Model for Predicting the Chance of Early Resolution in Children With Vesicoureteral Reflux Matthew J. Knudson, J. Christopher Austin, Moshe Wald, Antoine A. Makhlouf, Craig S. Niederberger, and Christopher S. Cooper Matthew J. KnudsonMatthew J. Knudson Division of Pediatric Urology, Department of Urology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa , J. Christopher AustinJ. Christopher Austin Division of Pediatric Urology, Department of Urology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa , Moshe WaldMoshe Wald Division of Pediatric Urology, Department of Urology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa , Antoine A. MakhloufAntoine A. Makhlouf Department of Urology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota , Craig S. NiederbergerCraig S. Niederberger Department of Urology, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois , and Christopher S. CooperChristopher S. Cooper Division of Pediatric Urology, Department of Urology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.juro.2007.05.093AboutFull TextPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookLinked InTwitterEmail Abstract Purpose: Minimally invasive treatment options and concern regarding long-term antibiotics have increased emphasis on predicting the chance of early vesicoureteral reflux resolution. Computational models, such as artificial neural networks, have been used to assist decision making in the clinical setting using complex numeric constructs to solve multivariable problems. We investigated various computational models to enhance the prediction of vesicoureteral reflux resolution. Materials and Methods: We reviewed the records of 205 children with vesicoureteral reflux, including 163 females and 42 males. In addition to reflux grade, several clinical variables were recorded from the diagnostic visit. Outcome was noted as resolved or unresolved at 1 and 2 years after diagnosis. Two separate data sets were prepared for the 1 and 2-year outcomes, sharing the same input features. The data sets were randomized into a modeling set of 155 and a cross-validation set of 50. The model was constructed with several constructs using neUROn++, a set of C++ programs that we developed, to best fit the data. Results: A linear support vector machine was found to have the highest accuracy with a test set ROC curve area of 0.819 and 0.86 for the 1 and 2-year models, respectively. The model was deployed in JavaScript® for ready availability on the Internet, allowing all input variables to be entered and calculating the odds of 1 and 2-year resolution. Conclusions: This computational model allowed the use of multiple variables to improve the individualized prediction of early reflux resolution. 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Link, Google Scholar © 2007 by American Urological AssociationFiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited byAlexander S, Arlen A, Storm D, Kieran K and Cooper C (2018) Bladder Volume at Onset of Vesicoureteral Reflux is an Independent Risk Factor for Breakthrough Febrile Urinary Tract InfectionJournal of Urology, VOL. 193, NO. 4, (1342-1346), Online publication date: 1-Apr-2015.Hidas G, Billimek J, Nam A, Soltani T, Kelly M, Selby B, Dorgalli C, Wehbi E, McAleer I, McLorie G, Greenfield S, Kaplan S and Khoury A (2018) Predicting the Risk of Breakthrough Urinary Tract Infections: Primary Vesicoureteral RefluxJournal of Urology, VOL. 194, NO. 5, (1396-1401), Online publication date: 1-Nov-2015.Cooper C (2018) Editorial CommentJournal of Urology, VOL. 192, NO. 5, (1507-1507), Online publication date: 1-Nov-2014.Minnillo B, Barbosa J, Carvas F, Penna F, Huang L, Ziniel S, Retik A and Nguyen H (2018) Development and Initial Validation of a Disease Specific Quality of Life Survey for Children With Vesicoureteral RefluxJournal of Urology, VOL. 187, NO. 5, (1828-1833), Online publication date: 1-May-2012.Cannon G, Arahna A, Graham D, Passerotti C, Silva A, Retik A and Nguyen H (2018) Improvement in Vesicoureteral Reflux Grade on Serial Imaging Predicts ResolutionJournal of Urology, VOL. 183, NO. 2, (709-713), Online publication date: 1-Feb-2010.Routh J, Gong E, Cannon G, Yu R, Gargollo P and Nelson C (2018) Variation Among Internet Based Calculators in Predicting Spontaneous Resolution of Vesicoureteral RefluxJournal of Urology, VOL. 183, NO. 4, (1568-1573), Online publication date: 1-Apr-2010. (2018) Reply by AuthorsJournal of Urology, VOL. 183, NO. 4, (1532-1532), Online publication date: 1-Apr-2010.Shiraishi K, Matsuyama H, Nepple K, Wald M, Niederberger C, Austin C and Cooper C (2018) Validation of a Prognostic Calculator for Prediction of Early Vesicoureteral Reflux Resolution in ChildrenJournal of Urology, VOL. 182, NO. 2, (687-691), Online publication date: 1-Aug-2009.Estrada C, Passerotti C, Graham D, Peters C, Bauer S, Diamond D, Cilento B, Borer J, Cendron M, Nelson C, Lee R, Zhou J, Retik A and Nguyen H (2018) Nomograms for Predicting Annual Resolution Rate of Primary Vesicoureteral Reflux: Results From 2,462 ChildrenJournal of Urology, VOL. 182, NO. 4, (1535-1541), Online publication date: 1-Oct-2009.Nepple K, Knudson M, Austin J and Cooper C (2008) Abnormal Renal Scans and Decreased Early Resolution of Low Grade Vesicoureteral RefluxJournal of Urology, VOL. 180, NO. 4S, (1643-1647), Online publication date: 1-Oct-2008.Nepple K, Knudson M, Austin J, Wald M, Makhlouf A, Niederberger C and Cooper C (2008) Adding Renal Scan Data Improves the Accuracy of a Computational Model to Predict Vesicoureteral Reflux ResolutionJournal of Urology, VOL. 180, NO. 4S, (1648-1652), Online publication date: 1-Oct-2008. Volume 178Issue 4SOctober 2007Page: 1824-1827 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2007 by American Urological AssociationKeywordsbladderuretervesico-ureteral refluxcomputer simulationcomputational biologyMetricsAuthor Information Matthew J. Knudson Division of Pediatric Urology, Department of Urology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa More articles by this author J. Christopher Austin Division of Pediatric Urology, Department of Urology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa More articles by this author Moshe Wald Division of Pediatric Urology, Department of Urology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa More articles by this author Antoine A. Makhlouf Department of Urology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota More articles by this author Craig S. Niederberger Department of Urology, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois More articles by this author Christopher S. Cooper Division of Pediatric Urology, Department of Urology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement PDF downloadLoading ...