Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Failure prediction and optimal scheduling of replacements in asbestos cement water pipes

2008; UWA Publishing; Volume: 57; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.2166/aqua.2008.035

1365-2087

Paul F. Davis, Dhammika De Silva, David Marlow, Magnus Moglia, Scott Gould, Stewart Burn,

Urban Stormwater Management Solutions

Research Article| June 01 2008 Failure prediction and optimal scheduling of replacements in asbestos cement water pipes Paul Davis; Paul Davis 1Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia E-mail: paul.davis@csiro.au Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Dhammika De Silva; Dhammika De Silva 1Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar David Marlow; David Marlow 1Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Magnus Moglia; Magnus Moglia 1Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Scott Gould; Scott Gould 1Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Stewart Burn Stewart Burn 1Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua (2008) 57 (4): 239–252. https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2008.035 Article history Received: February 12 2007 Accepted: August 21 2007 Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Cite Icon Cite Permissions Search Site Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentAll JournalsThis Journal Search Advanced Search Citation Paul Davis, Dhammika De Silva, David Marlow, Magnus Moglia, Scott Gould, Stewart Burn; Failure prediction and optimal scheduling of replacements in asbestos cement water pipes. Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua 1 June 2008; 57 (4): 239–252. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2008.035 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex Asbestos cement (AC) pipes are among the oldest assets in many water supply networks. With increasing failure rates and cost consequences, asset management tools are required to pre-empt unplanned failures and schedule future replacement at the most cost-effective time during service. This paper develops a physical probabilistic failure model for AC pipes under combined internal pressure and external loading. Uncertainty in the degradation process is accounted for using the Weibull extreme value probability distribution. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to estimate the probability of pipe failure as ageing proceeds. In the final stage of the model, a cost/benefit analysis is conducted to determine optimal scheduling of future inspection and replacement activities. The end result is a potentially useful asset management methodology in which both the probable physical lifetime and the economic lifetime of an AC pipe can be estimated. asset, degradation, economic, lifetime, pipelines, probability This content is only available as a PDF. © IWA Publishing 2008 You do not currently have access to this content.