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Linking global circulation model outputs to regional geomorphic models: a case study of landslide activity in New Zealand

2003; Inter-Research Science Center; Volume: 25; Linguagem: Inglês

10.3354/cr025135

1616-1572

Michael Schmidt, Thomas Glade,

Cryospheric studies and observations

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 25:135-150 (2003) - doi:10.3354/cr025135 Linking global circulation model outputs to regional geomorphic models: a case study of landslide activity in New Zealand Michael Schmidt*, Thomas Glade Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany *Email: michael.schmidt@csiro.au ABSTRACT: General circulation models (GCMs) were constructed for future projections of circulation patterns on a global scale. IPCC emission scenarios, adopted by GCMs, suggest that climate change is due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Application of GCMs to regional-scale studies is difficult due to the different spatial resolutions. Downscaling techniques transfer GCM results to larger scales. Rainfall-triggered landslides are a worldwide phenomenon and can cause socio-economic problems. Regional models of these geomorphic processes were linked to regionalized GCM outputs for New Zealand. Climate-model outputs from HadCM2SUL were used to produce precipitation and temperature scenarios via analog downscaling. Climate-impact studies have rarely been developed for New Zealand. For both Wellington and Hawke¹s Bay, climate-change scenarios were applied to 3 deterministic landslide models (the daily rainfall model, the antecedent daily rainfall model and the antecedent soil water status model). All of them relate landslide occurrence to climate conditions. Results give a more reliable projected probability change of landslide occurrence for Wellington than for Hawke¹s Bay. Wellington¹s cold-season precipitation is mostly associated with synoptic weather systems depending on large-scale circulation features, captured using the downscaling procedure. In contrast, Hawke¹s Bay receives its peak precipitation from frequent high-magnitude storms. Common to all 3 applied landslide models for both regions is the trend of decreased landslide activity for the target period, 2070-2099. KEY WORDS: GCM · Climate change impacts · Downscaling · Rainfall-triggered landslides · Threshold models Full text in pdf format PreviousNextExport citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 25, No. 2. Online publication date: December 05, 2003 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2003 Inter-Research.