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Brief summary of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) advanced research workshop on global climate change and local adaptation

2010; Wiley; Volume: 6; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1002/ieam.127

1551-3793

Igor Linkov, Todd S. Bridges, Ahmed A. Hady, Ingibjörg S. Jónsdóttir, Gregory A. Kiker, James H. Lambert, Marvin MacBride, José Manuel Palma‐Oliveira, Nicola Ranger, Edmond Russo, Alberto Troccoli,

Marine and environmental studies

Integrated environmental assessment and management is part of the nexus of climate change adaptation. Through sea-level rise and altered weather patterns, climate change is expected to significantly alter coastal and inland environments. Coupled with uncertain predictions for sea level rise and storm frequency and intensity, potential land use changes have generated significant environmental management and planning challenges. This has led to the investment of significant resources directed toward predicting the potential consequences of climate change. In a relatively very short time frame (certainly less than 5 y), discourse on adaptation to climate change has replaced most discussions of whether climate change is happening at all. At the current pace of the scientific and general public conversations on climate change adaptation, we are at the risk of putting the cart in front of the horse on this issue. Additional emphasis is urgently needed on rational approaches to guide decision making through the uncertainties surrounding climate change. The risk assessment and environmental management communities need to refine the available methods for developing and comparing the performance of alternative environmental and social adaptive strategies within an overall adaptive management framework. While efforts to mitigate climate change continue, plans must be developed to adapt to the risks that climate change poses to humans, infrastructure, and ecosystems alike. To discuss and develop expert answers to these questions, the NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) “Climate Change: Global Change and Local Adaptation” brought together 60 scientists, engineers, and policymakers representing 14 different nations and multiple fields of expertise reflecting the global and interdisciplinary nature of climate change research. The workshop was held in June 2010 in Hella, Iceland and chaired by Igor Linkov, Todd Bridges, and Ahmed Hady. The meeting was hosted jointly by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Engineer Research and Development Center and the University of Iceland. The workshop was supported by ENVIRON International Corporation, the NATO Science Programme, the Society for Risk Analysis, the US Environmental Protection Agency, the US Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, the US Geological Survey, and the US Navy. State of science regarding vulnerability and impacts at local and regional scales Role of risk analysis in managing the potential risks Applicability of adaptive management Strategies developing countries can use to manage the potential security risks Specific research needs for improving the value of risk analysis as applied to climate change The keynote address by the President of Iceland, Ólafur Ragnar Grímmson, highlighted the important new national and international security challenges that may be posed by climate change. Jeffery Holland, chief scientist at the USACE, Steven Stockton, director of the USACE Civil Works Program, and Lynn Scarlett, former deputy secretary of the US Department of the Interior, delivered keynote addresses describing the environmental and engineering research priorities facing the USACE and similar agencies and engineering organizations worldwide. Scarlett highlighted the importance of stakeholder involvement to policymakers involved in setting regulatory and policy agendas that have the potential to affect local, national and international communities. Workshop participants reached consensus on 3 important areas of social and environmental concerns surrounding climate change adaptation: the process for changes in coastal regions, the process for changes in inland regions, and the potential challenges to homeland security by national governments. More work is urgently needed in each of the areas below. There are 4 important aspects of adaptation to climate change within coastal areas that deserve the attention of scientists and engineers. First, coastal regions have a unique set of vulnerabilities, some more complex than others, that are distinct from other land areas that contribute to current and future risks. Second, individuals and communities have a fundamental role in the adaptation process. Third, governance plays a critical role in enabling or disabling productive adaptation responses. And, fourth, while the problems abound, there are powerful concepts and tools currently available for planning and managing adaptation at local and regional scales. There is a need to engage people in the progressive analysis and planning for uncertain future climate-induced events, as well as the adaptation process necessary to ensure that actions in response to climate change meet the objectives and preferences of stakeholders. The range of vulnerabilities facing inland regions are varied and likely to include potential changes to soil quality, water quantity and quality, ecosystem services, fire and other natural forces, and abrupt or inevitable changes in land use. In addition, inland regions will be pressured by climate impacts on coastal regions, as was the case with Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA, in the aftermath of the Hurricane Katrina disaster in 2008. Recommendations for an improved framework for climate adaptation for inland regions are more challenging to identify than in coastal regions because of the wide variations in ecosystems and human population and our gaps in science and technology. Strategic planning for adaptation will need to address the inland c-levels, which are defined as thresholds of resource quantities per year, resources quantities per capita, and resource quantities per production. Human use of inland ecosystems must be sustainable into the future. For example, planning will need to address how marginal agriculture lands and sensitive environments may be vulnerable to both episodic shocks and steady changes, which may be difficult to measure and monitor. Planning also will need to address how communities should handle both rapid and gradual environmental changes, which could otherwise undermine long-term adaptation. Maintaining national security by avoiding undue internal and external stresses that may disrupt the normal functioning of nations, states, enterprises, and citizens is among the primary duties and obligations of government. In today's global society, national security can be viewed as collaboration among various national and international agencies and organizations such as the military, civilian police services, emergency preparedness and responses services, and aid and humanitarian organizations. The safety and security of societies has the potential to be threatened in subtle and profound ways by climate change. Little doubt exists that the effects and impacts of climate change in different parts of the world will vary widely over differing scales of time and geography. In order to effectively contemplate likely futures and scenarios for climate-induced adaption, science and engineering knowledge and tools are needed to illuminate a path forward that avoids conflict. Climate change is a global environmental threat (Figure 1). The NATO ARW workshop joins the efforts underway by SETAC and other scientific organizations, governments, and international agencies to examine the nature of the possible environmental and social changes inevitably coming to our planet and the likely course of human adaptation to those changes. Proceedings from the NATO ARW workshop will be published in the spring of 2011. More information on this workshop and the topics discussed here are available from the USACE on their web site at http://el.erdc.usace.army.mil/climate/ The area devastated by the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland.