The Legend of Louis Bean: Political Prophecy and the 1948 Election
1999; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 62; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1111/j.1540-6563.1999.tb01434.x
ISSN1540-6563
Autores Tópico(s)Race, History, and American Society
ResumoClick to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes1. Current Biography 1948, A. N. Rothe, ed., S.V. “Bean, Louis H.,” 38–39; Unofficial Observer [John Franklin Carter], The New Dealers (New York, 1934), 93; “The Reminiscences of Louis H. Bean,” Oral History Research Office of Columbia University (microfiche copy at the Franklin D. Roosevelt Library, Hyde Park, N.Y.), 5, 22, 27–28, 30–31, 34–37, 39.2. Bean,” 39; “‘The Best‐known Prophet Since Daniel,”’Business Week, 18 August 1951, 66.3. “‘Best‐known Prophet Since Daniel,”’ 64; Unofficial Observer, The New Dealers, 75, 94; “Reminiscences of Bean,” 45–46, 106, 301; “The Reminiscences of Mordecai Ezekiel,” Oral History Research Office of Columbia University (microfiche copy at the Franklin D. Roosevelt Library), 54–55; Richard S. Kirkendall, Social Scientists and Farm Politics in the Age of Roosevelt (Columbia, Mo., 1966), 1–2, 5–7, 79; Stephen Kemp Bailey, Congress Makes a Law (New York, 1950), 55; Louis H. Bean (hereafter Bean) to Abe Spanel, 29 June 1951, box 37, Louis H. Bean Papers (hereafter Bean Papers), Franklin D. Roosevelt Library; Louis H. Bean, “Opportunities in Public Administration,”Harvard Business School Alumni Bulletin, February 1935, 88.4. Bean to Alvin Hansen, 4 December 1945, box 14; Louis H. Bean, “Effect of Industrial Employment on the Birth Rate in the United States,” 16 May 1936, box 20; Louis H. Bean, “Sizing Up the Business Depression,” 25 May 1931, box 26; Bean to James E. Murray, 25 April 1947, box 27, all in Bean Papers; Louis H. Bean, review of Cycles: The Science of prediction, by E. R. Dewey and E. F. Dakin, American Economic Review 38 (June 1948): 423–24.5. Harvey Breit, “Talk With Louis Bean,” New York Times Book Review, 11 October 1950, 31; Louis H. Bean, How to Predict Elections (New York, 1948), vii; “Reminiscences of Bean,” 161, 169–71.6. Louis H. Bean, Ballot Behavior: A Study of presidential Elections (Washington, D.C., 1940), 2; Louis H. Bean, How to Predict the Stock Market (Washington, D.C., 1962), 1, 5; Louis H. Bean, The Art of Forecasting (New York, 1969), 91–92, 117; Bean, How to Predict Elections, viii, 4, 9, 138, 147; Bean to T. Swann Harding, 25 August 1950, box 33, Bean Papers.7. L. H. Bean and G. B. Thorne, “The Use of ‘Trends in Residuals’ in Constructing Demand Curves,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 27 (March 1932): 66–67. 8. Bean to Frank W. McCulloch, 19 August 1948; and Bean to Henry Morgenthau III, 24 October 1950, box 37, Bean Papers.9. Bean to John P. Kohn, 9 November 1948, box 37, Bean Papers; Louis Bean, “The Tides of Politics,”New Republic, 7 October 1940, 469; Louis H. Bean, “Tides and Patterns in American Politics,” American Political Science Review 36 (August 1942): 637, 639–42, 646–47; Bean, Ballot Behavior, 9, 11–12, 49, 56, 58; Bean, How to Predict Elections, 12, 14, 16.10. Bean, “Tides of Politics,” 470; Bean, “Tides and Patterns in American Politics,” 641; Louis H. Bean, “Do Elections Follow the Business Cycle?,” New York Times Magazine, 24 August 1952, 16; Bean, Ballot Behavior, 5–6, 62; Bean, How to Predict Elections, 17–18, 50–51; Bean to David Lawrence, 30 July 1952, box 37, Bean Papers.11. Arthur M. Schlesinger, “Tides of American Politics,” Yale Review 29 (December 1939): 220, 222; Bean, Ballot Behavior, 56, 60, 65; Samuel Lubell, The Future of American Politics, 2d ed. (Garden City, 1956), 1–3, 46, 52, 212, 217; V. O. Key Jr., “A Theory of Critical Elections,” Journal of Politics 17 (February 1955): 3–4;V. O. Key Jr., “Secular Realignment and the Party System,” Journal of Politics 21 (May 1959): 198–99; Bean, “Tides of Politics,” 470; Bean, “Tides and Patterns in American Politics,” 640, 642; Bean, How to Predict Elections, 16–18, 88.12. Bean, Ballot Behavior, 67, 71–72; Bean, How to Predict Elections, 64, 68, 88, 93, 95, 99–100.13. Bean, Ballot Behavior, 2, 5–6, 56, 58, 60, 83; Bean, How to Predict Elections, 7–8, 23–24, 26–28, 38–39, 51: Bean. “Tides of Politics,” 470; Bean, “Tides and Patterns in American Politics,” 639, 642; Secretary [of Agriculture Henry A. Wallace] to the president, 24 March 1938, box 24; Bean to Dorothy Thompson, 19 October 1940. box 29; and Bean to William Diamond. 15 January 1945, box 37, all in Bean Papers; Louis H. Bean, “What Republican Tide?”how Republic, 1 May 1944, 593–95.14. Bean. How to Predict Elections, 30–32, 34; Louis H. Bean, “Quantitative Analysis of Political Behavior,” abstract of a 9 May 1947 talk, box 42, Bean Papers.15. Louis H. Bean. “The Republican ‘Mandate’ and 1948,”New York Times Magazine, 19 January 1947, 16, 52; Bean, How to Predict Elections, 8–9, 29, 52.16. Bean, “Republican ‘Mandate’ and 1948,” 6, 52; Bean, How to Predict Elections, 4, 9, 16–17, 20, 23, 27, 29–30, 34; Louis H. Bean, The Mid‐Term Battle (Washington, D.C., 1950), 2, 17, 21; Louis H. Bean, “Forecasting the 1950 Elections,”Harper's, April 1950, 38.17. Bean, How to Predict Elections, 36, 42, 44, 46, 57, 133, 146, 158–59, 162–65; Marquis Childs, “Yardsticks for Voters,”New York Times Book Review, 18 July 1948, 4; Robert Bendiner, “Don't Count Truman Out,”Nation, 11 September 1948, 282.18. Bean, How to Predict Elections, 146, 159–60, 165–66.19. Bean to The Secretary of Agriculture, 15 July 1947, box 33, Bean Papers.20. Bean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 12 December 1947, box 33, Bean Papers21. Bean to Henry A. Wallace, 31 March 1948, box 30; Bean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 1 March 1948 and 9 August 1948, box 33; L. H. Bean, “Notes on the Apparent Shift in the Political Balance Between December 1947 and March 1948,” 11 March 1948, box 33, all in Bean Papers.22. Hean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 29 April 1918, box 33. Bean Papers.23. Bean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 25 June 1948, box 33, Bean Papers.24. Bean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 7 July 1948, box 33, Bean Papers.25. Bean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 19 July 1948, box 33, Bean Papers.26. Bean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 3 August 1948, box 33, Bean Papers.27. Bean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 10 August 1948, box 33, Bean Papers.28. Bean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 24 September 1948, box 33, Bean Papers.29. Bean to Clinton P. Anderson, 14 October 1948, box 37, Bean Papers.30. Bean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 21 October 1948, box 33, Bean Papers31. Bean to Jacob Billikopf, 29 October 1948, box 37, Bean Papers32. Bean to V. Lewis Bessie, 17 November 1948, box 37, Bean Papers33. Secretary Wallace to the President, 24 March 1938; “Reminiscences of Bean,” 227, 229.34. Bean to Nathan Koenig, 24 September 1947, box 33; Bean to Oscar Chapman, 22 July 1948, box 33; Bean to Creekmore Fath, 22 September 1948, box 37; Bean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 9 July 1948, 23 August 1948, and 21 October 1948, box 33, all in Bean Papers.35. Presr and Polls Were Wrong In a Loud Voice,”Life, 15 November 1948, 43.36. Tris Coffin, newspaper column clipping, 1949, box 27, Bean Papers; “‘The Best‐known Prophet Since Daniel,’” 64.37. Howard Penniman, review of How to Predict Elections by Louis H. Bean, Journal of Politics 11 (February 1949): 265–66.38. Quoted in “Up the Bean Poll,”Newsweek, 15 November 1948, 29.39. Circular for a 16 November 1948 Bean talk, box 4, Bean Papers.40. Bean to Maurice M. Boukstein, to Henry Bund, and Norman Grieser, each 17 November 1948, box 37, Bean Papers.41. “Up the Bean Poll,” 29; Elmo Roper, You and Your Leaders (New York, 1957), 118.42. Arthur Krock, “In the Nation,”New York Times, 21 September 1954, p. 26.43. Louis H. Bean, “Predicting Election Results,”New York Times, 29 September 1954, p. 30; Bean to Claude Robinson, 22 November 1948; Bean to A. N. Rothe, 15 February 1949; and Bean to R. W. Shugg, 23 November 1948, all in box 37, Bean Papers.44. Bean, Now to Predict Elections, 147–48, 152; Bean to the Secretary [of Agriculture], 5 October 1949, box 33, Bean Papers; Bean to George Gallup. 10 March 1950, box 37, Bean Papers; Louis H. Bean, review of The Pre‐Election Polls of 1948 by Frederick Mosteller et al., Journal of the American Statistical Association 45 (September 1950): 462–64.45. Bean, How to Predict Elections, 159, 161–62, 166–73; Bean to Daniel Schwarz, 11 August 1948. box 37, Bean Papers; Bendiner, “Don't Count Truman Out,” 283.46. Bean, Mid‐Term Bank, 5, 7–9, 11, 22, 24, 28, 96; Bean to H. A. Wallace, 24 December 1948, box 30; Bean to the Secretary of Agriculture, 26 November 1948, box 33; Bean to Paul H. Appleby, 15 December 1948. box 37; Bean to the Secretary [of Agriculture], 5 October 1949, box 33; Bean to Clinton P. Anderson. 8 May 1950, box 37; and Bean to the Secretary [of Agriculture], 16 March 1950, box 33, all in Bean Papers; Bean, “Forecasting the 1950 Elections,” 37–38.47. Bean, Mid‐Term Battle, 17, 9548. Bean to the Secretary [of Agriculture]. 16 March 1950.49. Bean, Mid‐Term Battle, 3–4; Louis H. Bean, “Lost: Ten Million Voters,”Reporter, 7 November 1950, 13; Louis H. Bean, “Election Report: Democrats Will Keep Control of House and Senate,”Look, 7 November 1950, 1.50. Bean to J. E. Wells Jr., 22 August 1950, box 37, Bean Papers.51. Bean,“Do Elections Follow the Business Cycle?,” 16, 44; Bean to the Secretary [of Agriculture], 13 August 1952, box 33, Bean Papers; Louis H. Bean, “Who Will Win in 1952?”Harper's, June 1952, 78.52. Bean to Dana Rush, 31 October 1952, box 37, Bean Papers.53. Bean to Wesley McCune, 29 July 1952, box 33, Bean Papers.54. Bean to the Secretary [of Agriculture], 24 September 1952, box 33, Bean Papers.55. Bean to H. A. Wallace, 4 April 1952, box 30, Bean Papers.56. Bean to Anthony Netboy, 5 November 1932, box 37. Bean Papers.57. Bean to Samuel Moment, 22 October 1952, box 37, Bean Papers; “A Republican Tide?”U.S., News and World Report, 3 October 1952, 25.58. Paut P. Kennedy, “Election Prophet Loses Federal Job,”New York Times, 4 February 1953, p. 16; Bean to Henry Bund. 18 September 1952, box 37, Bean Papers; Louis, H. Bean, Influences in the 1954 Mid‐Term Elections: War, Jobs. Parity, McCarthy (Washington, D.C., 1954), 25, 36.59. Angus Campbell et al., The American Voter (New York. 19601, 532–3360. Louis H. Bean, “Analyzing the Vote,”Nation 24 November 1956, 447–48; Louis H. Bean, Forecasting the California Election: The Meaning of the 1956 Primaries (Washington, D.C., 1958). 1–2, 5; Louis H. Bean, How to Predict the 1972 Election (Chicago, 1972), 4–5, 7, 11, 28, 30–31, 57, 105, 164, 206.61. Bean, How to Predict the 1972 Election, 15, 21–22, 21262. Eric Pace, “Louis H. Bean, 98, Analyst Best Known For 1948 Prediction,” New York Times, 8 August 1994, p. B7.63. Harold F. Gosnell, “Statistics and Political Scientists. American Political Science Review 27 (June 1933): 399. 64. Bedn, How to Predict Elections, 12–13; Arthur M. Schlesinger, Paths to the Present (New York 1949, reprint, Boston, 1964), 277; Harold F. Gosnell, Gross Roots Politics: National Voting Behavior of Typical States (Washington, D.C., 1942), 7, 9, 11, 160; V. O. Key Jr., “If the Election Follows the Pattern,”New York Times Magazine, 20 October 1946, 8; V. O. Key Jr., Politics, Parties, and Pressure Groups, 3d ed. (New York, 1952), 184–83, 207, 210 note 26.65. Smiuel Lubell, “Mho Really Elected Truman?”Saturday Evening Post, 22 January 1949, 61
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