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Evaluating the Effects of the M6 Toll Road on Industrial Land Development and Employment

2008; Routledge; Volume: 42; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/00343400701654087

1360-0591

Geoff Pugh, Jon Fairburn,

Urban Transport and Accessibility

Abstract Pugh G. and Fairburn J. Evaluating the effects of the M6 Toll road on industrial land development and employment, Regional Studies. The paper reports the first evaluation of the wider economic effects of the M6 Toll, the UK's first toll motorway. Methodologically, it contributes to the literature evaluating the economic effects of new transport infrastructure by exploiting a new source of data, applying fresh econometric techniques, and triangulating quantitative results with interview data. It is concluded that the M6 Toll has caused a positive development effect at the sub-regional level. In addition, reasons are advanced why the development potential of new road infrastructure may be amplified rather than reduced by tolls. Pugh G. et Fairburn J. Evaluer les effets de la route à péage M6 sur le développement des zones friches et l'emploi, Regional Studies. Cet article cherche à présenter les premiers résultats quant aux retombées économiques de plus grande envergure de la route à péage M6, la première route à péage au Royaume-Uni. Du point de vue méthodologique, l'article contribue à la documentation qui cherche à évaluer les retombées économiques de la nouvelle infrastucture routière en employant une nouvelle source de données, en appliquant des techniques économétriques toutes nouvelles, et en triangulant les résultats quantitatifs avec les données provenant des interviews. On conclut que la route à péage M6 a eu des retombées positives sur le plan sous-régional. En plus, on avance des raisons qui expliquent pourquoi le potentiel de la nouvelle infrastructure routière pourrait être augmenté plutôt que réduit par le péage. Route à péage M6 Infrastructure routière Développement des zones friches Retombées économiques de plus grande envergure Evaluation Principes de fonds supplémentaires et de déplacement Pugh G. und Fairburn J. Bewertung der Auswirkungen der mautpflichtigen Autobahn M6 auf die industrielle Landerschließung und Beschäftigung, Regional Studies. In diesem Artikel berichten wir über die erste Bewertung der breiteren wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der ersten mautpflichtigen Autobahn Großbritanniens, M6 Toll. Als methodologischer Beitrag zur Literatur werden im Artikel die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der neuen Verkehrsinfrastruktur bewertet, wofür eine neue Datenquelle genutzt, frische ökonometrische Techniken angewandt und quantitative Ergebnisse mit Interviewdaten trianguliert werden. Wir ziehen den Schluss, dass die M6 Toll auf subregionaler Ebene eine positive Wirkung auf die Entwicklung gezeigt hat. Darüber hinaus führen wir Gründe an, warum sich das Entwicklungspotenzial einer neuen Straßeninfrastruktur durch eine Maut verbreitern statt verringern kann. Mautpflichtige M6-Autobahn Verkehrsinfrastruktur Industrielle Landerschließung Breiterer wirtschaftlicher Nutzen Bewertung Ergänzung und Verdrängung Pugh G. y Fairburn J. Valoración de los efectos de los peajes de la autopista M6 en el desarrollo industrial y el empleo en zonas rurales, Regional Studies. En este artículo hacemos una primera evaluación de los amplios efectos económicos de la primera autopista con peaje en el Reino Unido, la M6. Como aportación metodológica a la literatura, en este artículo evaluamos los efectos económicos de la nueva infraestructura de transporte al sacar provecho de una nueva fuente de datos, aplicar las recientes técnicas econométricas y triangular los resultados cuantitativos con datos de entrevistas. Concluimos que el peaje de la M6 ha causado un efecto de desarrollo positivo a nivel subregional. Además, explicamos los motivos por los que el posible desarrollo de una nueva infraestructura de carreteras podría ampliarse en vez de reducirse a causa del peaje. Peaje de la autopista M6 Infraestructura de transporte Desarrollo de terreno industrial Amplios beneficios económicos Evaluación Adicionalidad y desplazamiento Keywords: M6 Toll MotorwayTransport infrastructureIndustrial land developmentWider economic benefitsEvaluationAdditionality and displacementJEL classifications: R11R33R42 Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Mike Kinghan, of the Southern Staffordshire Partnership, who managed the project from which this paper is derived; Bob Simpson at the Government Office for the West Midlands; John de Kanter, Tony Joynson, and Keith Daniels at InStaffs; and Steve Burrows, Janet Edwards, and Steve Bradford at the Development Services Department of Staffordshire County Council. Rosie Duncan, at Staffordshire University's Institute for Environment, Sustainability and Regeneration, created Fig. 1. In addition, the authors give particular thanks to the private- and public-sector practitioners whose contributions are anonymous but whose generosity in sharing knowledge during lengthy interviews has enriched this research. Finally, the paper was substantially improved by comments and suggestions from the anonymous referees and editors. All remaining shortcomings are the responsibility of the authors. Notes 1. Staffordshire County Council's 'industrial land survey includes land in the industrial, office, warehousing and distribution sectors' (Staffordshire County Council, various years; here 2003, p. 5). Of the 27 development sites within the M6 Toll corridor (InStaffs, 2003), 18 are in Staffordshire, five are in North Warwickshire, and four are in Birmingham. 2. In the authors' view, one of these (Dodgson, Citation1974) is an ex ante study. 3. Tolls ensured that traffic on the M6 Toll was 'free flowing' throughout the period investigated. Hence, differential access time to the M6 Toll is the key to its effects at different locations. On the use of drive time rather than distance or compound 'cost' measures, in addition to the references in the text, Holvad and Preston (Citation2005, p. 18) conclude from their review of studies on the additional economic benefits of road projects that 'results are more consistent if travel time is used as a measure of accessibility rather than travel distance' (also Linneker and Spence, Citation1996). 4. Archive copies were kindly supplied by the Development Services Department, Staffordshire County Council, Riverway, Stafford ST16 3TJ, UK. 5. Significant non-zero 'before' effects could indicate either that the threshold period was incorrectly defined or that the three drive-time zones had characteristics that systematically influenced development independently of the hypothesized M6 Toll effects. 6. For analysis, estimation, and interpretation of these marginal effects, see Greene (Citation2003, pp. 764–766), Wooldridge (Citation2002, pp. 521–524; 2003, pp. 567–569); and Cong Citation(2000). 7. Variables whose estimated coefficients are statistically non-significant are not deleted when these are required for comparison within 'sets' of variables: this applies to variables for total land available (comparison with total land readily available); all 'before' and 'after' effects; and the district dummies. 8. The intercept term is included to ensure that the estimated residual in the tobit model satisfies the assumption of a zero mean (Greene, Citation2003, pp. 765, 771; Wooldridge, Citation2002, p. 520). However, 'the intercept should not be relied on for purposes of analysis or inference' (Studenmund, Citation1992, p. 242; also pp. 96–98, 240–242). 9. For further detail on the calculations in this section, see Pugh (Citation2005, pp. 55–57). 10. These calculations take no account of potential multiplier effects (i.e. the extent to which spending additional income leads to further job creation). Although typically local multipliers are very small (around 1.05–1.11; SACTRA, Citation1999, p. 219), the existence of wards in Cannock that are both close to the M6 Toll and eligible for European Union Regional Development Funding suggests the presence of under-utilized resources consistent with positive multiplier effects. 11. The ratio of total net benefits to transport net benefits is defined as: 12. These tests and checks on robustness are fully reported by Pugh (Citation2005, pp. 51–54), but are omitted herein for reasons of space. 13. Indeed, the low 'pseudo-R Footnote2' measures reported in Tables 2 and 3 are typical of this type of regression (Wooldridge, Citation2002, p. 529; 2003a, p. 31). 14. As noted in the Introduction, the paper does not account for potentially negative externalities associated with the M6 Toll. Hence, there is nothing to be said about 'additional disbenefits' (detrimental impacts). 15. SACTRA also recommends taking account of multiplier effects. This becomes particularly relevant when one considers employment effects (see note 10).