Three Scandinavian Counterfactual Scenarios from the Napoleonic Wars
2009; Routledge; Volume: 34; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/03468750902829737
ISSN1502-7716
Autores Tópico(s)European Political History Analysis
ResumoAbstract The article focuses on the possibilities of counterfactual history through three showcases from the Scandinavian theatre of the Napoleonic Wars. The scenarios are based on clearly described and plausible points of divergence, i.e. single, identifiable historical events that could have resulted in a different outcome. The counterfactuals are explored by means of systematic extrapolation. The first scenario presents the possibility of a Danish victory against the British naval expedition in the Battle of Copenhagen Roads in 1801. The scenario seeks to answer the question whether the Danish victory could have maintained the League of Armed Neutrality intact in some form, keeping Scandinavia out of the Napoleonic Wars altogether. The second scenario describes the Abborfors border dispute of 1803, which historically nearly triggered a war between Sweden and Russia. The extrapolation focuses on the hypothetical consequences of a premature Swedish-Russian conflict in 1803, and its impact on the War of the Third Coalition. The third scenario explores the hypothetical French invasion of Jutland in 1807, and the potential of Scandinavia as a strategic quagmire of the Napoleonic Wars, comparable to what Spain became in our timeline. Keywords: alternate historyNapoleonic Wars19th century Notes 1 Livy, Book IX, 24–30, 255–8. 2 Haapala, 'Robert Fogel ja "tieteellinen historiankirjoitus"', 320; Tamminen, 'Robert Fogelko myyttien murtaja?', 141–2. 3 For one survey, see Winter, The Great War and the British People, 2. 4 Ferguson, 'Virtual History', 1–90. 5 Niemi and Pernaa, Entäs jos – vaihtoehtoinen Suomen historia; Jokisipilä and Niemi, Entäs jos – lisää vaihtoehtoista Suomen historiaa. 6 Osica and Sowa, Co by było, gdyby, 6–8; Staliūnas, 'Alternatives to Lithuanian ethnonationalism', 417–28. 7 Barton, Scandinavia in the Revolutionary Era, 126. 8 van Creveld, Supplying War, 68. 9 Ferguson, 'Virtual History', 86–7. 10 For a classic example on the use of psychology in the study of history, see Renvall, Nykyajan historiantutkimus, 107, 113–6. 11 Jelavich, History of the Balkans, 101. 12 Häikiö, Historia ja väärät profeetat, 33–41. 13 For this same counterfactual conclusion, see also Karonen, Pohjoinen Suurvalta, 430. 14 Barton, Scandinavia in the Revolutionary Era, 252. The Danes had lost 375 dead and 670 wounded; the British had lost 350 dead and 850 wounded. 15 Alanen, Suomen historia kustavilaisella ajalla, 597–8. 16 Wihtol, 'The Naval Battles of Ruotsinsalmi', 69. 17 Meri, Maassa taivaan saranat, 235–6. 18 Barton, Scandinavia in the Revolutionary Era, 251–2. 19 Ibid. 20 Ingram, 'Illusions of Victory', 140–3. 21 For details on the embryonic pan-Scandinavian sentiments of the 1790s, see Barton, Scandinavia in the Revolutionary Era, 227–8. 22 Lambert, 'Great Britain and the Baltic, 1809–1890', 299–300. 23 Alanen, Suomen historia kustavilaisella ajalla, 607–10; Barton, Scandinavia in the Revolutionary Era, 265. 24 Ramel, Kustaa Mauri Armfelt, 252. 25 Duffy, Russia's Military Way to the West, 56–7. 26 van Creveld, Supplying War, 44. 27 Koch, A History of Prussia, 156–7. 28 Greenfeld, Nationalism: Five Roads to Modernity, 280, 353, 358. 29 Davies, God's Playground, 84, 218. 30 Walicki, Philosophy and Romantic Nationalism, 253, 259, 263–5. 31 Lindqvist, Napoleon, 330–5, 377–8. 32 Tyynilä, Senaatti; tutkimus hallituskonselji-senaatista, 48–51. 33 Ramel, Kustaa Mauri Armfelt, 242–8. 34 Ramel, Yrjö Maunu Sprengtporten, 221–2. 35 For a similar counterfactual argument, see Jussila, 'Valtiokehityksen vaihtoehtoja', 15–17. 36 Of the historical exploits of Gustav, the 'Prince of Vasa', who also used the title 'Count von Itterburg', see, for example, The Journal of Sir Walter Scott, vol I, 26 April 1827. 37 Andersen, '1807 – Napoleon besætter Jylland', 136–9; Barton, Scandinavia in the Revolutionary Era, 275–6. 38 Feldbæk, 'Denmark and the Baltic, 1720–1864', 257–95. 39 Ryan, 'The Causes of the British Attack on Copenhagen in 1807', 45, 50, 55. 40 Ibid., 49. 41 Ibid., 53. 42 Finley, 'Prelude to Spain: The Calabrian Insurrection, 1806–1807', 84–7. 43 van Creveld, Supplying War, 41–2, 74. 44 Israel, Dutch Republic, 1120. 45 Brázdil et al., 'Historical Climatology in Europe', 379, 384. 46 Andersen, Orlogsskibet Prinds Christian Frederik, 98–117. 47 Barton, Scandinavia in the Revolutionary Era, 281. 48 Carr, Spain 1808–1975, 84–5. 49 Zamoyski, 1812: Napoleon's Fatal March on Moscow, 38. 50 Robertson, 'The Juntas of 1809 and the Spanish Colonies', 578–9. 51 Pocock, Battle for Empire, 233–42; SarDesai, Southeast Asia, 89–90. 52 Eckel, 'Challenges to Dutch Monopoly of Japanese Trade', 175. 53 For the most famous example of a reference to the 'ruins of blazing Moscow', see Pushkin, Клеветникам России, 499–500. As late as during the Kosovo Crisis of 1999, the Russian foreign minister Igor Ivanov still publicly cited Pushkin's poem as a stern warning to the NATO countries, and in 2007, the same poem once again saw propaganda use during the 'Bronze Warrior' crisis between Estonia and Russia. 54 See, for example, Osmo Jussila's comments in his article 'Valtiokehityksen vaihtoehtoja', 14–19; likewise, some time ago similar interpretations were voiced by Marja Jalava and Petri Karonen in the allohistorical episode of Jukka Relander's talk-show 'T-klubi' in the 'YLE Teema' channel in the Finnish public television.
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