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Population and Development in Mexico since 1940: An Interpretation

1986; Wiley; Volume: 12; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.2307/1973351

1728-4457

Francisco José Domouso de Alba, Joseph E. Potter,

Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets

In this discussion of population and development in Mexico since 1940 attention is directed initially to the 30-year period of sustained economic growth that began in 1940. After identifying the mainstays of the governments efforts to promote development during the period focus shifts to the ways in which these policies were shaped by and in turn fostered rapid population growth. Turning to the recurrent frustration of Mexican development objectives from the late 1960s onwards the discussion turns to the exhaustion of the mechanisms of population accommodation that had been relied on and to the ways successive governments tried to cope with the problems they encountered. In the final section consideration turns to 1 of the responses i.e. the population policy announced in 1973. After analyzing the nature of the government efforts the discussion explores how they were related to the rapid change in reproductive behavior that has occurred in the interim. A marked acceleration in the rate of growth of Mexicos population took place in the 1930s and the 1940s. In the 30 years following 1940 the Mexican population increased by 157% in contrast to an increase in the previous years of only 30%. The net annual addition to the population which numbered about 300000 persons in the 1930s had increased to nearly 2 million persons by 1970. The acceleration was brought about by a rapid decline in mortality and to a lesser extent by a slight but appreciable increase in fertility. It was an amazing accomplishment of the Mexican economy and society that they were able without visible strain to accommodate this unexpected and sizable increase in numbers. Several policies pursued during this period appear to have been particularly pertinent to the pattern of accommodation that was achieved including the agrarian reform policy the agricultural policy government support of the industrial sector and a series of policies designed to promote private sector initiative. Much of the explanation for the persistence of high fertility in Mexico lies with the particular policy initiatives that defined the style of development during the 1940-70 period. They gave rise to important social and economic transformations but failed to produce environments in which high fertility posed a serious problem for most families at least until well toward the end of this period. If in 1940 there was no apparent reason for Mexico to have much interest in limiting fertility this was no longer the case by 1970. The submission in September 1973 of a legislative proposal for major reforms in the countrys laws concerning population was notable. A constitutional amendment and the revisions and extensions of the population code became effective before the end of the year. Yet the marked decline in fertility in Mexico realized by 1982 will have no more than a minimal influence on the growth in the labor force that will take place during the rest of this century. This continuing rapid population growth engenders much condern about the effects of the dramatic break with past macroeconomic performance that has occurred since the early 1980s.