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Comparative Skill of Numerical Weather Forecasts in Eastern Amazonia

2013; Scientific Research Publishing; Volume: 03; Issue: 03 Linguagem: Inglês

10.4236/acs.2013.33037

2160-0414

Bergson Cavalcanti de Moraes, Douglas Batista da Silva Ferreira, Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho, Juarez Ventura de Oliveira, Everaldo Barreiros de Souza, Pedro Pereira Ferreira Júnior, Renata Kelen Cardoso Câmara, Edson José Paulino da Rocha, João Batista Miranda Ribeiro,

Climate variability and models

The present study evaluates the performance of three numerical weather forecasting models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (BRAMS) and ETA Regional Model (ETA), by means of the Mean Error (ME) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), during the most rainy four months period (January to April 2012) on Eastern Amazonia. The models displayed errors of superestimation and underestimation with respect to the observed precipitation, mainly over center-north of Pará and all of Amapá, where the precipitation is higher. Among the analyzed models, GFS shows the best performance, except during January and March, when the model to underestimated precipitation, possibly due to the anomalously high values recorded.