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Getting Back on Track in Bosnia-Herzegovina

2010; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 33; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/0163660x.2010.516605

1530-9177

Christopher S. Chivvis, Harun Đogo,

Post-Soviet Geopolitical Dynamics

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. Daniel Simpson, “West Presses Bosnia Voters to Turn Out Nationalists,” New York Times, October 6, 2002, p. 4. 2. Serb political objectives and policy options west of the Drina are well illustrated in a 2008 op-ed by Dr. Nenad Kecmanović on the eve of Kosovar independence. See Nenad Kecmanović, “Dodikova pretnja osamostaljenjem” [Dodik's Threat to Independence], Politika, September 28, 2008, http://www.nspm.rs/sudbina-dejtonske-bih-i-republika-srpska/dodikova-pretnja-osamostaljenjem.html?alphabet=l. 3. See Esad Zgodić, interview by Nerzuk Curak, BH Dani, October 8, 1999, http://www.bhdani.com/arhiva/123/inter.htm. 4. See Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Bosnia and Herzegovina, “Report on Activities of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” January-December 1997, http://www.bh-hchr.org/Reports/reportHC1997. 5. For exact text of PIC decisions, see Office of the High Representative and EU Special Representative, Web site, http://www.ohr.int/ (hereinafter OHR Web site). 6. See Ed Vuliamy, “Farewell Sarajevo,” Guardian, November 2, 2005. 7. OHR Web site. 8. International Monetary Fund (IMF), “Bosnia and Herzegovina – Selected Economic Issues,” IMF Country Report No. 06/368, October 2006, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/cr06368.pdf. 9. Commentary on the origin and operation of the “Dayton project” can be found in an interview with Srda Trifković in 2005. See Srda Trifković, interview by Sasa Saša Bižić, “Amerika nikada ne preispituje svoje greške, transl” [America Never Reviews its Mistakes], Novi Reporter, no. 137, October 26, 2005, http://www.novireporter.com/look/reporter/nr_article.tpl?IdLanguage=11&IdPublication=2&NrIssue=137&NrSection=3&NrArticle=1388. 10. See the electoral platform of the Stranka Za BiH political party from 2006 at http://www.zabih.ba/downloads/izbornap.pdf (in Croatian). 11. See Dodik's statements to Večernje Novosti in 2006 and OHR media round-up from May 28, 2006 in the aftermath of Dodik's statement on the possibility of a secession referendum similar to that of Montenegro available from OHR, Press Office, Web site, http://www.ohr.int/ohr-dept/presso/bh-media-rep/round-ups/default.asp?content_id=37263. 12. For this argument, see Gerald Knaus and Felix Martin, “Travails of the European Raj,” Journal of Democracy 14, no. 3 (July 2003): 60–74. 13. Christian Schwarz-Schilling, “How to Move Bosnia Forward,” New York Times, February 1, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/01/opinion/01iht-edschill.html. 14. See “Bosnia's Disintegration is out of the Question,” Helsinki Charter, no. 133–134 (2009), pp. 12–13 and Patrice McMahon and Jon Western, “Death of Dayton – How to Stop Bosnia from Falling Apart,” Foreign Affairs 88, no. 5 (September/October 2009): 69–83. 15. See Anes Alic, “Bosnia: The IMF Money Crunch,” May 25, 2009, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?id=100562&lng=en. 16. The average wage in the Republika Srpska (RS) surpassed that of the Federation in early 2009, according to the entity statistical agencies (819 to 793 KM). See Republika Srpska Institute of Statistics, Web site, http://www.rzs.rs.ba/Latinica.htm. This, however, reflects 2008 data, at the very onset of the global economic crisis. In 2010, however, public sector pay in the Republika Srpska will be reduced by up to 25 percent, according to a December 2009 decision of its cabinet. The Federation is also under heavy pressure from the IMF to reduce outlays. 17. About 75 percent of voters of the RS expressed their support for Milorad Dodik. When sampling all voters, however, this support fell to 39 percent. See “RS – istraživanje: SNSD i Dodik uživaju najveće povjerenje stanovnika” [SNSD and Dodik enjoying the largest support of the voters], E-Novine, November 18, 2009, http://www.e-novine.net/region/bosna-i-hercegovina/4055-rs-istraivanje-snsd-i-dodik-uivaju-najvee-povjerenje-stanovnika.pdf. 18. Interviews of Bosnian Serb officials by authors, Banja Luka, October 2009. 19. CIA World Factbook 2010, “Bosnia and Herzegovina,” https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bk.html. 20. As of late 2009, out of 120 conditions in the Road Map to the Schengen White List, or visa-free access for Bosnian citizens to the EU, Bosnia had completed all but 27, and nine of those represented true political obstacles for which there was no consensus between the parties. In particular, those referred to the Law on Movement of Weapons and Military Equipment and the Law on Border Controls. See Association Alumni of the Centre for Interdisciplinary Postgraduate Studies, “Towards the White Schengen List: Implementation of the Roadmap on Visa Liberalisation in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” March 3, 2010, http://www.acips.ba/eng/uploads/research/acips_vize_eng.pdf. 21. See, for example, the dispute over demands for a Croatian language TV channel in Bosnia. See “Croatian Channel Would Become a Victim of Election,” Seebiz.eu, August 2, 2010,http://seebiz.eu/hr/tvrtke/mediji/hrvatski-kanal-u-bih-postao-zrtva-izbora,87415.html (in Croatian). 22. For an argument in favor of nationalism, see David P. Calleo, Coleridge and the Idea of the Modern State (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966). 23. See Milan Cuc, “Bosnia and Herzegovina: On the Road to EU Accession,” IMF Survey Magazine, November 12, 2008, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/CAR111208A.htm. 24. UN Development Programme, “Early Warning System Annual Report,” 2008, http://www.kosovo.undp.org/repository/docs/EWR_19_Eng_.pdf. 25. Serbia's rate was 6.6, but the direct comparisons are not possible due to significant differences in measurement. See World Bank, “2009 Country Brief for Bosnia and Herzegovina,” http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BOSNIAHERZEXTN/0,,contentMDK:20629017~menuPK:362034~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:362026,00.html. 26. This coalition included the moderate Partija Demokratskog Progresa, centre-right Srpska Demokratska Stranka, and ultra-nationalist Srpska Radikalna Stranka Republike Srpske. For a further discussion of coalitions in the RS, see Nataša Krsman, “Rušenje Dodika” [Bringing Down Dodik], Nezavisne Novine, February 6, 2010. 27. UN Security Council Resolution 1031, S/RES/1031, December 15, 1995, http://www.nato.int/ifor/un/u951215a.htm. 28. See Ollie Rehn, EU Commissioner for Enlargement, “Towards A European Era for Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Way Ahead,” speech to the Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina, July 24, 2009, http://www.delbih.ec.europa.eu/docs/speech/ORspeech.pdf and U.S. Congress, Committee on Security and Cooperation in Europe, “The Western Balkans: Policy Responses to Today's Challenges,” September 29, 2009, Washington D.C., http://csce.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=ContentRecords.ViewDetail&ContentRecord_id=460&Region_id=0&Issue_id=0&ContentType=H,B&ContentRecordType=H&CFID=38213426&CFTOKEN=20498156. Additional informationNotes on contributorsChristopher S. ChivvisChristopher S. Chivvis is a political scientist with the RAND Corporation in Washington, D.C. and adjunct professor of European Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins UniversityHarun ĐogoHarun Đogo, currently based in Brussels, is a doctoral fellow at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and was formerly an officer in the Bosnian Air Force