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No Longer Dominant, Playing for Second: The Israel Labour Party in the 2006 Election

2007; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 13; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/13537120701204894

1743-9086

Neill Lochery,

Middle East Politics and Society

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. Back in 1977 explanations for the defeat of the party at the polls concentrated on the short-term campaign-specific issues ranging from poor campaign strategy, the rise of the Democratic Movement for Change (DASH), the resignation of Yitzhak Rabin. This led to the coining of the phrase that the Likud victory was a ‘freak road accident’ that would not be repeated. Longer-term explanations for the decline of the ILP tended to come to the fore after the party's second defeat in the 1981 elections. 2. Neill Lochery, The Israeli Labour Party: In the Shadow of the Likud, Reading, 1977, p. 44. 3. Myron Aronoff, Power and Ritual in the Israel Labour Party, New York and London, 1993. 4. Myron Aronoff, Power and Ritual in the Israel Labour Party, New York and London, 1993 5. Myron Aronoff, Power and Ritual in the Israel Labour Party, New York and London, 1993 6. Maurice Duverger, Political Parties; Their Organisation and Activity in the Modern State, New York, 1960. 7. Lochery, Israeli Labour Party, p. 45. 8. For example, see Asher Arian, The Elections in Israel 1977, Tel Aviv, 1980. See also his introductions (most co-written with Michal Shamir in subsequent volumes of The Elections in Israel series). 9. Lochery, Israeli Labour Party, p. 47. 10. A. Etzioni-Halevy and R. Shapira, Political Culture in Israel: Cleavage and Integration Among Israeli Jews (New York: Praeger, 1977). 11. On this theory see Y. Yishai, ‘Israel's Right-Wing Jewish Proletariat’, Jewish Journal of Sociology, Vol. 4 (1982). Also see E. Cohen, ‘Ethnicity and Legitimation in Contemporary Israel’, Jerusalem Quarterly, No. 28 (1988). 12. Majid Al-Haj, ‘The Political Behaviour of the Arabs in Israel in the 1992 Elections: Integration Versus Separation’, in Asher Arian and Michal Shamir (eds.), The Elections in Israel 1992, Albany, NY, 1995, p. 144. 13. On this see Hillel Frisch, ‘The Arab Vote: The Radicalisation of Politisation’, in Daniel J. Elazar and Shmuel Sandler (eds.), Israel at the Polls 1996, London and Portland, OR, 1998, p. 103. 14. On this see Hillel Frisch, ‘The Arab Vote: The Radicalisation of Politisation’, in Daniel J. Elazar and Shmuel Sandler (eds.), Israel at the Polls 1996, London and Portland, OR, 1998, p. 103 15. Immigration to Israel 1989–2003, Ministry of Absorption, Jerusalem. 16. Z. Gitelman and K. Goldstein, ‘The Russian Revolution in Israeli Politics’, in Asher Arian and Michael Shamir (eds.), Elections in Israel 1999, Albany, NY, 2002, p. 142. 17. Etta Black, ‘Sectarian Party Politics in Israel: The Case for Yisrael Ba'Aliyah, the Russian Immigrant Party’, in Elazar and Sandler (eds.), Israel at the Polls 1996, p. 132. 18. Neill Lochery, ‘The Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union and the Middle East Peace Process’, Journal of East European Jewish Affairs (July 2006). 19. Author interview with Yossi Beilin. 20. Lochery, ‘The Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union’. 21. Lochery, ‘The Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union’ 22. Z. Gitelman and K. Goldstein, in Elections in Israel 1999, pp. 144–45. 23. Lochery, ‘The Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union’. 24. This argument is most clearly articulated from differing perspectives in B. Kimmerling, Zionism and Territory: The Social Territorial Dimensions of Zionist Politics, Berkeley, CA, 1983, and in Efraim Inbar, War and Peace in Israeli Politics: Labour Party Positions on National Security, London, 1991. 25. On this see Michael Shalev, Labour and the Political economy in Israel, Oxford, 1994, pp. 287–88. 26. On the divisions within the ILP on the question of the future status of the territories see Inbar, War and Peace in Israeli Politics. 27. For more on this see Lochery, Israeli Labour Party, pp. 55–56. 28. For more on this see Lochery, Israeli Labour Party, pp. 55–56 29. Lochery, Israeli Labour Party, p. 57. 30. Shalev, Labour and the Political Economy, p. 288. 31. Shalev, Labour and the Political Economy, p. 288 32. Shalev, Labour and the Political Economy, p. 288 33. For more detail on these underlying factors see Lochery, Israeli Labour Party, pp. 58–59. 34. Lily Galili and Mazal Mualem, ‘Amir Peretz Presses for Early Elections as Labour, Likud Snipe’, Ha'aretz, 13 November 2005. 35. Anshel Pfeffer, ‘Amir Peretz's Long Battle for Acceptance’, Jerusalem Post, 10 November 2005. 36. Peretz is said to have signed up some 20,000 new party voters, while Peres did not bother with a new membership drive. On this see David Makovsky, ‘Campaign Season Begins in Israel Part II: Labour's New Leader, Amir Peretz’, Peace Watch, No. 527, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 23 November 2005. 37. Gill Hoffman, ‘Peretz Seeks Deal with Sharon on Early Elections’, Jerusalem Post, 9 November 2005. 38. Gill Hoffman, ‘Peretz Seeks Deal with Sharon on Early Elections’, Jerusalem Post, 9 November 2005 39. Gill Hoffman, ‘Peretz Seeks Deal with Sharon on Early Elections’, Jerusalem Post, 9 November 2005 40. Final Results of the Primary, The Labour Party Central Election Committee. 41. Final Results of the Primary, The Labour Party Central Election Committee 42. Final Results of the Primary, The Labour Party Central Election Committee 43. Makovsky, ‘Campaign Season Begins in Israel Part II’. 44. Makovsky, ‘Campaign Season Begins in Israel Part II’ 45. See, for example, Emma Murphy, ‘Structural Inhabitations to Structural Reform in Israel’, Middle East Journal, Vol. 48, No. 1 (1994). 46. On Peres's first attempt at economic reform see Chaim Barkai, ‘Israel's Attempt at Economic Stabilisation’, Jerusalem Quarterly, No. 43 (1987). 47. Lochery, Israeli Labour Party, p. 124. 48. On this and the importance of socioeconomic issues see: Gil Hoffman, ‘Amir Peretz: The Man Behind the Moustache (interview with Amir Peretz)’, Jerusalem Post, 10 November 2005. 49. Graham Usher, ‘The Peretz Breakthrough’, Al-Ahram, No. 769, 17–23 November 2005. 50. Interview with Amir Peretz, 12 June 2005, available at www.zionism-israel.com. 51. In the UK the contest was rather unsurprisingly portrayed as Old Labour (Peretz) versus New Labour (Peres), ‘Old Labour?’, The Economist, 17 November 2005. 52. ‘Israel: Poverty Could Be Election Capital’, Business Week, 28 November 2005. 53. ‘Israel: Poverty Could Be Election Capital’, Business Week, 28 November 2005 54. ‘Israel: Poverty Could Be Election Capital’, Business Week, 28 November 2005 55. ‘Old Labour?’, The Economist. 56. Sam Knight, ‘Israel Faces Early Elections as Left-Winger Defeats Peres’, The Times, 10 November 2005. 57. Sam Knight, ‘Israel Faces Early Elections as Left-Winger Defeats Peres’, The Times, 10 November 2005 58. Akiva Eldar, ‘Fold up the Roadmap’, Haaretz, 11 November 2005. 59. Leslie Susser, ‘Peretz Victory in Labour Means Shake up Coming in Israeli Politics’, Jewish Telegraphic Agency, 14 November 2005. 60. Throughout 1994 the author conducted detailed interviews with members of the strategic election team behind Rabin's 1992 election victory. They had targeted specific voting constituencies namely the 100,000 centre-ground voters and first-time voters. 61. For more on this see Lochery, Israeli Labour Party. 62. Uri Avery, ‘Israel: A Shift to the Left’, Le Monde Diplomatique (January 2006). 63. ‘Israel: Poverty Could Be Election Capital’, Business Week. 64. On this strategy for each election campaign from 1977 to 1992 see Lochery, Israeli Labour Party. 65. The election results confirmed that this fear was realized. See, for example, Anshel Pfeffer and Sheera Claire Frenkel, ‘Party Time: Peretz Fighting Fires’, Jerusalem Post, 8 June 2006. 66. ‘Poll: Peres's Resignation Nudges 30 Percent Vote for Kadima’, Ha'aretz, 1 December 2005. 67. ‘New Labour’, Jerusalem Post, 11 November 2005. 68. ‘New Labour’, Jerusalem Post, 11 November 2005 69. Nir Hasson and Eli Ashkenazi, ‘Barak Inclined to Vie For Slot on Labour Knesset List’, Ha'aretz, 4 December 2005. 70. This appears to be confirmed by the annually published surveys by the Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies, Asher Arian, ‘Public Opinion on National Security’, Memorandum (various editions), Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University. 71. On the philosophical development of disengagement and the security fence (barrier) in both the leadership of the ILP and the Likud see Neill Lochery, The View from the Fence: The Arab–Israeli Conflict from the Present to Its Roots, London and New York, 2005. 72. On the consequences for Israel of the electoral success of Hamas see Anat Kurz, ‘Continuity and Change: Israel and the Palestinian Authority After the Victory of Hamas’, Tel Aviv Notes, No. 161, Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies, 20 February 2006. 73. Nir Hasson, ‘Labour Kicks Off Campaign with Slogan—Because Time Has Come’, Ha'aretz, 29 December 2005. 74. Nir Hasson, ‘Labour Kicks Off Campaign with Slogan—Because Time Has Come’, Ha'aretz, 29 December 2005 75. On this key issue see Neill Lochery, ‘The Politics and Economics of Israeli Disengagement’, Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 43, No. 1, January 2007, pp. 1–20. 76. For an excellent definition of the poor voters in Israel and the parties they tend to support see Shahar Illan, ‘The Poor Tend to Vote Differently: For Smaller Parties’, Ha'aretz, 3 March 2006. 77. To some degree, Sharon's defection from the Likud led the ILP to start their campaign on a more positive note than had been planned. This change was also down to the party's slide in opinion polls since Peretz had taken over the leadership. See Hasson, ‘Labour Kicks Off Campaign’. 78. On Olmert's reform credentials see Lochery, ‘The Politics and Economics of Israeli Disengagement’. 79. ‘Searching for the Middle Ground’, The Economist, 12 January 2006. 80. ‘Searching for the Middle Ground’, The Economist, 12 January 2006 81. Scott Wilson, ‘Hamas Victory Now a Major Issue in Israeli Election Campaign’, Washington Post, 27 January 2006. 82. Gil Hoffman, ‘Kadima Exploiting Sharon's Illness’, Jerusalem Post, 9 January 2006. 83. Nir Hasson, ‘Barak Supporters Fear Mega deal in Labour Primaries’, Ha'aretz, 17 January 2006. 84. The top 20 were as follows: 1. Amir Peretz, 2. Itzhak Herzog, 3. Ophir Pines-Paz, 4. Avishai Braverman, 5. Yuli Tamir [slot reserved for women], 6. Ami Ayalon, 7. Eitan Cabel [slot reserved for party secretary-general], 8. Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, 9. Shelly Yachimovich [moved forward in women's slot], 10. Michael Melchior, 11. Matan Vilnai, 12. Collette Avital [moved forward in women's slot], 13. Efraim Sneh, 14. Danny Yatom, 15. Nadia Hilo [moved forward in women's slot], 16. Shalom Simhon [slot reserved for moshavim], 17. Orit Noked [slot reserved for kibbutzim], 18. Yoram Marciano [underprivileged neighbourhoods], 19. Raleb Majadele [slot reserved for Arab sector], 20. Shanan Shaqib [slot reserved for Druze sector]. 85. Anshel Pfeffer, ‘Behind the Lines: Smile, Spinners, You're On Screen’, Jerusalem Post, 25 May 2006. 86. On this period see Neill Lochery, The Difficult Road to Peace: Netanyahu, Israel and the Middle East Peace Process, Reading, 1999. 87. A 75-minute documentary of the campaign was indeed made by Anat Goren; entitled ‘All the Campaigns Men’ it was first shown on Channel 10 on 22 May 2006. 88. See Exit Polls from Channel 1 and 2. Channel 10's exit poll was somewhat lower, giving the ILP 20 seats. 89. Kadima's exit poll forecasts from Channels 1, 2 and 10 respectively were 29 seats, 32 seats and 31 seats, and the Likud respectively were 11 sears, 11 seats and 12 seats. 90. Final elections results are available at http://www.knesset.gov.il/elections17/. 91. ‘Labour Takes Likud Strongholds’, Jerusalem Post, 29 March 2006. 92. ‘Labour Takes Likud Strongholds’, Jerusalem Post, 29 March 2006 93. ‘Labour Takes Likud Strongholds’, Jerusalem Post, 29 March 2006 94. ‘Labour Takes Likud Strongholds’, Jerusalem Post, 29 March 2006 95. For more statistical detail on this see Sheera Claire Frenkel, ‘Analysis: Labour Gains from Industrial South’, Jerusalem Post, 31 March 2006. 96. For more statistical detail on this see Sheera Claire Frenkel, ‘Analysis: Labour Gains from Industrial South’, Jerusalem Post, 31 March 2006 97. For more statistical detail on this see Sheera Claire Frenkel, ‘Analysis: Labour Gains from Industrial South’, Jerusalem Post, 31 March 2006 98. Gil Hoffman, ‘Kadima, Labour Frustrated by Talks’, Jerusalem Post, 20 April 2006. 99. Lochery, Israeli Labour Party. 100. Peretz was extremely concerned lest any of his rivals should use the coalition talks as a means to undermine or even replace him as leader. 101. ‘Israel News’, available at www.JewishTimes.com. 102. Leslie Susser, ‘Katsav Hands Reins to Olmert’, Jewish Review, 15 April 2006. 103. Gil Hoffman, ‘Kadima: Labour Won't Get Treasury’, Jerusalem Post, 28 March 2006. 104. Gil Hoffman, ‘Kadima: Labour Won't Get Treasury’, Jerusalem Post, 28 March 2006 105. ‘Peretz Faces Coalition Dilemma’, Ynet News, ynetnews.com, 5 June 2006. 106. ‘Peretz Faces Coalition Dilemma’, Ynet News, ynetnews.com, 5 June 2006 107. For a critical opinion of the appointment see Uri Dan, ‘Defence Minister Amir Peretz?’, Jerusalem Post, 27 April 2006. 108. Globes reported in February 2006 that some 18 families control 50 percent of Israel's business product. See Globes, 13 February 2006. 109. Yossi Sarid, ‘Floating Voter: Farewell Meretz’, Ha'aretz, 31 March 2006. 110. Yossi Sarid, ‘Floating Voter: Farewell Meretz’, Ha'aretz, 31 March 2006 Additional informationNotes on contributorsNEILL LOCHERYNeill Lochery is Director of the Israel Studies Centre at University College, London.