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SOI PHASES AND CLIMATIC RISK TO PEANUT PRODUCTION: A CASE STUDY FOR NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

1996; Wiley; Volume: 16; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(199607)16

1097-0088

Holger Meinke, Roger Stone, Graeme Hammer,

Agricultural pest management studies

International Journal of ClimatologyVolume 16, Issue 7 p. 783-789 Research Article SOI PHASES AND CLIMATIC RISK TO PEANUT PRODUCTION: A CASE STUDY FOR NORTHERN AUSTRALIA H. MEINKE, H. MEINKE DPI/CSIRO Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, PO Box 102, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia. email:[email protected]Search for more papers by this authorR. C. STONE, R. C. STONE DPI/CSIRO Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, PO Box 102, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia. email:[email protected]Search for more papers by this authorG. L. HAMMER, G. L. HAMMER DPI/CSIRO Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, PO Box 102, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia. email:[email protected]Search for more papers by this author H. MEINKE, H. MEINKE DPI/CSIRO Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, PO Box 102, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia. email:[email protected]Search for more papers by this authorR. C. STONE, R. C. STONE DPI/CSIRO Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, PO Box 102, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia. email:[email protected]Search for more papers by this authorG. L. HAMMER, G. L. HAMMER DPI/CSIRO Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, PO Box 102, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia. email:[email protected]Search for more papers by this author First published: July 1996 https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199607)16:7 3.0.CO;2-DCitations: 38AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Abstract Phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in August/ September are used in conjunction with a dynamic peanut simulation model to quantify climatic risk to peanut production in northern Australia. Specifically, we demonstrate how a simulation model can assist to forward estimate production risk based on historic climate records and known atmospheric conditions prior to planting a crop. The SOI phase analysis provides skill in assessing future rainfall probability distributions during the growing season and thus allows an estimate of likely crop performance. Such knowledge can provide valuable information for producers and processors. For instance, the analysis shows that for negative SOI patterns prior to sowing the expected median yield potential for dryland peanut production in northern Australia is 1ċ25 t ha−1 or 27 per cent below the long- term median. Conversely, a positive SOI pattern shows a median potential yield of 2ċ11 t ha−1, an increase of 23 per cent over the long-term median. Other production variables, such as date and frequency of planting opportunities, also differ significantly depending on SOI patterns. Citing Literature Volume16, Issue7July 1996Pages 783-789 RelatedInformation