The Emergent Security Threats Reshaping China's Rise
2010; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 34; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/0163660x.2011.538004
ISSN1530-9177
Autores Tópico(s)Peacebuilding and International Security
ResumoClick to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (Washington D.C.: National Intelligence Council, November 2008), p. 29, http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf. 2. See Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2008, January 2009, http://www.gov.cn/english/official/2009-01/20/content_1210227.htm; Avery Goldstein, Rising to the Challenge: China's Grand Strategy and International Security (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2005); and Evan S. Medeiros, China's International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification, (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2009), http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG850.pdf. 3. Naazneen Barma and Ely Ratner, “China's Illiberal Challenge,” Democracy, no. 2 (Fall 2006): pp. 56–68,http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/2/DAJOI2_56-68_BarmaRatner.pdf. 4. Ramakant Dwivedi, “China's Central Asia Policy in Recent Times,” China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly 4, no. 4 (November 2006): p. 142, http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/CEF/Quarterly/November_2006/Dwivedi.pdf. 5. Willy Lam, “Beijing's Alarm Over New ‘U.S. Encirclement Conspiracy’,” China Brief 5, no. 8 (April 6, 2005), http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=3843&tx_ttnews[backPid]=195&no_cache=1; and “‘East Turkistan’ Terrorist Forces Cannot Get Away with Impunity,” Xinhuanet, January 21, 2002, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/cetur/eng/xwdt/t160708.htm. 6. Niklas Swanstrom, “China and Central Asia: a new Great Game or traditional vassal relations?,” Journal of Contemporary China 14, no. 45 (November 2005): p. 571, http://www.silkroadstudies.org/docs/publications/2005/JCC_Swanstrom.pdf. 7. “‘East Turkistan’ Terrorist Forces Cannot Get Away with Impunity,” Xinhuanet, January 21, 2002, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/cetur/eng/xwdt/t160708.htm. 8. Ramakant Dwivedi, “China's Central Asia Policy in Recent Times,” China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly 4, no. 4 (November 2006): p. 142,http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/CEF/Quarterly/November_2006/Dwivedi.pdf. 9. Martin Wayne, “Al-Qaeda's China Problem,” Asia Times Online, February 27, 2007, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/IB27Ad01.html. 10. Greg Torode, “Al-Qaeda ‘Vows to Avenge Uygurs,’” South China Morning Post, July 14, 2009. 11. Edward Wong, “Chinese Separatists Tied to Norway Bomb Plot,” The New York Times, July 9, 2010,http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/10/world/asia/10uighur.html?_r=1. 12. See Harsh V. Pant, “Saudi Arabia Woos China and India,” Middle East Quarterly 13, no. 4 (Fall 2006): pp. 45–52,http://www.meforum.org/1019/saudi-arabia-woos-china-and-india. 13. Craig Timberg, “Militants Warn China Over Oil in Niger Delta,” Washington Post, May 1, 2006,http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/30/AR2006043001022.html. 14. Scott Johnson, “China's African Misadventures,” Newsweek, November 24, 2007, http://www.newsweek.com/2007/11/24/china-s-african-misadventures.html. 15. David Zweig and Bi Jianhai, “China's Global Hunt for Energy,” Foreign Affairs 84, no. 5 (September/October 2005): pp. 25–38,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61017/david-zweig-and-bi-jianhai/chinas-global-hunt-for-energy. 16. Benoit Faucon and Sherry Su, “Hostility Toward Workers Cools Angola–China Relationship,” The Wall Street Journal, August 10, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704388504575418990791137242.html. 17. Available online at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/21/2010_failed_states_index_interactive_map_and_rankings. Data on arms sales come from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's online database, http://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers. 18. Vijay Sakhuja, “Sri Lanka: Beijing's Growing Foothold in the Indian Ocean,” China Brief 9, no. 12 (June 12, 2009), http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35119. 19. Yitzhak Shichor, “Libya Cautions China: Economics Is No Substitute to Politics,” China Brief 9, no. 24 (December 3, 2009),http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35793&tx_ttnews[backPid]=459&no_cache=1. 20. Nicholas Kristof, “China's Genocide Olympics,” The New York Times, January 24, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/24/opinion/24kristof.html?_r=1. 21. Ely Ratner, “Reaping What You Sow: Democratic Transitions and Foreign Policy Realignment,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53, no. 3 (June 2009): pp. 390–418. 22. Yaroslav Trofimov, “In Africa, China's expansion begins to stir resentment,” The Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2007. 23. Ian Taylor, “Arms Sales to Africa: Beijing's Reputation at Risk,” China Brief 7, no. 7 (May 18, 2007), http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=4069&tx_ttnews[backPid]=197&no_cache=1. 24. Yaroslav Trofimov, “In Africa, China's expansion begins to stir resentment,” The Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2007. 25. Lydia Polgreen and Howard French, “China's Trade with Africa Carries a Price Tag,” The New York Times, August 21, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/21/world/africa/21zambia.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss. 26. Loro Horta, “Africa's poor don't see China as a great power,” Asia Sentinel, November 20, 2009, http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2154&Itemid=422. 27. Yitzhak Shichor, “Libya Cautions China: Economics Is No Substitute to Politics,” China Brief 9, no. 24 (December 3, 2009),http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35793&tx_ttnews[backPid]=459&no_cache=1. 28. See Bates Gill and James Reilly, “The Tenuous Hold of China Inc. in Africa,” The Washington Quarterly 30, no. 3 (Summer 2007), pp. 37–52,http://www.twq.com/07summer/docs/07summer_gill_reilly.pdf. 29. Justine Gerardy, “Opposition gains in Zambia on Worries about China: Analysts,” Agence France-Presse, November 3, 2008. 30. Yaroslav Trofimov, “In Africa, China's expansion begins to stir resentment,” The Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2007. 31. “China Business: African backlash against China,” Asia Times Online, October 20, 2006,http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/HJ20Cb02.html. 32. “Warns Citizens Against Voting For Sata,” The Times of Zambia, June 23, 2010, http://allafrica.com/stories/201006230638.html. 33. Aislinn Laing, “Zambian miners shot by Chinese managers,” Telegraph, October 19, 2010, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zambia/8073443/Zambian-miners-shot-by-Chinese-managers.html. 34. “China, Zambia vow to advance military ties,” Xinhua, October 20, 2010, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90883/7172002.html. 35. Laing, “Zambian miners shot by Chinese managers.” 36. Joseph Kahn, “China, Shy Giant, Shows Signs of Shedding Its False Modesty,” The New York Times, December 9, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/09/world/asia/09china.html?scp=1&sq=China,%20Shy%20Giant,%20Shows%20Signs%20of%20Shedding%20Its%20Falso%20Modesty&st=cse. 37. See “Chinese scholars contribute great power strategies for China,” Global Times, June 14, 2009, http://china.globaltimes.cn/chinanews/2009-06/436765.html. 38. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, “China's Position Paper on the New Security Concept,” July 31, 2002, http://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/wjb/zzjg/gjs/gjzzyhy/2612/2614/t15319.htm. 39. Zheng Bijian, “China's ‘Peaceful Rise’ to Great-Power Status,” Foreign Affairs 84, no. 5 (September/October 2005): pp. 18–24,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61015/zheng-bijian/chinas-peaceful-rise-to-great-power-status. 40. See, for example, Stephanie Hanson, “China, Africa, and Oil,” Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounders, Web site, June 6, 2008, http://www.cfr.org/publication/9557/china_africa_and_oil.html. 41. Percentages derived by cross referencing data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (armstrade.sipri.org) and Freedom House (www.freedomhouse.org). 42. Admiral Timothy Keating, “Hearing to Receive Testimony on United States Pacific Command, United States Strategic Command, and United States Forces Korea,” testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services, March 19, 2009, p. 28. http://armed-services.senate.gov/Transcripts/2009/03%20March/A%20Full%20Committee/09-11%20-%203-19-09.pdf. 43. Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, “Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2009,” p. I, http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf. 44. On power transition theory see A.F.K. Organski, World Politics (New York: Knopf, 1958); A.F.K. Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1980); and Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke, Parity and War (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1996). For a critique of this conceptual framework see Naazneen Barma, Ely Ratner, and Steven Weber, “A World Without the West,” The National Interest (July-August 2007): pp. 23–30,http://nationalinterest.org/article/report-and-retort-a-world-without-the-west-1658. 45. For works on the foreign-policy making process in China see Kenneth Lieberthal, Governing China: From Revolution Through Reform, 2nd edition (New York: W.W. Norton, 2004); David Lampton, ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2001); and Linda Jakobson and Dean Knox, “New Foreign Policy Actors in China,” SIPRI Policy Paper, no. 26 (Solna, Sweden: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, September 2010), http://books.sipri.org/files/PP/SIPRIPP26.pdf. 46. See Commission on Presidential Debates, “The Second Gore-Bush Presidential Debate,” October 11, 2000, http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=october-11-2000-debate-transcript. 47. Condoleezza Rice, “Promoting the National Interest,” Foreign Affairs 79, no. 1 (January/February 2000): p. 53, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/55630/condoleezza-rice/campaign-2000-promoting-the-national-interest. 48. See James Mulvenon, “Chairman Hu and the PLA's ‘New Historic Missions’,” China Leadership Monitor, no. 27 (Winter 2009): p. 2, http://media.hoover.org/sites/default/files/documents/CLM27JM.pdf. 49. See Roy Kamphausen, David Lai, and Andrew Scobell, eds., Beyond the Strait: PLA Missions Other Than Taiwan (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2009). 50. General Xu Caihou, “Statesmen's Forum: General Xu Caihou,” CSIS, Washington, D.C., October 26, 2009, http://csis.org/event/statesmens-forum-general-xu-caihou. On the concept of “multiple military tasks,” see Michael S. Chase and Kristen Gunness, “The PLA's Multiple Military Tasks: Prioritizing Combat Operations and Developing MOOTW Capabilities,” China Brief 10, no. 2 (January 21, 2010), http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35931&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=8945e05997. 51. See Susan L. Shirk, China: Fragile Superpower (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007). Additional informationNotes on contributorsEly Ratner Ely Ratner is an Associate Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and a Research Fellow with the National Asia Research Program. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the RAND Corporation or its research sponsors
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