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Avoiding Coral Reef Functional Collapse Requires Local and Global Action

2013; Elsevier BV; Volume: 23; Issue: 10 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.cub.2013.04.020

1879-0445

Emma Kennedy, Chris T. Perry, Paul R. Halloran, Roberto Iglesias‐Prieto, Christine H L Schönberg, Max Wisshak, Armin Form, Juan P. Carricart‐Ganivet, Maoz Fine, C. Mark Eakin, Peter J. Mumby,

Marine and fisheries research

Coral reefs face multiple anthropogenic threats, from pollution and overfishing to the dual effects of greenhouse gas emissions: rising sea temperature and ocean acidification [1Hoegh-Guldberg O. Mumby P.J. Hooten A.J. Steneck R.S. Greenfield P. Gomez E. Harvell C.D. Sale P.F. Edwards A.J. Caldeira K. et al.Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification.Science. 2007; 318: 1737-1742Crossref PubMed Scopus (3885) Google Scholar]. While the abundance of coral has declined in recent decades [2Gardner T.A. Côté I.M. Gill J.A. Grant A. Watkinson A.R. Long-term region-wide declines in Caribbean corals.Science. 2003; 301: 958-960Crossref PubMed Scopus (1506) Google Scholar, 3Bruno J.F. Selig E.R. Regional decline of coral cover in the Indo-Pacific: timing, extent, and subregional comparisons.PLoS ONE. 2007; 2: e711Crossref PubMed Scopus (866) Google Scholar], the implications for humanity are difficult to quantify because they depend on ecosystem function rather than the corals themselves. Most reef functions and ecosystem services are founded on the ability of reefs to maintain their three-dimensional structure through net carbonate accumulation [4Done T.J. Ogden J.C. Wiebe W.J. Rosen B.R. Biodiversity and ecosystem function of coral reefs.in: Mooney H.A. Cushman J.H. Medina E. Sala O.E. Schulze E.-D. Functional roles of biodiversity: A global perspective. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK1996Google Scholar]. Coral growth only constitutes part of a reef's carbonate budget; bioerosion processes are influential in determining the balance between net structural growth and disintegration [5Perry C.T. Edinger E.N. Kench P.S. Murphy G.N. Smithers S.G. Steneck R.S. Mumby P.J. Estimating rates of biologically driven coral reef framework production and erosion: a new census-based carbonate budget methodology and applications to the reefs of Bonaire.Coral Reefs. 2012; 31: 853-868Crossref Scopus (130) Google Scholar, 6Stearn C.W. Scoffin T.P. Martindale W. Calcium carbonate budget of a fringing reef on the west coast of Barbados. Part 1: Zonation and Productivity.Bull. Mar. Sci. 1977; 27: 479-510Google Scholar]. Here, we combine ecological models with carbonate budgets and drive the dynamics of Caribbean reefs with the latest generation of climate models. Budget reconstructions using documented ecological perturbations drive shallow (6–10 m) Caribbean forereefs toward an increasingly fragile carbonate balance. We then projected carbonate budgets toward 2080 and contrasted the benefits of local conservation and global action on climate change. Local management of fisheries (specifically, no-take marine reserves) and the watershed can delay reef loss by at least a decade under "business-as-usual" rises in greenhouse gas emissions. However, local action must be combined with a low-carbon economy to prevent degradation of reef structures and associated ecosystem services.