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Heading for the Exits: Democratic Allies and Withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan

2014; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 10; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/17419166.2014.946017

1741-9166

Jason W. Davidson,

Global Peace and Security Dynamics

AbstractThe United States’ democratic allies with troops deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan have faced intense conflicting pressures in recent years. On the one hand, long and costly deployments have led to increased public pressure for withdrawal. On the other hand, pressure from the United States and the state’s own national interest often favor remaining deployed. This article seeks to explain why US allies sometimes announce withdrawal decisions prior to the United States, whereas they sometimes remain deployed. The article focuses on three allies that have made relatively large military contributions to US-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq: Australia, Italy, and the Netherlands. The article offers three core findings. First, when the opposition in an allied government joins the public in favoring withdrawal, withdrawal is very likely. Second, allies are likely to remain deployed when the government and opposition share a consensus on the value of their alliance with the United States and agree that the target of intervention is a threat to their national interest. Third, allied government/opposition consensus falters when policymakers believe there will be minimal alliance fallout from a withdrawal decision, when they do not believe the target to be a threat, or when they believe that the US-led intervention is unlikely to succeed.KeywordsAfghanistanAustraliaItalyIraqThe NetherlandsWithdrawal Notes1. 1. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_orbat_coalition.htm2. 2. http://http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8400815.stm; http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Switzerland_ends_military_mission_in_Afghanistan.html?cid=6457084; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-10829837. South Korea and the Netherlands have since returned to Afghanistan with small contingents. http://www.isaf.nato.int/troop-numbers-and-contributions/index.php3. 3. Recent work on coalition war fighting recognizes that despite inefficiencies, the United States prefers to fight with allies. Patricia A. Weitsman, Waging War: Alliances, Coalitions, and Institutions of Interstate Violence (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2014); David P. Auerswald and Stephen M. Saideman, NATO in Afghanistan: Fighting Together, Fighting Alone (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2014).4. 4. Andrew Bennett, Joseph Lepgold, and Danny Unger, Friends in Need: Burden Sharing in the Persian Gulf War (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1997). See also Andrew Bennett, Joseph Lepgold, and Danny Unger, “Burden-sharing in the Persian Gulf War,” International Organization 48, no. 1 (Winter 1994): 39–75.5. 5. David P. Auerswald, “Explaining Wars of Choice: An Integrated Decision Model of NATO Policy in Kosovo,” International Studies Quarterly 48, no. 3 (September 2004): 631–662.6. 6. Jürgen Schuster and Herbert Maier, “The Rift: Explaining Europe’s Divergent Iraq Policies in the Run-Up of the American-Led War on Iraq,” Foreign Policy Analysis 2, no. 3 (July 2006): 223–244.7. 7. Atsushi Tago, “Why Do States Join US-led Military Coalitions? The Compulsion of the Coalition’s Missions and Legitimacy,” International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 7, no. 2 (2007): 179–202.8. 8. Daniel F. Baltrusaitis, Coalition Politics and the Iraq War: Determinants of Choice (Boulder: First Forum Press, 2010).9. 9. Jason W. Davidson, America’s Allies and War: Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011).10. 10. Stéfanie von Hlatky, American Allies in Times of War: The Great Asymmetry (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013).11. 11. Atsushi Tago, “When Are Democratic Friends Unreliable? The Unilateral Withdrawal of Troops from the ‘Coalition of the Willing,’” Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 2 (March 2009): 219–234.12. 12. Sarah Kreps, “Elite Consensus as a Determinant of Alliance Cohesion: Why Public Opinion Hardly Matters for NATO-led Operations in Afghanistan,” Foreign Policy Analysis 6, no. 3 (July 2010): 191–216.13. 13. Ibid., 211.14. 14. Julian E. Barnes and Paul Richter, “Bush Agrees to ‘Horizon’ for Pullout,” Los Angeles Times, July 19, 2008.15. 15. http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-address-nation-way-forward-afghanistan-and-pakistan16. 16. Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005), 67.17. 17. Margaret G. Hermann, “How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy: A Theoretical Framework,” International Studies Review 3, no. 2 (Summer 2001), 54.18. 18. Ibid., 183.19. 19. Ibid., 206.20. 20. On the importance of circumstances in determining the utility of sources, see George and Bennett, 100.21. 21. For caution on selective release, see George and Bennett, 100.22. 22. George and Bennett, 91.23. 23. For the same classification of these countries in a study that argues for the importance of institutions, see Auerswald and Saideman, 175, 180.24. 24. Ibid., 17.25. 25. Ibid., 209.26. 26. Ibid., 207, 215.27. 27. Ibid., 91, 222.28. 28. Gianna Fregonara, “L’Italia restera’ anche dopo il 30 Giugno,” Corriere della Sera, April 7, 2004.29. 29. Andrew Bennett, Joseph Lepgold, and Danny Unger eds., Friends in Need: Burden Sharing in the Persian Gulf War (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1997), 347.30. 30. Tago, “When Are Democratic Friends Unreliable?” 220; Kreps, “Elite Consensus,” 201.31. 31. Davidson, America’s Allies and War, 175.32. 32. A growing literature seeks to explain variance in public support for military operations. See David Betz, “The Virtual Dimension of Contemporary Insurgency and Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars & Insurgencies 19, no. 4 (2008): 510–540; Adam J. Berinsky, “Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict,” Journal of Politics, 69, no. 4 (November 2007): 975–997; Jens Ringsmose and Berit Kaja Borgesen, “Shaping Public Attitudes towards the Deployment of Military Power: NATO, Afghanistan, and the Use of Strategic Narratives,” European Security 20, no. 4 (December 2011): 505–528; George Dimitriu and Beatrice de Graaf, “The Dutch Counterinsurgency Approach in Uruzgan: Political and Military Lessons.” http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1017&context=george_dimitriu33. 33. For an application of electoral politics logic to allied withdrawal, see Tago, “When Are Democratic Friends Unreliable?,” 223.34. 34. Opposition parties must be credible threats to replace the governing party in office.35. 35. Kreps, “Elite Consensus,” 199; Davidson, America’s Allies and War, 18–20.36. 36. Roger Bell, “Extreme Allies: Australia and the USA,” in John Cotton and John Ravenhill eds., Trading on Alliance Security: Australia and World Affairs 2001–2005 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), 38.37. 37. Bell, “Extreme Allies,” 41.38. 38. Samantha Maiden, “Mr Smith going to Washington to negotiate pullout from Iraq,” The Australian, December 3, 2007.39. 39. Christopher Hubbard, Australian and US Military Cooperation: Fighting Common Enemies (Aldershot: Ashgate, 2005), 60. See also 106.40. 40. Greg Sheridan, The Partnership: The Inside Story of the US–Australian Alliance under Bush and Howard (Sydney: New South, 2006), 168.41. 41. Hubbard, 120.42. 42. John Howard, “Howard’s Address to Parliament on Iraq,” February 4, 2003. Howard speeches accessed at http://australianpolitics.com/executive/howard/news.shtml. See also Downer, “Australia and the Threat of Global Terrorism.”43. 43. John Howard, “Latham Should Reconsider Iraq Stand,” March 24, 2004.44. 44. Kevin Rudd, “Australia: More of a Target Than We Need to Be,” March 7, 2003. Rudd speeches accessed at http://pmrudd.archive.dpmc.gov.au/45. 45. Kevin Rudd “Press Conference, Blair House, Washington DC,” March 28, 2008; Stephen Smith, “2GB Interview with Alan Jones,” January 30, 2008.46. 46. Robert McCallum, “AUSTRALIAN IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS DEPENDENT ON ELECTION OUTCOME,” November 2, 2007. This and all subsequent diplomatic cables were attained from http://www.cablesearch.org between January and April 2012.47. 47. Robert McCallum, “U/S BURNS’ 12/4 MEETING WITH AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE MINISTER,” December 11, 2007.48. 48. Robert McCallum, “AUSMIN 2008: SESSION I (IRAQ, IRAN, MIDDLE EAST),” February 25, 2008.49. 49. Howard, “Latham Should Reconsider.”50. 50. Downer, “Australia and the Threat of Global Terrorism.”51. 51. Robert McCallum, “AMBASSADOR’S INTRODUCTORY CALL ON OPPOSITION LEADER KIM BEAZLEY,” September 8, 2006.52. 52. Robert McCallum, “RUDD’S POLICY ADVISER ON IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN AND ASIA,” April 13, 2007.53. 53. Stephen Smith, “Radio National Interview,” January 30, 2008.54. 54. Stephen Smith, “Press Conference,” June 2, 2008.55. 55. Ibid.56. 56. Stephen Smith, “Sky News Australia, Australian Agenda with David Speer,” July 3, 2009.57. 57. Murray Goot, “Neither Entirely Comfortable nor Wholly Relaxed: Public Opinion, Electoral Politics and Foreign Policy,” in John Cotton and John Ravenhill, eds., Trading on Alliance Security: Australia and World Affairs 2001–2005 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), 271.58. 58. John Howard, “Interview with Larry King on CNN‘s Larry King Live,” March 28, 2003. See also Sheridan, 20.59. 59. Goot, 277.60. 60. Robert McCallum, “AUSTRALIA TO DEPLOY ADDITIONAL MILITARY TRAINERS TO IRAQ,” February 20, 2007.61. 61. Sheridan, 250. See also Ian McAllister and Clive Bean, “Leaders, the Economy or Iraq? Explaining Voting in the 2004 Australian Election,” Australian Journal of Politics and History 52, no. 4 (2006): 617.62. 62. Daniel Clune, “CODEL HOYER MEETS WITH PRIME MINISTER RUDD,” January 7, 2008. For an alternative perspective see Peter Hartcher, To the Bitter End: The Dramatic Story behind the Fall of John Howard and the Rise of Kevin Rudd (Crow’s Nest: Allen & Unwin, 2009), 3–4.63. 63. Zalmay Khalilzad, “NEW AUSTRALIAN AMBASSADOR CALLS ON AMBASSADOR KHALILZAD” September 6, 2006.64. 64. Sheridan, 43.65. 65. Auerswald and Saideman, 4.66. 66. Ibid., 17.67. 67. John, Howard, “Trade Issues on Agenda for Howard’s American Visit,” June 12, 2002.68. 68. White, 179.69. 69. Kevin Rudd, “Global Financial Market,” April 28, 2008. See also Kevin Rudd, “Partnerships,” December 18, 2008.70. 70. McCallum, “Ambassador’s Introductory.”71. 71. Daniel Clune, “AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN POLICY REVIEW: AUSTRALIAN NSA LEWIS TRAVEL TO WASHINGTON,” February 20, 2009.72. 72. See, for example, Howard, “Trade Issues.”73. 73. John Howard, “Howard’s Bali Press Conference,” October 18, 2002; Alexander Downer, “Australia Security Policy: New Challenges, Enduring Interests,” November 4, 2002; Stephen Smith, “A Modern Australia for a New Era,” April 9, 2008.74. 74. Alexander Downer, “The Global Strategic Environment: an Australian Perspective,” October 31, 2002.75. 75. Howard, “Howard Announces Additional Troops.” Other examples include Downer, “Australia and the United States: Shared Interests”; Downer, “Advancing the National Interest.”76. 76. Kevin Rudd,” Address to the National Press Club,” October 15, 2008.77. 77. Smith, “2GB Interview.” See also Stephen Smith, “Newshour, Australia Network,” June 6, 2008.78. 78. Kevin Rudd, “Interview with Neil Mitchell Radio 3AW,” July 22, 2009. See also Kevin Rudd, “Press Conference, Parliament House,” April 29, 2009.79. 79. This despite cases where it might have been useful to do so, such as a joint press conference with Condoleezza Rice. Smith, “Joint Interview with US Secretary of State.”80. 80. See, for example, Robert McCallum, “SCENE SETTER FOR CDR USN SEVENTH FLEET VADM J. BIRD VISIT TO AUSTRALIA JAN 23, 2009,” January 16, 2009.81. 81. Daniel Clune, “PRIME MINISTER RUDD ANNOUNCES ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION TO AFGHANISTAN,” April 29, 2009.82. 82. Goot, 262.83. 83. Robert McCallum, “POLL: AUSTRALIANS MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD U.S., WARY OF CHINA,” September 30, 2008.84. 84. Stephen Smith, “Sky News: Interview with Ashleigh Dillon,” March 30, 2009.85. 85. Rudd, “Press Conference Parliament House.”86. 86. Howard, Lazarus, 389. See also Sheridan, 39.87. 87. Jason W. Davidson, “In and out of Iraq: A Vote-seeking Explanation of Berlusconi’s Iraq Policy,” Modern Italy 13, no. 1 (February 2008): 41–42.88. 88. Alessandro Trocino, “Missione civile a Nassiriya, tre giorni di accuse con Martino,” Corriere della Sera, June 15, 2006.89. 89. Ennio Carretto, “Bush si congratula con Berlusconi,” Corriere della Sera, July 3, 2003. Riccardo Alcaro, “I rapporti transatlantici,” in Alessandro Colombo and Natalino Ronzitti eds., L’Italia e la politica internazionale: Edizione 2006 (Bologna: Il Mulino, 2006), 57.90. 90. Ennio Carretto, “Bush chiede l’aiuto degli alleati per l’Iraq,” Corriere della Sera, July 21, 2003.91. 91. Paola Di Caro, “Berlusconi e Bush Un Alleanza piu’ forte,” Corriere della Sera, December 16, 2004.92. 92. Paola Di Caro, “Emergenza umanitaria, l’Italia si prepara,” Corriere della Sera, April 12, 2003. See also Gianna Fregonara, “L’America dice grazie a Ciampi e Berlusconi,” Corriere della Sera, May 20, 2003.93. 93. Francesco Verderami, “Un patto con Bush prima della guerra,” Corriere della Sera, April 15, 2003.94. 94. Marco Galluzzo, “Appello di Berlusconi: Tacciano le Polemiche,” Corriere della Sera, November 13, 2003.95. 95. Livia Michilli, “Un Nuovo Iraq, I nostri soldati devono restare,” Corriere della Sera, November 16, 2003.96. 96. Paola Di Caro, “Berlusconi: ritiro da Settembre solo un auspicio,” Corriere della Sera, March 17, 2005.97. 97. Mel Sembler, “IRAQ/ITALY—TRANSCRIPT AND COMMENT ON BERLUSCONI’S TROOP REDUCTION COMMENTS,” March 17, 2005.98. 98. Ronald Spogli, “IRAQ: ITALY-US-UK TRILATS, JANUARY 19, 2006,” January 26, 2006.99. 99. Maurizio Caprara, “Le difficolta’ techniche di un’uscita di scena troppo rapida,” Corriere della Sera, August 14, 2005.100. 100. Galluzzo, “Appello di Berlusconi.” See also Gianna Fregonara, “Berlusconi: L’Italia restera’ anche dopo il 30 Giugno,” Corriere della Sera, April 7, 2004.101. 101. Alfredo Mantica, “The important humanitarian role of the Italian Mission in Iraq,” Il Tempo, November 10, 2003. See also Alfredo Mantica, “Iraq Mourning Calls for Silence and Solidarity,” Italia Oggi, November 13, 2003.102. 102. Paola Di Caro, “Truppe in Iraq e Onu, la mossa di Berlusconi,” Corriere della Sera, April 22, 2004.103. 103. Renato Mannheimer, “Gli Italiani dicono di no al ritiro dall’Iraq,” Corriere della Sera, March 1, 2004.104. 104. Renato Mannheimer, “L’ultimo dramma di Nassirya non fa crescere i si al ritiro,” Corriere della Sera, May 16, 2004.105. 105. Renato Mannheimer, “Silvio più cauto recupera voti,” Corriere della Sera, March 7, 2005.106. 106. Di Caro, “Berlusconi: ritiro.”107. 107. Piero Ignazi, Giampiero Giacomello, and Fabrizio Coticchia, Italian Military Operations Abroad (Houndmills: Palgrave, 2012), 140–142.108. 108. Maurizio Caprara, “La Missione in Iraq non e’solo umanitaria,” Corriere della Sera, May 5, 2003.109. 109. Maurizio Caprara, “Missione Italiana in Iraq: Il voto contrario dell’Ulivo,” Corriere della Sera, July 25, 2003.110. 110. Monica Guerzoni, “Prodi dice si al ritiro,” Corriere della Sera, May 14, 2004. See also Stefano Folli, “Divisi sull’Iraq, con molti rischi,” Corriere della Sera, May 16, 2004.111. 111. Daria Gorodinsky,“La Camera boccia il ritiro delle truppe,” Corriere della Sera, October 28, 2004.112. 112. Franco Venturini, “Le ambiguita’ di una quasi svolta” Corriere della Sera, March 17, 2005.113. 113. Roberto Zuccolini, “Diviso il popolo filoUsa,” Corriere della Sera, March 17, 2005.114. 114. Maurizio Caprara, “Svolta in Iraq: meno italiani a Nassirya,” Corriere della Sera, August 14, 2005.115. 115. Ronald Spogli, “SCENESETTER FOR PM BERLUSCONI’S VISIT TO WASHINGTON, FEBRUARY 27 TO MARCH 1,” February 15, 2006.116. 116. Davidson, “In and out of Iraq,” 46.117. 117. Auerswald and Saideman, 4.118. 118. Ibid., 17, 172.119. 119. Franco Venturini “Le nostre truppe resteranno in Afghanistan,” Corriere della Sera, June 21, 2005. Walston, 134–35.120. 120. Massimo D’Alema, “Senato della Repubblica e III della Camera dei Deputati,” April 16, 2006.121. 121. Gianni Vernetti, “Molto da fare in Afghanistan,” Europa, June 14, 2006.122. 122. Monica Guerzoni, “Afghanistan, il PDCI blocca accordo D’Alema,” Corriere della Sera, June 28, 2006.123. 123. Francesco Alberti, “Non mi dimetto so tenere la barra, “Corriere della Sera, February 3, 2007.124. 124. See, for example, Fiorenza Sarzanini, “No alla fuga,” Corriere della Sera, May 4, 2009.125. 125. Sergio Romano, “Italiani in Afghanistan,” Corriere della Sera, July 4, 2007.126. 126. Ronald Spogli, “ITALY: THE DOGS BARK, AND THE PRODI CARAVAN MOVES,” August 31, 2006.127. 127. Ronald Spogli, “FINAL THOUGHTS ON THE U.S.-ITALY RELATIONSHIP: WHAT WE CAN ASK FROM … ,” February 5, 2009.128. 128. David Thorne, “ISAF: NEXT STEPS FOR ITALY’S 1,000 TROOP COMMITMENT,” December 4, 2009.129. 129. Viviana Mazza, “D’Alema: la strategia militare e’ fallita,” Corriere della Sera, October 29, 2006.130. 130. Massimo Franco, “Altola’ del Professore, aspettando l’Afghanistan,” Corriere della Sera, February 3, 2007.131. 131. Sergio Romano, “L’Afghnistan ieri e oggi,” Corriere della Sera, April 16, 2007.132. 132. Marco Cremonesi, “Bossi accelera. impegno esaurito,” Corriere della Sera, September 18, 2009.133. 133. Carlo Fusi, “Interview with Minister Frattini,” Il Messaggero, July 28, 2009.134. 134. Ronald Spogli, “ITALY: AMBASSADOR’S TOUR D’HORIZON WITH PRODI AND CENTER-LEFT LEADERS,” September 23, 2005.135. 135. Ronald Spogli, “ITALIAN FM D’ALEMA SEEKING GOOD START TO RELATIONSHIP, WILLING TO DO MORE IN IRAQ UNDER NATO, June 13, 2006.136. 136. David Thorne, “AFGHANISTAN: ITALY CAUTIOUSLY SUPPORTIVE ON REQUEST FOR TROOPS,” November 25, 2009.137. 137. Gianna Fregonara, “L’aula e’ gia divisa,” Corriere della Sera, 18 September, 2009.138. 138. Maurizio Caprara, “Italia per ora non invia altre truppe,” Corriere della Sera, 28 April 2007.139. 139. Livia Michilli, “Afghanistan, Via libera finale,” Corriere della Sera, 29 July 2006.140. 140. James Walston, “Foreign Policy: The Difficult Pursuit of Influence,” in Mark Donovan and Paolo Onofri, eds., Italian Politics 2007: Frustrated Aspirations for Change (New York: Berghan Books, 2009), 123–124.141. 141. Marzio Breada, “Missione, Appello del Quirinale” Corriere della Sera, March 28, 2007.142. 142. Sarzanini, “No alla fuga.”143. 143. Elizabeth Dibble, “GETTING ITALY TO DO MORE IN AFGHANISTAN,” February 13, 2009.144. 144. “The Netherlands Wants to Help Stabilise Iraq,” June 6, 2003. http://www.government.nl/News/Press_releases_and_news_items/2003/June/The_Netherlands_wants_to_help_stabilise_Iraq145. 145. “Dutch Troops to Stay Extra Six Months in Iraq,” November 28, 2003. http://www.government.nl/News/Press_releases_and_news_items/2003/November/Dutch_troops_to_stay_extra_six_months_in_Iraq; “Dutch military contribution to Iraq extended,” June 11, 2004. http://www.government.nl/News/Press_releases_and_news_items/2004/June/Dutch_military_contribution_to_Iraq_extended146. 146. Charles Clover and Stefan Wagstyl, “Two More States to Quit Iraq coalition,” Financial Times, November 4, 2004.147. 147. Rob de Wijk, “Transatlantic Relations: A View from the Netherlands,” International Journal 59, no. 1 (Winter 2003/2004): 170.148. 148. Ian Bickerton, “Dutch Hoping to Use Their Influence to Bridge the EU-US Rift,” Financial Times, October 6, 2003.149. 149. Giles Scott-Smith, “Testing the Limits of a Special Relationship: US Unilateralism and Dutch Multilateralism in the Twenty-first Century,” in Dumbrell and Schäfer, eds., America’s Special Relationships, 116.150. 150. de Wijk, “Transatlantic Relations,” 176.151. 151. Hylarides, “Dithering Diplomacy,” 343.152. 152. Christ Klep, “Peacekeeping and the War on Terror,” in Hans Krabbendam, Cornelis A. Van Minnen, and Giles Scott-Smith, eds., Four Centuries of Dutch–American Relations (Albany: SUNY Press, 2009), 735.153. 153. “Remarks Following Discussions with Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende of the Netherlands and an Exchange with Reporters,” March 16, 2004. http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PPP-2004-book1/pdf/PPP-2004-book1.pdf154. 154. Peter Spiegel, “US sees coalition allies step up pace of pull-out,” Financial Times, January 27, 2005. See also Klep, 733.155. 155. Clifford Sobel, “NETHERLANDS/IRAQ: DUTCH WITHDRAWAL POSITION HARDENING,” October 28, 2004.156. 156. Daniel Russel, “NETHERLANDS/IRAQ: MAINTAINING MULTINATIONAL FORCES IN IRAQ,” September 1, 2004; Clifford Sobel, “NETHERLANDS/IRAQ: RECONFIGURING THE DUTCH PRESENCE,” November 19, 2004.157. 157. “Dutch to Send 1,100 Peacekeepers to Iraq,” June 7, 2003, AP Online.158. 158. “Dutch leader says international community should stand together against terrorism,” 16 March 2004, Associated Press Newswires.159. 159. “U.S.-European Union Joint Press Conference,” December 10, 2004. http://2001-2009.state.gov/secretary/former/powell/remarks/39668.htm160. 160. Daniel Russel, “DUTCH PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE ON IRAQ,” August 27, 2004.161. 161. Ibid.162. 162. Daniel Russel, “NETHERLANDS/IRAQ: MAINTAINING MULTINATIONAL FORCES IN IRAQ,” September 1, 2004.163. 163. One might ask whether this was a post facto justification for a decision made for other reasons. Given the presumption of secrecy in the Dutch communications to US Embassy officials and in the Embassy reports to Washington, it seems that Kamp would be frank and that if American diplomats suspected the statement was a justification they would have said so.164. 164. “Remarks Following Discussions with Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende,” March 16, 2004. http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PPP-2004-book1/pdf/PPP-2004-book1.pdf. For data indicating majority approval see Transatlantic Trends, 2004, German Marshall Fund of the United States. http://trends.gmfus.org/files/archived/doc/2004_english_top.pdf165. 165. “Dutch Troops End Iraq Mission,” Australian Associated Press, February 22, 2005. http://aap.com.au/166. 166. Kaarbo, 110.167. 167. “Dutch Opposition against Third Term for 1,200 Dutch Troops in Iraq,” March 16, 2004, Agence France Presse—English.168. 168. Hylarides, “Dithering Diplomacy,” 342. See also Kaarbo, 106.169. 169. Clifford Sobel, “DUTCH PARLIAMENT DEBATES IRAQ,” April 16, 2004.170. 170. “Dutch Troops to Withdraw from Iraq in Next March,” Xinhua News Agency, November 12, 2004, http://www.xinhua.org; “Dutch Troops to Leave Iraq in March,” ABC News Online, November 13, 2004, http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200411/s1242858.htm171. 171. “Dutch Troops to Leave Iraq Mid-March,” Agence France Press, January 17, 2005.172. 172. “Dutch Troops End Iraq Mission,” Australian Associated Press, February 22, 2005. http://aap.com.au/173. 173. Bertjan Verbeek and Anna van der Vleuten, “The Domesticization of the Foreign Policy of the Netherlands (1989–2007): The Paradoxical Result of Europeanization and Internationalization,” Acta Politica 43 (2008): 362.174. 174. Sobel, “DUTCH WITHDRAWAL POSITION HARDENING.”175. 175. “International Contributions to the War Against Terrorism,” May 22, 2002, Office of Public Affairs, United States Department of Defense. http://www.defense.gov/news/May2002/d20020523cu.pdf176. 176. “Dutch Troops Planned for Afghanistan Force: Government,” Agence France Presse—English, January 13, 2006.177. 177. Auerswald and Saideman, 17, 152.178. 178. Hans De Vreij, “The Netherlands Extends Mission in Afghanistan,” Jane’s Defense Weekly, December 5, 2007.179. 179. Katharine Murphy, “Rudd’s Afghan War Plea to Dutch; US Concern over Troop Exit,” The Age, November 13, 2009.180. 180. Paul Lucardie and Gerrit Veorman, “The Netherlands,” European Journal of Political Research 50 (2011): 1072.181. 181. Kaarbo, 109.182. 182. Tobias Buck, “US Sees Coalitions of the Willing as Best Ally,” Financial Times, January 5, 2006.183. 183. “US ‘Perplexed’ over Dutch Hesitance on Afghanistan Force,” Agence France Presse— English, January 10, 2006.184. 184. Ryan C. Hendrickson, “What Options for NATO? Dutch Force Projection and Defense Capabilities,” Comparative Strategy 28 (2009): 63.185. 185. Scott-Smith, 120.186. 186. Verhagen, “Over the Dikes and into the World.”187. 187. Maxime Verghagen, “Changing World, Constant Values,” September 1, 2008. http://www.government.nl/documents-and-publications188. 188. Scott-Smith, 121. See also Mark Joyce, “NATO’s Future Credibility Is Now in Dutch Hands,” Financial Times, January 19, 2006.189. 189. Simon Kuper, “Dutch Consider Staying in Afghanistan,” Financial Times, February 7, 2009.190. 190. Quentin Peel, “Afghan War: What Is Wrong with the Europeans?” Financial Times, April 8, 2009.191. 191. “NATO Chief Asks Dutch to Take on New Afghan Mission,” Agence France Presse—English, February 10, 2010.192. 192. Michael Gallagher, “AMBASSADOR DAALDER PRESSES DUTCH TO STAY THE COURSE IN AFGHANISTAN,” September 10, 2009.193. 193. Nicholas Kulish, “Dutch Government Collapses over Its Stance on Troops for Afghanistan,” New York Times, February 21, 2010.194. 194. Chat Blakeman, “NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: WHAT THE DUTCH WANT,” November 9, 2009.195. 195. Foster, “NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: ENROUTE TO YES ON MOST ‘ASKS’ POST-2010,” July 13, 2009. See also Gallagher, “AMBASSADOR DAALDER.”196. 196. Gallagher, “AMBASSADOR DAALDER.” I edited the quotation to correct typographical errors.197. 197. Kamp, “New Future,” 42.198. 198. Kaarbo, 114. See also Advisory Council, Netherlands and Crisis Management, 9.199. 199. “Peacekeeping in Afghanistan Is Modern Crisis Management: Dutch Parliamentary Debate on Troops for Afghanistan,” European Affairs 7, nos. 1 & 2 (Spring/Summer 2006). http://www.europeaninstitute.org/20060302155/Spring/Summer-2006/peacekeeping-in-afghanistan-is-modern-crisis-management.html200. 200. Verhagen, “Over the Dikes and into the World.”201. 201. “Speech Verhagen at Atlantische Commissie,” March 27, 2008. http://www.government.nl/documents-and-publications202. 202. “Dutch Parliament Appears Set to Approve Afghanistan Mission,” Agence France Presse—English, February 1, 2006.203. 203. Roland Arnall, “NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: DAS GASTRIGHT’S MARCH 13 VISIT TO THE HAGUE,” March 20, 2007.204. 204. “NATO’s Afghan Test: More Troops, More Coherence and, Above All, Development,” Financial Times, February 4, 2008.205. 205. Kuper, “Dutch Consider Staying.”206. 206. “Speech by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Maxime Verhagen, at the Sydney Institute,” January 20, 2009. http://www.government.nl/documents-and-publications207. 207. Kamp, “New Future,” 46.208. 208. Kaarbo, 116.209. 209. “Dutch Decision on Afghanistan Affects Canada,” Toronto Star, August 31, 2007.210. 210. Kulish, “Dutch Government Collapses.”211. 211. Ibid.212. 212. Fay Hartog Levin, “NETHERLANDS/AFTHANISTAN: NEXT STEPS AFTER PARLIAMENTARY RESOLUTION AGAINST STAYING IN URUZGAN,” November 2, 2009.213. 213. Kaarbo, 115.214. 214. Scott-Smith, 126.215. 215. Kaarbo, 117.216. 216. Kulish, “Dutch Government Collapses”; Michael Steen, “Dutch Role Terminated by Failure of Coalition,” Financial Times, February 22, 2010.217. 217. Lucardie and Veorman, “The Netherlands,” 1073.218. 218. Joop J. M. Van Holsteyn, “The Dutch Parliamentary Election of 2010,” West European Politics 34, no. 2 (March 2011): 413.219. 219. Ian Traynor, “Dutch Coalition Collapses after Row over Troops’ Afghan Mission,” The Guardian, February 22, 2010.220. 220. Fay Hartog Levin, “NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: VIEW FROM THE PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE,” November 6, 2009.