Narcotics, Radicalism, and Armed Conflict in Central Asia: The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
2005; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 17; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/095465591009395
ISSN1556-1836
Autores Tópico(s)Whitehead's Philosophy and Applications
ResumoWhile the academic debate on security has broadened in recent years, it has failed to cohesively include transnational organized crime and drug trafficking as a security issue. However, especially in weak states in developing and postcommunist regions, these phenomena are having an increasingly negative effect on security in the military, political, economic, and societal sense. Security issues in Central Asia are a prominentexample of the links between drug trafficking and military threats to security. This is illustrated most clearly by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which has been both a major actor in the drug trade from Afghanistan to Central Asia as well as the most serious violent nonstate actor in the region. The link between the drug trade and armed conflict is of fundamental importance to understanding the challenges to Central Asian security. Notes 1. For a review of the debate see Keith Krause, "Broadening the Agenda of Security Studies: Politics and Methods," Mershon International Studies Review 40, no. 2, 229–254 (1996). 2. See for example Peter Wallensteen and Margareta Sollenberg, "The End of International War? Armed Conflict 1989–1995," Journal of Peace Research 33, no. 3 (1995): 353–70; Kumar Rupesinhe, ed., Internal Conflict and Governance (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1992). 3. Barry Buzan, Ole Waever, and Jaap de Wilde, Security: A New Framework for Analysis (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998), 6–7. 4. Barry Buzan, People, States and Fear, London: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1983 and revised edition, 1991; Vincent Cable, "What Is Economic Security?" International Affairs 71 no. 2, 305–324 (1995); Paul Roe, "The Intrastate Security Dilemma: Ethnic Conflict as 'Tragedy'?" Journal of Peace Research 36, no. 2 (1999): 183–202; Thomas Homer-Dixon, Environment, Scarcity, and Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999). 5. Krause, "Broadening the Agenda of Security Studies," 247. 6. Tamara Makarenko, "Terrorism and Transnational Organized Crime: The Emerging Nexus," in Paul Smith (ed.), Transnational Violence and Seams of Lawlessness in the Asia-Pacific: Linkages to Global Terrorism (Hawaii: Asia Pacific Center for Strategic Studies, forthcoming); Kimberley Thachuk, "Transnational Threats: Falling Through the Cracks?" Low Intensity Conflict and Law Enforcement 10, no. 1, 47–67 (2001). 7. Following the levels of security laid out in Buzan, People, States and Fear and the sectors of security laid out in more detail in Buzan, Waever, and de Wilde, Security. See also Niklas Swanström, "Drugs as a Threat to Security: The Cases of Central Asia and the Caucasus," (presented at the 11th International Conference on Central Asia and the Caucasus, Institute for Political and International Studies, Tehran, Iran, December 8–9, 2003). 8. Cable, "What Is Economic Security?" 321, 323. 9. Phil Williams, "Transnational Criminal Organizations and International Security," in In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the information Age, ed. John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, 329 (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1997). 10. Buzan Waever, and de Wilde, Security, 153. 11. For the debate on "hard" and "soft security," see, for example, Ibid. 12. Exceptions to this are Makarenko, "Transnational Organised Crime;" Thachuk, "Transnational Threats; Sabrina Adamoli et al., Organized Crime Around the World (Helsinki: HEUNI, 1998); Barbara Harris-White, Globalization and Insecurity: Political, Economic and Physical Challenges (New York: Palgrave, 2002); Ivelaw Griffith, "From Cold War Geopolitics to Post–Cold War Geonarcotics," International Journal 30, no. 2 (1993–94); R. Matthew and G. Shambaugh, "Sex, Drugs, and Heavy Metal: Transnational Threats and National Vulnerabilities," Security Dialogue 29, no. 2 (1998): 163–175. 13. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2003 (New York: United Nations, 2003); Martha Brill Olcott and Natalia Udalova, "Drug Trafficking on the Great Silk Road" working paper no. 11, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, 2000; Alexander Seger, Drugs and Development in the Central Asian Republics (Bonn: Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit, 1996); Nancy Lubin, Alex Kaits, and Igor Barsegian, Narcotics Interdiction in Central Asia and Afghanistan: Challenges for International Donors (New York: Open Society Institute, 2002) Pierre-Arnaud Chouvy, "Opiate Smuggling Routes from Afghanistan to Europe and Asia," Jane's Intelligence Review 15, no. 3, 32–35 (2003). 14. "Estimated Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan," Office of National Drug Control Policy, http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/news/press04/111904.html. Accessed 20 August 2005. 15. John M. Kramer, "Drug Abuse in Russia: Emerging Pandemic or Overhyped Diversion?" Problems of Post-Communism 50, no. 6, 12–27 (2003) B. Boev, "Narcotics Abuse in Russia: Analysis and Forecasting of the Demographic Consequences" Russian Education and Society 45, no. 3 (2003): 43–58. 16. Tim Rhodes et al., "HIV Infection Associated with Drug Injecting in the NIS, Eastern Europe: The Social and Economic Context of Epidemics," Addiction 94, no. 9, (1999) 1323–36; Tamara Men et al., "Russian Mortaliy Trends for 1991–2001: Analysis by Cause and Region," British Medical Journal 327, (2003): 964–66. 17. In 2002–3, Kazakhstan had an estimated 180,000–250,000 drug users (1,39 percent of the population), Kyrgyzstan 60,000–75,000 (1.32 percent), Tajikistan 65,000–90,000 (1.25 percent), Uzbekistan 45,000–55,000 (0.2 percent.), while Turkmenistan's figures are estimated only at 13,000 (0.27 percent)—though they are highly unreliable. See Drug Trade in Eurasia Database (Uppsala Silk Road Studies Program), http://www.silkroadstudies.org/drugsdatabase.htm. Most estimates are from the UNODC, as well as government sources. 18. In 2000, drug-related crime in Tajikistan grew by 40 percent, and in 2001 by over 70 percent. See Konstantin Parshin, "Anti-Drug Trafficking Efforts Could Help Fight Terrorism," Eurasia Insight, September, 20 2001. On AIDS, see Joana Godinha and Laura Shrestha, "HIV/AIDS in Central Asia," World Bank Briefing Note, Washington, DC, March, 12 2002. 19. Tajikistan's GDP for 2003 is estimated at $1.2 billion. Meanwhile the production of opiates in neighboring northeastern Afghanistan, which is mainly smuggled through Tajikistan, stood at 5,400 metric tons of opium—roughly equivalent to 60 tons of heroin. High-quality heroin was priced at $7,000 a kilogram in Dushanbe, Tajikistan's capital, hence a value of $378 million. Of course, all of this income is not generated in Tajikistan, but shows the value of the drug trafficking business as compared to the economic production in the country. 20. Interfax Kazakhstan, "Heroin Found in Tajik Ambassador's Car in Kazakhstan," May 22, 2000. 21. RFE/RL Newsline, Tajik Leadership Implicated in Drug Smuggling," May 20, 1999; International Crisis Group, Cracks in the Marble: Turkmenistan's Failing Dictatorship (Brussels: International Crisis Group, 2003), 27–28; Rustem Safronov, "Turkmenistan's Niyazov Implicated in Drug Smuggling," Eurasianet, March 29, 2002; Alec Appelbaum, "Turkmen Dissident Accuses Niyazov of Crimes," Eurasianet, April 26, 2002; "Russia Turns Its Back on Turkmenbashi," Gazeta.ru, May 27, 2003, http://www.dogryyol.com/eng/print.php?article=354. 22. Phil Williams, "Transnational Criminal Organizations and International Security," Survival 36, no. 1 (1994): 96. 23. Thachuk, "Transnational Threats," 51. 24. Tamara Makarenko, "Crime, Terror, and the Central Asian Drug Trade," Harvard Asia Quarterly 6, no. 3, 2002. http://www.fas.harvard.edu/ ∼ asiactr./haq/200203/0203a004.htm 25. Phil Williams, "Transnational Criminal Networks," in Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime and Militancy, ed. John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, 61–97, 2001 (Santa Monica, CA: RAND); 61–97 Melvin Levitzky, "Transnational Criminal Networks and International Security," Syracuse Journal of International Law and Commerce 30, no. 2 (2003): 227–240. 26. Angel Rabasa and Peter Chalk, Colombian Labyrinth: The Synergy of Drugs and Insurgency and Its Implications for Regional Security (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2001). 27. Richard Millett, Colombia's Conflicts: The Spillover Effects of a Wider War (Carlilse, PA: U.S. Army War College, 2002); Rennselaer W. Lee, "Perverse Effects of Andean Counternarcotics Policy," Orbis 46, no. 3 (2002): 537–554. 28. See for example Rabasa and Chalk, Colombian Labyrinth. 29. Svante E. Cornell, "The Kurdish Question and Turkish Politics," Orbis 45, no. 1 (2001): 31–4; Michael Radu, "The Rise and Fall of the PKK," Orbis 45, no. 1 (2001): 47–63; Kemal Kirisci and Gareth Winrow, The Kurdish Question and Turkey (London: Frank Cass, 1997), Nur Bilge Criss, "The Nature of PKK Terrorism in Turkey," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 18, no. 1 (1995): 17–38; Michael M. Gunter, The Kurds in Turkey: A Political Dilemma (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1990); Henri J. Barkey and Graham E. Fuller, Turkey's Kurdish Question (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1998). 30. Suha Bolukbasi, "Ankara, Damascus, Baghdad, and the Regionalization of Turkey's Kurdish Secessionism," Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies 14, no. 4 (1991): 15–36. 31. Drug Enforcement Agency Intelligence Unit, "Drugs and Terrorism: A New Perspective," Drug Intelligence Brief, September 2002; U.S. State Department, International Narcotics Control Strategy 1992, 1996, 1998); Richard Cole, "Terrorism Feeding Off Habit of World's Heroin Users," Salt Lake City Tribune, December 16, 1996. 32. Joshua Kurlantzick, "China's Drug Problem and Looming HIV Epidemic," World Policy Journal 19, no. 2 (2002): 70–75; Don Pathan, "New Drug Army Rules Atop 'Golden Triangle,'" Seattle Times, March 3, 1999; Pierre-Arnaud Chouvy, "Géopolitique de la Production et du Trafic de Drogues Illicites en Asie," Hérodot no. 109 (2003): 163–89. 33. This paradigm was reflected clearly in the titles of some of the early books on the region: Ahmed Rashid, The Resurgence of Central Asia: Islam or Nationalism (London: Zed, 1994); Dilip Hiro, Between Marx and Muhammad (London: Harper Collins, 1995). 34. From the Arabic Salaf, meaning ancestors, referring to the idealized Islamic state founded by the Prophet in Medina and the immediate successors—the so-called "rightly guided caliphs." 35. Sunni Islam recognizes four maddhabs or schools of jurisprudence: the Hanafi, Shafi'i, Maliki, and Hanbali. The Hanafi tradition is the most moderate and tolerant of interpretation, whereas the Hanbali school is severely opposed to "folk Islam," Sufism, and the incorporation of non-Islamic customs and traditions. Deobandism, while nominally Hanafi, was founded in the late nineteenth century in British India, with strong influences from the rigorous Wahabi strain in Saudi Arabia. On Deobandism, see Barbara D. Metcalf, Islamic Revival in British India: Deoband, 1860–1900 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1982). 36. For a thorough overview of the development of radical Islam in Central Asia, see Vitaly Naumkin, "Militant Islam in Central Asia: The Case of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan" (Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies Working Paper Series 2003 University of California, Berkeley), 18–24. Also see Ahmed Rashid, Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002). 37. Naumkin, Militant Islam in Central Asia, 20–21. 38. Michael Fredholm, Uzbekistan and the Threat from Islamic Extremism (Sandhurst: United Kingdom Royal Military Academy, Conflict Studies Research Center, Report no. K39, 2003), 4. 39. Rashid, Jihad, 147. 40. Naumkin, Militant Islam in Central Asia, 39; Rashid, Jihad, 159–60. 41. Alfred Appei and Peter Skorsch, Report of the EC Rapid Reaction Mechanism Assessment Mission: Central Asia, Border Management (Brussels: European Commission, 2002), 24–27. 42. Makarenko, "Crime, Terror, and the Central Asian Drug Trade;" Naumkin, 40; Fredholm, Uzbekistan and the threat, 6. 43. Naumkin, Militant Islam in Central Asia, 40. 44. David Leheny, "Tokyo Confronts Terror," Policy Review no. 110 (December 2001/January 2002): 37–47. 45. Ahmed Rashid, "They're Only Sleeping—Why Militant Islamicists in Central Asia Aren't Going to Go Away," New Yorker, January 14, 2002. 46. See an account of the episode that is probably highly "embellished" in Greg Child, "Fear of Falling," Outside Magazine, November 2000. Intelligence sources from the region suggest that the climbers did not heroically flee their captors but were rescued. Also see Fredholm, Uzbekistan and the Threat, 7. 47. Rashid, Jihad, 176–178. 48. See for example Alisher Khamidov, Countering the Call: The U.S., Hizb-ut-Tahrir, and Religious Extremism in Central Asia (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Analysis Paper, no. 4, 2003). 49. See Naumkin, Militant Islam in Central Asia, 42. 50. Moya Stolitsa, Bishkek, August 30, 2002. Also see the discussion in Naumkin, 40–43. 51. Naumkin, Militant Islam in Central Asia, 43. 52. Bakhrom Tursunova and Marina Pikulina, Severe Lessons of Batken (Sandhurst: United Kingdom Royal Military Academy, Conflict Studies Research Center, Report no. K28, 1999), 8. 53. Tamara Makarenko, "Traffickers Turn from Balkan Conduit to 'Northern' Route," Jane's Intelligence Review 13, no. 8 (2001): 27–29. 54. Drug Trade in Eurasia Database (Uppsala Silk Road Studies Program), http://www.silkroadstudies.org/drugsdatabase.htm. Accessed 24 August 2005. 55. For more information see http://www.un.org.kg. The project was discontinued in October 1999. "Conference on Drug Traffic Ends," RFE/RL Kyrgyz Report, October 8, 1999. 56. United Nations Drug Control Program, Global Illicit Drugs Trends 2001, 39. (Vienna: United Nations, 2001). 57. Maral Madi, "'Drug Trade in Kyrgyzstan,' Structure, Implications, and Countermeasures," Central Asian Survey 23, no. 3–4 (2004): 249–273. 58. Madi, "Drug Trade," 10. 59. K. Kozhanov and E. Avdeeva, "Ekho Batkena," Vecherny Bishkek, September, 7 1999; A. Otorbayeva, "Batkenskiy Dnevnik," Vecherny Bishkek, September, 3 1999. 60. Mahmadamin Mahmadaminov, The Development of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (Turkestan), (Central Asia-Caucasus Institute: Johns Hopkins University, 2003). 61. Madi, "Drug Trade," 5; Kairat Osmanaliev, Organizovanya Prestupnost' v Kirgizskoi Respublike [Organized Crime in the Kyrgyz Republic] (Bishkek: Mol, 2002). 62. See for example Fredholm, Uzbekistan and the Threat 9–10. 63. Makarenko, "Traffickers Turn from Balkan Conduit"; Madi, "Drug Trade," 7. 64. UN experts question Taliban's sincerity in stopping opium production," Associated Press, May 25, 2001. 65. This argument is developed further in Svante E. Cornell, "Taliban Afghanistan: A True Ideological State?" in The Limits of Culture: Islam and Foreign Policy, ed. Brenda Shaffer, (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2005). 66. Kyodo News Service, "U.N. Official Happy with Taliban Drug Enforcement," February 21, 2001; Barbara Crossette, "Taliban's Ban on Growing Opium Poppies Is Called a Success," New York Times, May 20, 2000. 67. The official is Abdol Hamid Akhondzadeh, director of the Taliban's High Commission for Drug Control. Quoted in Stephen Farrell, "Taliban Poppy Purge Wins Few Allies," Times, May 30, 2001. 68. "Narcotic Flood Threatens to Wash Away Central Asian Stability," Times of Central Asia, December 30, 2000. 69. Personal communication from international drug control officials, Washington DC, May 2001; Tamara Makarenko, "Crime and Terrorism in Central Asia," Jane's Intelligence Review 12, no. 7 (2000): 16–17. 70. Ralf Mutschke, "The Threat Posed by the Convergence of Organized Crime, Drugs Trafficking and Terrorism," Testimony to the Subcommittee on Crime of the Judiciary Committee, U.S. House of Representatives, December 13, 2000. Also testimony to the same hearing of Donnie R. Marshall, Drug Enforcement Administration administrator, at http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/library/congress/2000-h/001213-marshall.htm 71. Bolot Januzakov, quoted in Glenn E. Curtis, "Involvement of Russian Organized Crime Syndicates, Criminal Elements in the Russian Military, and Regional Terrorist Groupings in Narcotics Trafficking in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Chechnya," Washington DC: Library of Congress, Federal Research Division, 2002) 14. 72. Makarenko, "Crime, Terror, and the Central Asian Drug Trade." 73. Ibid. 74. Personal communication from Frederick Starr; also Todd Zeranski, "Al-Qaeda Ally in Central Asia Poses Lingering Threat,"Bloomberg News, March 12, 2002. 75. Mahmadaminov, Development of the Islamic Movement, 8. 76. James Purcell Smith, "The IMU: Alive and Kicking," Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, September 24, 2003. 77. Mike Redman, "Central Asian Militant Group Remains Active in Pakistan," Eurasia Insight, March 24, 2004. 78. "Uzbekistan Seeks Extradition of IMU Militants," The News International, March 24, 2004. 79. Scott Peterson and Peter Boehm, "Uzbek Unrest Shows Islamist Rise," Christian Science Monitor, April, 1 2004; Richard Weitz, "The Bombs of Tashkent," United Press International, April 15, 2004. 80. See analysis in Richard Weitz, "Storm Clouds Over Central Asia: Revival of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)?" Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 27, no. 6 (2004) 505–30. 81. Reuters, "Uzbek Blasts Hit U.S. and Israeli Embassies," July 30, 2004. 82. Yossi Melman, "Israel, U.S. Security Staffs to Meet Uzbek Officials after Suicide Bombings," Ha'aretz, August 2, 2004. 83. Richard Weitz, "Terrorism in Uzbekistan: The IMU Remains Alive but Not Well," Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, May 5, 2004. 84. Alisher Khamidov, Countering the Call, 8–10; International Crisis Group, Radical Islam in Central Asia: Responding to Hizb-ut-Tahrir (Asia Report no. 58, 2003). Brussels: International Crisis Group. 85. Khamidov, Countering the Call, 9. 86. Frederick Starr, U.S. Afghanistan Policy: It's Working (Washington DC: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Policy Paper Series, 2004), http://www.silkroadstudies.org/CACI/Starr_Afghanistan.pdf. Accessed 24 August 2005. 87. For example, "U.S. 'Seizes Al-Qaeda Drugs Ship," BBC News, December 19, 2003. 88. Svante E. Cornell and Regine A. Spector, "Central Asia: More than Islamic Extremists," Washington Quarterly 25, no. 1, (2002): 193–206. Additional informationNotes on contributorsSvante E. CornellDr. Svante E. Cornell is deputy director of the Central Asia–Caucasus Institute, Johns Hopkins University–SAIS. He is also research director of the Silk Road Studies Program, and associate professor in the Department of East European Studies at Uppsala University. He directs the research project conducted jointly by these institutions on Narcotics, Organized Crime, and Security in Eurasia. Research for this article was made possible by generous support from the Office of the Swedish National Drug Policy Coordinator and the Swedish Crisis Management Agency. The author is indebted to Dr. Niklas Swanström, Ms. Tamara Makarenko, and Ms. Maral Madi for their comments and suggestions. For related publications, see http://www.silkroadstudies.org.
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