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The growth dynamics of the Internet and the long wave theory

2005; Elsevier BV; Volume: 72; Issue: 8 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.techfore.2005.06.001

1873-5509

Tessaleno Devezas, Harold A. Linstone, Humberto J.S. Santos,

Economic and Technological Innovation

The phenomenal growth of Internet users is slowing down and we expect to approach a world limit in the next decade of about 14% of the world population. On the basis of a historical analysis this basic innovation is placed in the context of the Kondratieff cycles (K-waves) and the associated Generational-Learning model. A quantitative analysis using logistic growth curves allows us to evaluate its growth dynamics and to assert that the Internet is coming to the end of the 4th K-wave downswing or innovation structural phase and will then embark on the 5th K-wave upswing or consolidation structural phase. The debate about the future of the K-wave pattern is considered, specifically the factors bearing on the continuation or alteration of the pattern and the trajectory.