Japan’s Growing Hard Hedge Against China
2014; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 10; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/14799855.2014.914497
ISSN1555-2764
Autores Tópico(s)Global trade and economics
ResumoAbstractAs China accumulates more power, Japan is often overlooked as being capable of affecting China’s continued trajectory because of material differences and narratives of Japan being a reactive state. Yet, Beijing’s strategic planning cannot ignore Tokyo because Japan has the ability to affect the region’s security environment. Feeling its presence and influence becoming relatively smaller, Tokyo has been increasingly proactive in its effort to expand its strategic space and shape the regional environment in ways conducive to its interests. A review of Japan’s approach to China since 1972 reveals that it has shifted away from its traditional engagement policy toward first a soft hedge, followed by a harder hedge that continues to this day. Today’s mix of partnerships and capabilities enable Japan to complicate China’s freedom of action and frustrate its continued rise. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSFor their insightful comments on earlier drafts, the author would like to thank Mike Green, Christopher Hughes, Justin Nankivell, Jeffrey Reeves, and Alexander Vuving.Notes1. Richard Bush, The Perils of Proximity: China-Japan Security Relations (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2010).2. Anonymous MOFA Official, Personal Interview, September 19, 2012.3. Examples include Jonathan Pollack, “The Transformation of the Asian Security Order,” and Robert Sutter, “China’s Regional Strategy and Why It May Not Be Good for America,” in David Shambaugh, ed., Power Shift: China and Asia’s New Dynamics (Berkeley and Los Angeles, CA: University of California Press, 2005), pp. 329–346 and 289–305, respectively. Related, see Evan S. Medeiros, Keith Crane, Eric Heginbotham, Norman D. Levin, Julia F. 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(London and New York: Routledge Curzon, 2003); Michael Green, “Managing Chinese Power: The View from Japan,” in Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert Ross, eds., Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power (London: Routledge, 1999), pp. 152–175; Christopher Hughes, “Japan’s Response to China’s Rise: Regional Engagement, Global Containment, Dangers of Collision,” International Affairs Vol. 85, No. 4 (2009); Mike Mochizuki, “Japan’s Shifting Strategy Toward the Rise of China,” Journal of Strategic Studies Vol. 30, No. 4–5 (August–October 2007).16. For an overview of options, see Randall Schweller, “Managing the Rise of Great Powers: History and Theory,” in Johnston and Ross, eds., Engaging China, pp. 1–31.17. Stephen Walt, The Origin of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987); Kenneth Waltz, The Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979); and John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001). 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MOFA, “Abe Souri Daijin no Betonamu Houmon (Kaiyou) [Prime Minister Abe’s Vietnam Visit (Overview)],” January 17, 2013. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/kaidan/s_abe2/vti_1301/vietnam.html; and MOFA, “Nichi Betonamu Shunou Kaigi (Kaiyou) [Japan-Vietnam Summit Meeting (Overview)],” December 15, 2013. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/page18_000142.html112. For their first meeting, see MOFA, “Nichi-Shingapo-ru Kaijou Anzen Hoshou Taiwa no Kaisai [Opening of Japan-Singapore Maritime Security Dialogue],” November 1, 2011. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/press/release/23/11/1101_02.html113. MOFA, “Nichi-Shingapo-ru Gaishou Kaidan, Chuushokukai (Kaiyou) [Japan-Singapore Foreign Ministers Meeting and Luncheon, (Overview)],” January 11, 2013. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/kaidan/g_kishida/psba_1301/singapore_2.html114. MOFA, “Nichi-Shingapo-ru Shunou Kaidan (Kaiyou) [Japan-Singapore Summit Meeting (Overview)],” May 22, 2013. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/kaidan/page3_000172.html115. MOFA, “Japan-Indonesia Joint Statement ‘Strategic Partnership for Peaceful and Prosperous Future,’” November 28, 2006. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/indonesia/joint0611.html116. JCG, “Tounan Ajia ni Okeru Kaizoku Taisaku [Policies Regarding Piracy in Southeast Asia].” Available at http://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/info/anti-piracy/cpa_se.htm117. In addition to providing education and training in maritime traffic safety, search and rescue, maritime rescue and disaster prevention measures, and assistance for maritime surveillance systems, since 2008 Japan’s JCG has sent experts to provide advice on maritime safety policies to help strengthen Indonesia’s Maritime Security Coordinating Board. JCG, “Kaijou Hoan Repo-to [Japan Coast Guard Annual Report],” Various Years. Available at http://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp.118. MOFA, “Nichi-Indoneshia Shunou Kaidan (Kaiyou) [Japan-Indonesia Summit Meeting (Overview)],” June 19, 2012. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/kaidan/s_noda/1206_indonesia.html); MOFA, “Nichi-Indoneshia Shunou Kaidan (Kaiyou) [Japan-Indonesia Summit Meeting (Overview)],” September 26, 2012. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/indonesia/visit/1209_sk.html; and MOFA, “Nichi-Indoneshia Shunou Kaidan (Kaiyou) [Japan-Indonesia Summit Meeting (Overview)],” January 18, 2013. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/kaidan/s_abe2/vti_1301/indonesia.html119. MOFA, “The Fifth Japan-Indonesia Ministerial-Level Strategic Dialogue,” October 4, 2013. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/page3e_000106.html; and MOFA, “Japan-Indonesia Summit Meeting,” December 13, 2013. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/page22e_000050.html120. MOFA, “Japan-Thailand Joint Statement on the Strategic Partnership based on the Enduring Bonds of Friendship: Fostering Confidence beyond the Disasters,” March 7, 2012. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/thailand/meeting1203.html121. MOFA, “Nichi-Tai Shunou Kaidan (Kaiyou) [Japan-Thai Summit Meeting (Overview)],” November 6, 2012. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/kaidan/s_noda/asem_9/j_thailand.html122. MOFA, “Abe Souri Daijin no Tai Houmon (Kaiyou) [Prime Minister Abe’s Thailand Visit (Overview)],” January 18, 2013. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/kaidan/s_abe2/vti_1301/thailand.html123. MOFA, “Nichi-Tai Shunou Kaigdan (Kaiyou) [Japan-Thailand Summit Meeting (Overview)],” May 23, 2013. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/kaidan/page6_000068.html124. MOFA, “Joint Statement by the Prime Ministers of the UK and Japan: A Leading Strategic Partnership for Global Prosperity and Security,” April 10, 2012. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/uk/joint1204.html125. UK Government, “Foreign Secretary Signs Groundbreaking Defence and Security Agreements with Japan,” July 4, 2013. Available at http://www.gov.uk/government/news/foreign-secretary-signs-groundbreaking-defence-and-security-agreements-with-japan126. MOFA, “Nichi-Futsu Kyoudou Seimei [Japan-France Joint Declaration],” June 7, 2013. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/000006048.pdf127. Shinzo Abe, “Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond,” Project Syndicate, December 27, 2012. Available at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-strategic-alliance-for-japan-and-india-by-shinzo-abe128. Tokyo played an economic role in the Balkans, helped clear unexploded weapons and contamination from land in Azerbaijan, assisted anti-piracy efforts in the Gulf of Aden, and assisted in Afghanistan’s reconstruction.129. NATO, “Joint Political Declaration Between Japan and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization,” April 13, 2013. Available at http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_99562.htm130. Anders Fogh Rasmusen, “NATO and Japan-Natural Partners,” NATO, April 15, 2013. Available at http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/opinions_99634.htm131. MOFA, “Joint Statement: Vision for the Enhancement of Ja
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