Enrollment Projection Within a Decision-Making Framework
1981; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 52; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/00221546.1981.11780144
ISSN1538-4640
AutoresDavid Armstrong, Charlene Wenckowski Nunley,
Tópico(s)School Choice and Performance
ResumoEnrollment projection is becoming an increasingly serious (and uncertain) business for institutions of higher education [5, 11, 14]. In years of rapid enrollment growth, if an institution achieved an enrollment level that was several percentage points above or below its projections, the effects were not severe, as long as there was some growth to support the budget. At the present time, however, when enrollment growth is stabilizing, when resources are not as readily available, and when inflation is accelerating, the effects of unanticipated enrollment shortfalls can be devastating. Everyone knows that it is impossible to predict the future with certainty; however, by examining several methods for studying the future and combining elements of them, we may be able to reduce the uncertainty. Several authors have recently reviewed the literature concerning enrollment projection techniques [5, 11, 14]. Salley [ 11], in particular, has advocated tying enrollment projections to the budgeting process. The techniques we will describe have implicit connections with policy planning and budgeting; in fact, they are embedded within a policymaking framework. In this respect we have evaluated two principal projection techniques for use at Montgomery College, a large multi-campus community college in the Washington, D.C., suburb of Montgomery County, Maryland. We believe that these techniques and the framework within
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