Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide
2000; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 42; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/00401706.2000.10486019
ISSN1537-2723
Autores Tópico(s)Risk Management in Financial Firms
ResumoINTRODUCTION What Companies Really Want to Do Practical Risk Assessment You Can Do It ABOUT RISK AND UNCERTAINTY Various Views on the Subject - Einstein Was Never Going to Get There Definitions of Risk and Uncertainty Two Values - The Expected Value of Success (EVS) and the Expected Value for the Portfolio (EVP) Risk Assessment and Risk Management What Questions Do I Ask and How Do I Integrate the Information? RISK ASSESSMENT: GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BENEFITS Why Risk Assessment? Common Language Holistic Thinking Awareness Consider Range of Possibilities Establish Probabilities Communication with Customers and the Public Probabilistic Branching Relationships between Variables Linking of Disciplines Checklist - Do Not Take It for Granted Updating Estimates To What Types of Problems Can Risk Assessment Be Applied? RISK ASSESSMENT - A PROCESS Risk Assessment - The Process The Time It Takes to Do It Right, and When to Get Started What Is Typically Done What Is Not Typically Done What to Provide Size Does Not Matter (Not That I Was Worried about That) Stakeholders THE PERCEPTION FROM WITHIN - WHY THIS CAN BE SO DARN HARD TO IMPLEMENT Simple Resistance to Change and Momentum of Old Ways Learning How the Organization Really Works Practitioners Who Have Been Doing It for Years Are Difficult to Change - Newcomers Are Easier to Deal With Not Invented Here Instant Access to Executives - If You Are from Outside, You Are Smarter/Better Turf Wars Experts Who Are Not Management That Has Limited Appreciation and the Deterministic Mindset Coming from the Right Place Establishing Credibility So You Are Not Just Another Voice in the Wilderness Time for Preparation of the Organization - Who Benefits? Ramifications of Implementing a Probabilistic Risk System For This to Be Effective, Every Part of the Company Must Participate Not Just One Time - This Must Be Done Over and Over, Like a Diet CONSISTENCY - THE KEY TO A RISK PROCESS Biggest Bang from Assessing Multiple Opportunities Type Consensus Models Common Measure Risk Assessment Vision Sometimes Better to Be Consistent Than to Be Right Locking the Model Users Will Game the System - The Risk Police Databasing Inputs and Outputs Numbers That Reach Decision Makers Forums Language Risk as a Corporate Function COMMUNICATION Communication - Just One Shot Communication - Why Bother? Know Your Clients Focus on Impact and Mitigation Mitigation Is Not Enough Killing Projects Diplomatically Handle Winners and Losers Communicating the Value of Risk Assessment It Starts at the Top Create Success Story Presentation Web Stuff BUILDING A CONSENSUS MODEL What Is the Question? - Most of the Time and Effort Consensus Model Group Dynamics Write It Down Sort It Out Group Dynamics Again Units Overarching Categories No Such Thing as a Universal Model Difficult to Get People's Time to Go Through All This BUILD A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR DIAGRAM The Contributing Factor Diagram - Getting Started Identify and Define Variables Ask the Right Question Double-Dipping Double-Dipping and Counting the Chickens Fixing the Double-Dipping and Counting the Chickens Problems CFD-Building Example Short List of Hints for Building a CFD EDUCATION - CRITICAL AT THREE LEVELS Education for Management Introductory Class for Risk-Model Builders Advanced Training for Risk-Model Builders Organizational Attitude and Training Centers Time Demands and Organization of the Education Effort Difference between Education and Training RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNOLOGIES Different Approaches Discriminant Function Analysis Bayesian Analysis Decision Trees Factor Analysis Neural Nets The Risk Matrix Risk Registers MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS A Bit of History What Is It Good For? Simple Monte Carlo Example Buckets How Many Random Comparisons Are Enough? Output from Monte Carlo Analysis - The Frequency and Cumulative Frequency Plots Interpreting Cumulative Frequency Plots Combining Monte Carlo Output Curves DECISIONS AND DISTRIBUTIONS Decisions Just What Is a Distribution? Distributions - How to Approach Them Symmetrical Distributions Skewed Distributions Spiked Distributions Flat Distributions Truncated Distributions Discrete Distributions Bimodal Distributions Reading Data from a File Peakedness Triangular Distributions Specific Distribution Types Speaking Distributions Flexibility in the Decision-Making Process CHANCE OF FAILURE Chance of Failure - What Is It? Failure of a Risk Component Chance of Failure that Does Not Affect an Input Distribution Incorporating Chance of Failure in a Plot of Cumulative Frequency Another Reason for Chance of Failure The Inserting Zeroes Work-Around Chance of Failure and Multiple Output Variables A Clear Example of the Impact of Chance of Failure TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS AND DEPENDENCE Introduction to Time-Series Analysis and Dependence Time-Series Analysis - Why? Time-Series Analysis - How? Time-Series Analysis - Results Time-Series Analysis That Is Not Some Things to Consider Dependence - What Is It? Independent and Dependent Variables Degree of Dependence Multiple Dependencies and Circular Dependence Effect of Dependence on Monte Carlo Output Dependence - It Is Ubiquitous RISK-WEIGHTED VALUES AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Introduction to Risk-Weighted Values and Sensitivity Analysis Risk-Weighted Values - Why? Risk-Weighted Values - How? The Net Risk-Weighted Value The Economic Risk-Weighted Resource (ERWR) Value The Expected Value of Success (EVS) and the Expected Value for the Portfolio (EVP) Risk-Weighted Values - The Answer Sensitivity Analysis - Why? Sensitivity Analysis - How? Sensitivity Analysis - Results WHAT COMPANIES REALLY WANT TO DO The Portfolio Effect - Sometimes You Just Do Not Get It Estimate Budgets Estimate Project Value - Two Types: The Expected Value of Success (EVS) and the Expected Value for the Portfolio (EVP) Ask the Right Questions to Determine the Quality of the Information Being Conveyed RISK ASSESSMENT EXAMPLES Introduction Qualitative Model Semi-Quantitative Model Mini Time-Series Model Fate-Transport (Process/Health) Model Decision-Tree Conversion Legal Model Comprehensive Risk Assessment Example EVS/EVP Example
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