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Proportional Representation and Racial Campaigning in South Africa

2004; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 10; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/13537110490467739

1557-2986

Gavin Davis,

Culture, Economy, and Development Studies

Abstract This analysis of election campaigning in South Africa demonstrates that those parties that invoke an exclusive "us and them" message fare better than those that attempt an inclusive "catch-all" strategy. This conclusion has important implications for the debate over the best electoral system for a divided society. It is suggested here that list proportional representation encourages the growth of a centrifugal party system where the most successful parties are those that "outbid" their competitors for the votes of the groups they principally represent. It is quite possible that, over time, South African political parties will "learn" that the most successful means of mobilizing voters is to play on the fears and aspirations associated with their race, thus exacerbating racial tensions. Acknowledgements This research was made possible by a graduate fellowship from the Democracy in Africa Research Unit. The author would like to thank Professor Jeremy Seekings and Associate Professor Bob Mattes for their comments on an earlier version of this paper. Notes 1. Arend Lijphart and Bernard Grofman, "Choosing an Electoral System," in Arend Lijphart and Bernard Grofman (eds.), Choosing an Electoral System–Issues and Alternatives (New York: Praeger, 1984) p. 7; Arend Lijphart, "Choosing an Electoral System for Democratic Elections in South Africa: An Evaluation of the Principal Options" (Cape Town: University of Cape Town Institute for the Study of Public Policy, Critical Choices for South African Society, Occasional Paper, 1987), p. 5; Arend Lijphart, "Electoral Systems, Party Systems and Conflict Management in Segmented Societies," in Robert Schrire (ed.), Critical Choices for South Africa (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990), p. 6; Arend Lijphart, "Constitutional Choices for New Democracies," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 2, No. 1 (1991), p. 72; Andrew Reynolds, "Constitutional Engineering in Southern Africa," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 6, No. 2 (1995), p. 89; Andrew Reynolds, "South Africa: Electoral Systems and Conflict Management," (Paper prepared for Administration and Cost of Elections project, 1997) www.aceproject.org/main/english/es/esy_za.htm [accessed 21 May 2003] and; Andrew Reynolds, Electoral Systems and Democratization in Southern Africa (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999). 2. Reynolds, 1999, p. 97. 3. Reynolds, 1997. 4. Lijphart, 1987, p. 5. 5. Donald Horowitz, A Democratic South Africa? Constitutional Engineering in a Divided Society (Cape Town: Oxford University Press, 1991) p. 173; Kris Deschouwer and Theo Jans, "Electoral Systems and their Effects in Divided Societies," in Bertus de Villiers, Frank Delmartino and Andre Alen (eds.), Institutional Development in Divided Societies (Pretoria: HSRC Publishers, 1998) p. 183. 6. Horowitz, 1991, p. 171. 7. Ibid., p. 173. 8. Ibid., p. 172 9. Andrew Reynolds, "Testing Voting Systems in South Africa–Re-running the 1994 elections with Different Systems,"1999, www.fairvote.org/reports/1995/spot4/reynolds.html [Accessed 25 May 2003]. 10. For the classic statement of this position, see: Clifford Geertz, "The Integrative Revolution- Primordial Sentiments and Civil Politics in the New States" in Clifford Geertz (ed.), Old Societies and New States: The Quest for Modernity in Asia and Africa (New York: Free Press, 1963), p. 109 11. See: Arend Lijphart, Democracy in Plural Societies (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1977), pp. 4–5; Lijpart, 1987, p. 5. 12. This view underpins Lijphart's theory of consociational democracy of which PR is an integral component. The other consociational institutions are segmental autonomy, grand coalition and mutual veto in the executive. However, even without the other consociational measures, Lijphart recommends PR as the best electoral system for a divided society. 13. For a comprehensive exposition of this view and its relevance to South Africa see: Courtney Jung, Then I Was Black- South African Political Identities in Transition (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2000). 14. Note: Horowitz is not an ethnic primordialist although he is often wrongly associated with this position. Horowitz argues that politicians play a key role in creating ethnic conflict and that a shift in context or institutional change may create new identities. See: Horowitz, 1991, pp. 44 and 47; Donald Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1985), p. 291. See also: Pierre du Toit. "The South African Voter and the Racial Census, c 1994," Politeia, Vol. 18, No. 2 (1999) for a similar argument. 15. Brij V. Lal, "Constitutional Engineering in Post-Coup Fiji," in Andrew Reynolds (ed.), The Architecture of Democracy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999), p. 276. 16. Horowitz served as a consultant to the Fijian Constitution Review Commission. 17. Benjamin Reilly, "Electoral Systems for Divided Societies," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 13, No. 2 (2002), p. 163. 18. Brij Lal cited in Benjamin Reilly, "Evaluating the Effect of the Electoral System in Post-Coup Fiji," in Pacific Economic Bulletin, Vol. 16, No. 1 (2001), p. 143. 19. Reilly, "Electoral Systems for Divided Societies," p. 164. 20. Ibid., p. 164; Benjamin Reilly, "Economic Decline and Political Reform in Papua New Guinea," Pacific Economic Bulletin, Vol. 17, No. 2 (2002), p. 139. 21. Quentin L. Quade, "PR and Democratic Statecraft," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 2, No. 3 (1991), pp. 36–7; Guy Lardeyret, "The Problem with PR," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 2, No. 3 (1991), p. 35; and Timothy Sisk, "South Africa Seeks New Ground Rules," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 4, No. (1993), p. 83. 22. Pippa Norris, Electoral Engineering: Voting Rules and Political Behaviour ([1] Cambridge University Press, forthcoming 2003). http://kgshome.harvard.edu/~.pnorris.shorenstein.ksg/Institutions. [Accessed 21 May 2003], Ch. 1, p. 5. 23. Amount of votes required to gain a seat in the legislature. 24. Norris, Ch. 5, p. 1. 25. Ibid., Ch. 5, p. 3. 26. Elections in South Africa have been routinely labelled a racial census. See for instance: R.W. Johnson, "The 1994 Election: Outcome and Analysis," in R.W. Johnson and Lawrence Schlemmer (eds.), Launching Democracy in South Africa–The First Open Election, April 1994 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1996), p. 319. While this conventional wisdom has been rightly questioned by Seekings and Mattes, it is still apparent that race, or at least the historical experience of racial inequality, plays a role in South African electoral politics. See: Jeremy Seekings, "From the Ballot Box to the Bookshelf: Studies of the 1994 South African General Election," Journal of Contemporary African Studies, Vol. 15, No. 2 (1997), p. 297, and Robert Mattes, The Election Book-Judgement and Choice in South Africa's 1994 Election (Cape Town: Idasa, 1995), p. 11. 27. This concept has been adapted from the literature on social capital. See: Robert D. Putnam, "Tuning In, Tuning Out: The Strange Disappearance of Social Capital in America," PS: Political Science and Politics (December 1995). 28. There are four salient race groups in South African politics: blacks (i.e. the African majority consisting of a number of ethnic groups), whites (i.e. English and Afrikaans-speaking European settlers), coloreds (i.e. a mixed-race people with a distinct identity and culture) and Indians (i.e. descendants from laborers brought to Natal in the 19th century). Afrikaners and Zulus are the groups with the strongest sense of an "ethnic" identity. 29. Norris, Ch. 1, p. 5. 30. These newspapers are published across South Africa. The Cape Times and the Cape Argus are Cape Town based, the Sowetan, the Star and the Citizen are published in Gauteng, the Natal Mercury is published in KwaZulu Natal, the Daily Dispatch is published in the Eastern Cape and the Diamond Fields Advertiser is based in the Northern Cape. The Sowetan has a predominantly black readership and the Citizen has a mainly conservative white readership.The other titles have a more diverse readership and occupy the moderate centre politically. 31. The data collected for the content analysis, as well as the coding list and theme breakdown for each party, is available on request from the Data First Resource Unit at the University of Cape Town. See: web.uct.ac.za/depts/cssr/dfrucon.html for contact details. 32. Admittedly, the role of the IFP during the apartheid era was ambiguous, as although the movement was formed with the aim of furthering the interests of Zulus and with the ANC's blessing, it has also been linked to furthering the interests of the apartheid regime. See: Georgina Hamilton and Gerhard Maré, "The Inkatha Freedom Party" in Andrew Reynolds (ed.), Election '94 (Cape Town: David Philip, 1994), p. 76. 33. For estimates of the racial breakdown of party support in 1994 and 1999 see: Andrew Reynolds, "The Results," in Andrew Reynolds (ed.) Election '94 (Cape Town: David Philip); and Andrew Reynolds, "The Results," in Andrew Reynolds (ed.) Election '99 (Cape Town: David Philip). 34. A political party formed prior to the 1999 election by an ex-Homeland leader and an ex-National Party Cabinet Minister. The UDM was perceived as a threat to the ANC in its stronghold, the Eastern Cape. 35. Tom Lodge, "The African National Congress," in Andrew Reynolds (ed.), Election '94 (Cape Town: David Philip, 1994), p. 29. 36. Tom Lodge, "The African National Congress," in Andrew Reynolds (ed.), Election '99 (Cape Town: David Philip, 1994), p. 70. 37. Marks Chabedi, "Whither the Rainbow Nation? The ANC, the Black Middle Class and Changing Perceptions of 'Blackness' in the Post-Apartheid South Africa" (Paper presented to Wits Institute for Social and Economic Research University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2001), p. 2. 38. Thabo Mbeki, Africa—The Time Has Come (Cape Town: Tafelberg, 1998) pp. 71–2. 39. African National Congress, 1999—Year of Mass Mobilisation for the Renewal of the Democratic Mandate (Marshalltown: ANC Department of Information and Publicity, 1999). 40. That is, "One settler, one bullet." 41. Saths Cooper, "The PAC and Azapo," in Andrew Reynolds (ed.), Election '94 (Cape Town: David Philip, 1994), p. 117. 42. Sipho Maseko, "The PAC, Azapo and the UDM," in Andrew Reynolds (ed.), Election '99 (Cape Town: David Philip, 1999), p. 126. 43. Hamilton and Mare, p. 77. 44. Thabo Mbeki, Speech to the Annual General Conference of the IFP, Emandleni, KwaZulu-Natal, 18 July 1998. 45. "ANC, IFP sign KZN Peace Pact," Daily Dispatch, 15 May 1999. 46. Robert Schrire, "The Realities of Opposition in South Africa: Legitimacy, Strategies and Consequences," in Roger Southall (ed.), Opposition and Democracy in South Africa (London: Frank Cass, 2001), p. 31. 47. "Buthelezi loses the will to oppose," The Star, May 27 1999. 48. David Welsh, "The Democratic Party" in Andrew Reynolds (ed.), Election '94 (Cape Town: David Philip, 1994), p. 110. 49. Ibid., p. 115. 50. Tony Leon, "Acceptance speech as DP leader: Charting a new course and keeping faith with values," Durban, 23 October 1994, in Tony Leon, Hope and Fear: Reflections of a Democrat (Johannesburg: Jonathan Ball, 1998). 51. Herman Giliomee, "The National Party's Campaign for a Liberation Election," in Andrew Reynolds (ed.) Election '94 (Cape Town: David Philip, 1994), p. 55. 52. Martin Meredith, South Africa's New Era—The 1994 Election (London: Mandarin, 1994), p. 153. 53. Giliomee, p.56. 54. New National Party, Our Blueprint for Real Democracy (Manifesto of the New National Party, 1999), p. 213. 55. Willie Breytenbach, "The New National Party," in Andrew Reynolds (ed.), Election '99 (Cape Town: David Philip, 1999), p. 123. 56. "Race on the long road to reconciliation," Financial Mail, March 5, 1999. 57. Afrikaans for "black peril." 58. Matt Eldridge, "Now wasn't the time: The ANC's 1994 election in South Africa's Western Cape Province," unpublished MA thesis submitted to the Faculty of Social Science and Humanities of the University of Cape Town, 1997, pp. 139–40. 59. "Daunting odds for depleted Freedom Front," Cape Argus, 12 March 1999. 60. Reynolds, "The Results" (1994), p. 196. 61. Electoral Institute of South Africa (EISA), South African Election Update (Auckland Park: EISA, 1999), p. 342. 62. Reynolds, "The Results" (1999), pp. 183–5. 63. Schrire, p. 31. 64. Phiroshaw Camay and Anne J. Gordon, The People Have Spoken … A Review of the 1999 South African Election (Johannesburg: Co-operative for Research and Education, 1999), p. 170. 65. Robert Mattes, "A list of opposition campaign opportunities lost," Mail and Guardian 21–27 May 1999. 66. See Helen Taylor, Robert Mattes and Cherrel Africa, "Opinion '99 Press Release" (24 May 1999), downloaded from www.idasa.org.za [accessed 20 December 2002]. 67. Ibid. 68. See: Douglas Rae, The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1967). Additional informationNotes on contributorsGAVIN DAVIS Gavin Davis is a Researcher at the Democracy in Africa Research Unit at the Centre for Social Science Research, based at the University of Cape Town. He recently received his M.A. from the University of Cape Town's Democratic Governance programme.