Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Turkey's Energy Strategy and the Middle East: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 12; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/14683849.2011.622511

1743-9663

Ahmet K. Han,

Historical Turkish Studies

Abstract This article examines Turkey's energy relations with the Middle East from a perspective of opportunities and limitations brought about by the structure of Turkey's general energy relations. As Turkish foreign policy and energy strategy become increasingly integrated, Turkish-Middle East energy relations offer a solid test case on the soundness and applicability of not only Turkey's energy strategy, but also for the success of Turkey's foreign policy during the last decade. Analyzing Middle East energy and the structure of Turkey's energy (im)balances, this article goes on to explore Turkey's energy relations with individual Middle East countries and questions the results achieved. While doing so, it also puts and evaluates Turkey's energy strategy within the context of Turkish foreign policy. It argues that as the result of diverse effects and influences of policies observed by Turkish officials, as well as an array of structural factors, the gains of Turkey's energy strategy and its future success remains questionable, while the case of energy strategy provides a telling case on the success of Turkish foreign policy. Notes BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2011, pp. 6, 20. Ibid., pp. 22. See Ahmet K. Han, “Irak Savaşı; Oyunun Adı Petrol mü?,” in Kartalın Kanat Sesleri: ABD Dış Politikasında Yeni Yönelimler ve Dünya, Toktamış Ateş, ed. (Ümit Yayıncılık: Ankara, 2004), p. 399, fn. 697. “FACTBOX—Oil Production Cost Estimates by Country,” Reuters, July 28, 2009 (online) www.reuters.com/article/2009/07/28/oil-cost-factbox-idUSLS12407420090728, (April 23, 2011). Based on the IEA Current Policies scenario, assuming no significant change in the existing energy policies. World Energy Outlook 2010, International Energy Agency, OECD/IEA, Paris, 2010, p. 78. Daniel Yergin, “It's Still the One,” Foreign Affairs, No. 174 (September 1, 2009), pp. 88–95. “Is Turkey Turning its Back on the West?,” The Economist, October 23rd–29th, 2010, p. 13. Energy Policies of IEA Countries: Turkey 2009 Review (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2010), p. 7. World Energy …, pp. 84–5. “Gül: Turkey is a Country of Opportunities,” (online) http://www.tccb.gov.tr/news/397/78158/gul-turkey-is-a-country-of-opportunities.html (June 1, 2011). Petroleum Market Sector Report 2010 (Ankara: EMRA, Petroleum Market Department, 2011), p. 14. 2009 Yılı Doğal Gaz Piyasası Sektör Raporu (Ankara: EMRA, 2010), p. 31. (online) www.epdk.gov.tr/documents/10157/bdd19718-9390-49c1-9681-8e79e53d3f32, (May 19, 2011). Energy Policies…, pp. 52–3. 2009 Yılı Doğal Gaz Piyasası …, p. 59; Elektrik Üretim Sektörü Raporu, EUAŞ, 2011, p. 7; (online) www.enerji.gov.tr/yayinlar_raporlar/Sektor_Raporu_EUAS_2010.pdf (May 19, 2011); Energy Policies …, p. 109. The figures are rounded. See Naki Bakır, “Enerji İthalatı için 40 Milyar Dolar Ödedik,” Dünya, February 2, 2011. Petroleum Market …, p. 15. Azerbaijani figures in 2008 and 2009 were less than 1 percent. Ibid. Elektrik Piyasası Raporu 2010, Enerji Piyasası Denetlem Kurulu, Ankara, 2011, p. xiii. Mitat Çelikpala, Cumhuriyet Enerji, No. 23, May 2011, p. 7. Adapted from 2009 Yılı Doğal Gaz Piyasası …, p. 32. Energy Policies …, p. 124. “Enerji sektöründeki yatırımcıların teşvik sevinci kısa sürdü,” Norm Enerji (online) www.solar-santral.com/menu_detay.asp?id=156 (May 20, 2011). See Üstün, “İran …,” Yanatma, “İran …”. Merve Erdil, “Ukrayna Avrupa'yı korkuttu Türkiye Mavi Akımla Rahatladı,” Hürriyet, January 6, 2009. Sinan Oğan, Rusya ile Ukrayna Anlaştı: Çıkarmamız Gereken Dersler …, TÜRKSAM (January 5, 2006), (online) www.turksam.org/tr/a713.html (May 24, 2011). Natural Gas Market Review 2009 (Paris: OECD/ IEA, 2009), p. 35. Osman Sevaioğlu, Türkiye Elektrik/Enerji Sektörü Raporu 2009, (online) www.tuyeyad.org.tr/yonetici/images/elektrikenerjisektoruraporu.pdf (May 8, 2011). “Yıldız: Nükleer Santral Doğal Gaz Faturasını 2.5 Milyar Dolar Düşürecek,” April 21, 2011, (online) www.ekonomihaberyorum.com/yildiz-nukleer-santral-dogal-gaz-faturasini-2-5-milyar-dolar-dusurecek/ (May 19, 2011). According to the latest MoU ownership of the plant is granted to Russia. “Enerjide Rusya'ya Tam Bağımlılık Korkusu,” Dünya, May 26, 2010. There has been fierce criticism of the process. It is argued that the move was intended to save the Samsun-Adana Ceyhan pipeline from becoming defunct, as would be the case if Russia refused to resource it. See “Samsun—Ceyhan'ın önü açılıyor,” TRTHABER, February 16, 2010, (online) www.trt.net.tr/haber/HaberDetay.aspx?HaberKodu=862915aa-6410-40bb-8975-44885162cf7f (May 18, 2011); Metin Münir, “Nükleer santral Ruslara, Rus Petrolü Çalık'a,” Milliyet, August 6, 2009. The comment belongs to Zeyno Baran.Valentina Pop, “Turkey Plays Double Game on EU Energy Security,” EUOBSERVER, August 7, 2009 (online) euobserver.com/?aid=28530 (January 10, 2010). See “Gül: Turkey ….” Mert Bilgin, “Geopolitics of European Natural Gas Demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East,” Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 11 (2009), pp. 4482–91. Akil, “Turkey's …,” p. 29. Babalı, “Regional …,” p. 150. Ibid. Turkey's Energy Strategy, MFA, ESGY-1, May, 2011. Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı Stratejik Planı 2010–2014, MENR, 2010. Turkey's Energy …, 1; Enerji ve Tabii …, see pp. 18, 42. Enerji ve Tabii …, p. 18. Enerji ve Tabii …, pp. 3–4. Ibid., p. 42. Ibid., p. 39. Ibid., pp. 62, 40. Figures adapted from Table 7, p. 62. Bacık, “Turkey …,” p. 305. Bezen Balamir Coşkun, “Energizing the Middle East: Iran, Turkey and Persian Gulf States,” Turkish Policy Quarterly, Vol. 9, No. 2 (2010), p. 80. Babalı, “Regional …,” p. 164. Mert Bilgin, “Turkey's Energy Strategy: What Difference Does It Make to Become An Energy Transit Corridor, Hub or Center?,” UNISCI Discussion Papers, No. 23 (May 2010), p. 115, 128. Gareth M. Winrow, Problems and Prospects for the “Fourth Corridor”; The Positions and Role of Turkey in Gas Transit to Europe (NG: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 30, 2009). Necdet Pamir, “Bir ‘Asrın Projesi' daha: Nabucco,” Cumhuriyet Enerji, No. 17, August 2009, pp. 9–11. Natural Gas …, p. 109. Elektrik Piyasası …, p. 44. Yelda Ataç, “İran gazı sorunu çözülemiyor, 18 şirketin gazı kesildi,” Hürriyet, 2006; Gülçin Üstün, “İran gazı kesti, BOTAŞ Rus gazına güveniyor,” Milliyet, January 4, 2007; “İran doğalgazı kesti,” Hürriyet, January 7, 2008; Servet Yanatma,“İran gazı yine kesti, sıkıntı beklenmiyor,” Zaman, February 9, 2008; “İran gazı kesti,” Eko Norm, October 17, 2010 (online) www.ekonorm.com/haber/ekonomi/153933/iran_gazi_kesti/ (October 18, 2010). Turkish officials even complained about Iranian consumption habits. Üstün, “İran …”. Bilgin (2010), p. 122. Even though the price of Iranian gas is a trade secret industry insiders are able to confirm this information to the author on several occasions. “İran gazı ABD gezisi yüzünden mi kesti?,” January 9, 2008, (online) www.haber3.com/iran-gazi-abd-gezisi-yuzunden-mi-kesti-324487h.htm (May 14, 2011); Seçkin Ürey, “İran indirim pazarlığı başladığı gün gazı kesti,” Milliyet, December 21, 2003. Olcay Aydilek, “Ankara'nın iki yıllık doğal gazı havaya uçtu,” HT Ekonomi, April 15, 2011. According to the contract, Turkey can use the now pre-paid gas within the next five years, says Minister Yıldız. See “İran'dan ‘al ya da öde’ cezası,” EnerjiVadisi, August 11, 2010, (online) www.enerjivadisi.com/n.php?n=2dddaa37-2010_08_11 (1 Haziran 2011). Arzu Celalifer Ekinci, İran Türkiye Enerji İşbirliği, USAK Bilgi Notu, USAK, Kasım 2008, pp. 4–14 and Kemal İnat, “Turkey's Recent Iran Policy: Mutual Dependence for Peace and Development,” Ortadoğu Analiz, Vol. 1, No. 10 (2009), pp. 14–15. “TPAO İran'dan Vazgeçti,” Cumhuriyet, August 21, 2010. Gal Luft, “The Pipeline Paradox,” Foreign Policy, April 12, 2011 (online) www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/12/the_pipeline_paradox?page=0,1 (April 15, 2011). “Envoy: Nabucco Can't Be Implemented without Iran's Participation,” Fars News Agency, March 2, 2009 (online) english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8711151701 (May 15, 2011). İnat (2009), pp. 11–12. “İran gazı tartışması sertleşiyor,” Milliyet, July 18, 2007. See for example Gülnur Aybet, “Behind the Rhetoric: Why Turkey Wants to Keep Iran Engaged,” Sunday's Zaman, October 29, 2009. “İran gazı tartışması ….” Murat Yetkin, “Davutoğlu. İran'a yaptırıma tabii uyacağız,” Radikal, July 15, 2010. “Egypt—Turkey natural Gas Pipeline Project,” International Projects, BOTAS (online) www.botas.gov.tr/index.asp (June 3, 2011). Bacık, “Turkey …,” p. 299. Cumali Önal, “Mısır-Türkiye gaz hattı bölgeye barış getirecek,” Zaman, March 20, 2006. Curiously, Russian companies are involved in the construction process, and in Gazprom's case as a partner. “Gazprom may join the Arabian Gas Pipeline,” Pipelines International, May 12, 2010 (online) pipelinesinternational.com/news/gazprom_may_join_arabian_gas_pipeline/040698/# (June 1, 2011). Ahmet Cemal Ertürk, Doğu Akdeniz’de MEB Paylaşımı: Güney Kıbrıs-İsrail Örneği, Bilgesam, May 10, 2011. “Karamehmet'in Petrol Planları,” Global Enerji, No. 38 (October 2007), pp. 46–9. “Aksa'dan Suriye'ye elektrik ihracı,” June 21, 2011, (online) www.aksaenerji.com.tr/tr/NewsListDetail.aspx?Id=847 (June 28, 2011). “AKSA Enerji: Suriye'den paramızı sorunsuz aldık,” July 13, 2011, (online) enerjienstitusu.com/2011/07/13/aksa-enerji-suriyeden-paramizi-sorunsuz-aldik/ (July 14, 2011). “Erdoğan: Biz Bize Yeteriz,” Gazete Vatan, January 12, 2011. Enis Berberoğlu, “İslam dünyası kendine yeter ama AB'ye alternatif değil,” Hürriyet, January 12, 2011. Hasan Kanbolat, “Qatar–Iraq–Turkey–Europe Natural Gas Pipeline: From Dreams to Reality,” Today's Zaman, January 25, 2011; and Ekinci argues the “willingness of Iran when compared to Middle Eastern countries” as an important cause for Iranian—Turkish cooperation. See Ekinci (2008), p. 13. “Qatar to invest $14 billion in LNG fleet,” Qatar—German—Business—Forum, Nr. 5—September/October 2005 C 46321, p. 8. BP Statistical …, p. 28. On these and other trends that could create a “golden age of gas” see IEA World Energy Outlook 2011—Are We Entering A Golden Age of Gas, OECD/ IEA, Paris, 2011. Ibid., pp. 22–3. Stephanie Clancy, “Pipeline Projects in the Middle East” Pipelines International, March 2010, (online) pipelinesinternational.com/news/pipeline_projects_in_the_middle_east/040183/ (May 4, 2011). Lenore G. Martin, “Turkey's Middle East Foreign Policy,” in The Future of Turkish Foreign Policy, Lenore G. Martin and Dimitris Keridis, eds. (Cambridge and London: MIT Press, 2004), p. 168. According to then MENR Hilmi Güler, Turkey at the time was supplying 600 million kWh electricity to the region. Starting from 2003, KARTET, a privately owned company, has been supplying electricity from its Silopi facilities by using Iraqi fuel-oil. Ünsal Ereke, “Şalteri indiririz, haber bekliyoruz,” Milliyet, October 24, 2007 “Kuzey Irak'a elektrik ihracatı kısıtlandı,” CNN Turk, January 19, 2008, (online) www.cnnturk.com/2008/ekonomi/genel/01/19/kuzey.iraka.elektrik.ihracati.kisitlandi/421002.0/index.html (May 19, 2011). The KARTET operation is called “Power of Friendship” and it operates two “powerships” of 344 MW anchored at Basra. “Dünyanın en büyük ‘Enerji Gemisi' Irak'a doğru yola çıktı,” Hürriyet, August 13, 2010. “Kuzey Irak'ın Şalteri Türkiye'nin Elinde,” Star Gazetesi, December 17, 2007. Ümit Enginsoy, “Türk şirketleri Irak'ta petrol ihalelerini aldı,” NTV-MSNBC, March 9, 2004 (online) arsiv.ntvmsnbc.com/news/260632.asp?0m=n11o (May 8, 2011). Bilgin (2010), p. 121. The capacity is equivalent to roughly 1.42 million barrels per annum, a capacity that has never been utilized in full. Only 1.7 percent of the world's proven reserves. BP Statistical …, p. 20. Taha Akyol, “Nabucco'ya 6 imza,” Milliyet, June 9, 2011. Gila Benmayor, “Nabucco'ya ‘gazsız’ bir imza daha,” Hürriyet, June 9, 2011. Enerji ve Tabii …, p. 38. See also Babalı, “Regional …,” pp. 153–4. Emine Kart, “Iraq oil list disappoints Turks,” Today's Zaman, April 18, 2008. Presumably the decision came as a reaction to “hot pursuit” operations against the PKK carried out by the Turkish armed forces in March 2008. “TPAO, Çinli dev ile Irak'ta petrol arayacak,” Hürriyet, May 18, 2010; “Expectations: Maisan will become the second biggest oil producer in Iraq,” Al–Kindi Society of Engineers, May 20, 2010, (online) www.kindi.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=273:expectations-maisan-will-become-the-second-biggest-oil-producer-in-iraq&catid=3:news&Itemid=27 (May 3, 2011); “Türkiye'nin Kuzey Irak'taki Yatırımları,” Patron Türk, February 3, 2010, (online) www.patronturk.com/turkiye'nin-kuzey-irak'taki-yatirimlari (May 19, 2011). Uğur Ergan, “Mansuriye'nin 171 milyar metreküplük doğalgaz rezervi TPAO'ya emanet,” Hürriyet, June 6, 2011. “TPIC Bags $318 Rumaila Gig,” Upstreamonline.com, March 1, 2010, (online) www.upstreamonline.com/live/article207681.ece (May 5, 2011). “Köksal: Türkiye'de Petrol Yok,” Hürriyet, April 27, 2010 (online) www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/14543164.asp (accessed May 4, 2011). Burak Mavi, “Petrolde İlk 30′a Gireceğiz” (Mayıs: CNBC-E Business, 2010), pp. 46–56. “Aranan Gaz Bulundu,” HT Ekonomi, June 3, 2010. BP Statistical …, p. 6, 20. Bacık, “Turkey …,” 2006, p. 293. Winrow, Problems …, p. 2. Ibid., p. 115. Nacdet Pamir, “Türkiye-ABD İlişkilerinin Enerji Boyutu,” December 26, 2009 (online) www.enerjienergy.com/artikel.php?artikel_id=8 (May 14, 2011); “BOTAŞ Genel Müdürü Saltuk Düzyol: TPAO ile BOTAS Birleştirilmeli,” Global Enerji, Issue 38, October 2007, pp. 16–20. Bilgin (2010), p. 114.