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Islamist moderation in perspective: comparative analysis of the moderation of Islamist and Western communist parties

2012; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 20; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/13510347.2012.696612

1743-890X

Süveyda Karakaya, Abdülkadir Yıldırım,

Political Conflict and Governance

AbstractWhat forms do Islamist moderation take, and which factors underlie each form of moderation? Although a prevalent question in recent years, less is known about the causes and forms of Islamist moderation in a systematic fashion. By building on the findings of Communist moderation literature, we introduce a two-stage framework to explain variation in Islamist party moderation over time and across space: tactical vs. ideological moderation. Tactical moderation refers to the kind of moderation where radical parties make a decision on whether to accept electoral democracy as a means to achieve ideological goals without compromising their platforms. Structural factors such as political liberalization, international factors and state repression are causes of tactical moderation. Ideological moderation pertains to shifts in a platform from a radical niche to more moderate lines to respond to societal changes (economic liberalization, economic growth, electoral loss and changing voter preferences) to gain greater popular support. Empirically, we analyse the Italian Communist Party and the Party for Justice and Development in Morocco in a comparative perspective. In providing evidence through structured comparisons and field interviews, we hope to advance a more universal, generalizable theory of radical party moderation.Keywords: moderationParty for Justice and DevelopmentIslamist partiesradical partiesanti-system partiescommunist parties AcknowledgementsThe authors thank the following individuals for their comments on earlier drafts of the manuscript: Dilshod Achilov, Ian Down, Mac Goodwin, Ramazan Kilinc, Mirjam Kunkler, Bonnie Meguid, and Jeremy Menchik, Earlier versions of the manuscript were presented at the 2011 annual conferences of the MPSA and the APSA. All errors remain our own.Notes on contributorsSuveyda Karakaya is a PhD candidate in political science at the University of Tennessee. Her research interests include political parties, political behaviour, European Union politics, and Islam and politics.A. Kadir Yildirim is an assistant professor of political science at Furman University. His main research interests centre around economic liberalization, democratization, political Islam, and politics of the Middle East. His current research projects address party development in the Middle East, religious actors' role in democratization, and Islamist moderation.Notes1. Schwedler, 'Democratization, Inclusion and the Moderation of Islamist Parties'.2. 'Don't Hang the Barber', Economist, July 24, 2003; Khadija Finan, 'Western Sahara Impasse', Le Monde Diplomatique, January 11, 2006; 'Islamists Slip in Moroccan Elections', Christian Science Monitor, September 10, 2007; 'Morocco: Islamists Divided, Jihadists Contained, Monarchy Secure', Stratfor Report, September 7, 2007.3. 'Jordan Questions Dozens Over Amman Bombings', ABC News Online, November 12, 2005. http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200511/s1505087.htm (accessed January 30, 2011); Clark, 'The Conditions of Islamist Moderation'.4. 'Yemen Pursuing Terror Its Own Way; Tactics, Results Vary, But Target Is Al Qaeda', The Washington Post, October 17, 2002.5. 'Algerian Leader Eyes Poll Victory', BBC, April 7, 2004. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3607603.stm (accessed January 30, 2011).6. 'Turkey: Post-Islamists in Power', Le Monde Diplomatique, March 6, 2003.7. Joshua Stacher and Samer Shehata, 'Hear Out Muslim Brotherhood', Boston Globe, March 25, 2007; 'Egypt's Banned Muslim Brotherhood Wins 29 More Seats in Runoff Polls', USA Today, November 27, 2005; Matthew Kaminski, 'Among the Muslim Brothers: The Contradictory Faces of Political Islam in Post-Mubarak Egypt', The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2011.8. Mahan Abedin, 'Islamist Leader Returns From Exile – An Interview with Rashid Al-Ghannoushi', Le Monde Diplomatique, January 31, 2011; Gearon, 'The "Real Deal" Revolutions', 18–21; Olivier Roy, 'The Tunisian Revolt: Where Have All the Islamists Gone?', Christian Science Monitor, January 21, 2011.9. 'Syria Muslim Brotherhood Leader Urges West to Boycott Assad', Lebanon Wire, March 18, 2006.10. 'Hamas Represents Islamic "Current of Moderation"', Al-Arabiya TV, September 9, 2007.11. Sartori, 'Concept Misinformation in Political Science'; Goertz, Social Science Concepts.12. Moderation can also be a double-edged sword; hence, parties need to maintain a delicate balance between actual moderation and retaining ideological purity of the party to prevent credibility problems and not to alienate core supporters (D'Alimonte, 'Party Behavior in a Polarized System'; Sánchez-Cuenca, 'Party Moderation and Politicians' Ideological Rigidity'; Kitschelt 1994, as cited in Adams et al., 'Are Niche Parties Fundamentally Different From Mainstream Parties?').13. The term 'tactical moderation' is previously used in different contexts such as the Spanish Communist Party, PSOE (Share, 'Two Transitions'), and the British Labour Party (Barker, 'Anatomy of Reformism'). The use of the term for Islamist groups did not occur until very recently (Matesan, 'The Effects of Political Integration').14. Share, 'From Policy Seeking to Office Seeking'; Sánchez-Cuenca, 'Party Moderation and Politicians' Ideological Rigidity'.15. Sartori, Parties and Party Systems, 133.16. Keren, 'Political Perfectionism and the "Anti-System" Party'; Capoccia, 'Anti-System Parties: A Conceptual Reassessment'. Our use of the term 'anti-system' entails a sustained opposition to the current regime in its entirety. In democracies, anti-system would mean being fundamentally opposed to democracy. In non-democratic regimes, it entails opposition to electoral politics and challenging the regime's legitimacy.17. King et al., Designing Social Inquiry.18. Brooks, 'Liberalization and Militancy in the Arab World'; Brumberg, 'Islamists and the Politics of Consensus'; Willis, 'Morocco's Islamists and the Legislative Elections of 2002'; Schwedler, Faith in Moderation; Schwedler, 'Democratization, Inclusion and the Moderation of Islamist Parties'; and Schwedler, 'Can Islamists Become Moderates?'; Wickham, 'The Path to Moderation'; Tezcur, 'The Moderation Theory Revisited'.19. Tilly, From Mobilization to Revolution; Kitschelt, 'Political Opportunity Structures and Political Protest'; Przeworski and Sprague, Paper Stones; Tarrow, Power in Movement; Bermeo, 'Myths of Moderation'.20. Schwedler, 'Can Islamists Become Moderates?'.21. Wickham, 'The Path to Moderation'.22. Cavatorta, 'Civil Society, Islamism and Democratisation'; and Yilmaz, 'Muslim Democrats in Turkey and Egypt'.23. El-Ghobashy, 'The Metamorphosis of the Egyptian Muslim Brothers'; McFaul and Wittes, 'Morocco's Elections'; Hovdenak, 'Hamas in Transition'.24. Clark, 'The Conditions of Islamist Moderation', 542.25. Robinson, 'Can Islamists Be Democrats?'.26. Wegner and Pellicer, 'Islamist Moderation without Democratization'.27. Kalyvas, 'Commitment Problems in Emerging Democracies'.28. Mecham, 'From the Ashes of Virtue, A Promise of Light'; Ozbudun, 'From Political Islam to Conservative Democracy'; Somer, 'Moderate Islam and Secularist Opposition in Turkey'; Cizre Secular and Islamic Politics in Turkey.29. Moore, Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy.30. Demiralp, 'The Rise of Islamist Entrepreneurs'; Gülalp, 'Globalization and Political Islam'; Gumuscu, 'Class, Status, and Party'; Langohr, 'An Exit from Arab Autocracy'; Lipset, 'The Social Requisites of Democracy Revisited'; Nasr, 'The Rise of Muslim Democracy'; Nasr, The Rise of Islamic Capitalism; Salame Democracy Without Democrats?; Yavuz, Secularism and Muslim Democracy in Turkey; Zakaria, 'Islam, Democracy, and Constitutional Liberalism'.31. Nasr, 'The Rise of Muslim Democracy'; Nasr, The Rise of Islamic Capitalism.32. Zakaria, 'Islam, Democracy, and Constitutional Liberalism', 16.33. Robinson, 'Can Islamists Be Democrats?'.34. El-Ghobashy, 'The Metamorphosis of the Egyptian Muslim Brothers'.35. Gray, 'From Gramsci to Togliatti'; Pasquino, 'From Togliatti to the Compromesso Storico'; Amyot, The Italian Communist Party; Share, 'Dilemmas of Social Democracy in 1980s'; Fennema and Waller, Communist Parties in Western Europe; Ishiyama, 'Communist Parties in Transition'; Botella, Montero and Gunther, Democracy in Modern Spain.36. Amyot, The Italian Communist Party; Ishiyama, 'Communist Parties in Transition'; Share, 'Dilemmas of Social Democracy in 1980s'; Share, 'From Policy Seeking to Office Seeking'; D'Alimonte, 'Party Behavior in a Polarized System'; Sánchez-Cuenca, 'The Logic of Party Moderation'; Greene, 'Opposition Party Strategy and Spatial Competition in Dominant Party Regimes'; Berman, 'Taming Extremist Parties: Lessons from Europe'; Somer-Topcu, 'Timely Decisions'. On ideological moderation, the literature suggests additional explanations. The most prominent among such explanations is Downs' median voter theorem, arguing that once parties start playing the electoral game, they are forced to appeal to the plurality of voters, which in turn leads to broad, centrist platforms (Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy). Challenging a crucial assumption in the median voter theorem, others argued that ideological change in political parties reflects shifts in voter preferences (Stimson et al., 'Dynamic Representation'; Adams et al., 'Are Niche Parties Fundamentally Different From Mainstream Parties?').37. Gumuscu, 'Class, Status, and Party'.38. Schwedler, 'Can Islamists Become Moderates?'. We thank an anonymous reviewer for bringing this point to our attention.39. Sánchez-Cuenca, 'Party Moderation and Politicians' Ideological Rigidity'.40. Charlton, 'Deradicalization and the French Communist Party'; Ishiyama, 'Communist Parties in Transition'; Tucker, 'The Deradicalization of Marxist Movements'.41. Berman, 'Taming Extremist Parties: Lessons from Europe'.42. Ishiyama, 'Communist Parties in Transition'; Share, 'From Policy Seeking to Office Seeking'.43. Berman, 'Taming Extremist Parties: Lessons from Europe'; Putnam, 'Interdependence and the Italian Communists'; Share, 'Dilemmas of Social Democracy in 1980s'.44. Amyot, The Italian Communist Party; Sánchez-Cuenca, 'The Logic of Party Moderation'.45. Tucker, 'The Deradicalization of Marxist Movements'.46. Charlton, 'Deradicalization and the French Communist Party'.47. Sánchez-Cuenca, 'Party Moderation and Politicians' Ideological Rigidity'.48. Ibid.49. Berman, 'Taming Extremist Parties: Lessons from Europe'.50. Pasquino, 'From Togliatti to the Compromesso Storico'.51. Amyot, The Italian Communist Party.52. Putnam, 'Interdependence and the Italian Communists'.53. Amyot, The Italian Communist Party.54. Ibid., 41.55. Gray, 'From Gramsci to Togliatti'; Samuels, Machiavelli's Children.56. Samuels, Machiavelli's Children.57. Amyot, The Italian Communist Party; Gray, 'From Gramsci to Togliatti'; Pasquino, 'From Togliatti to the Compromesso Storico'; Samuels, Machiavelli's Children.58. Gray, 'From Gramsci to Togliatti'.59. Pasquino, 'From Togliatti to the Compromesso Storico'.60. Samuels, Machiavelli's Children, 303.61. Berman, 'Taming Extremist Parties: Lessons from Europe'.62. Spieker, 'How the Eurocommunists Interpret Democracy'.63. Gentili and Panebianco, 'The PCI and International Relations, 1945–1975'; Fennema and Waller, Communist Parties in Western Europe.64. Amyot, The Italian Communist Party; Devlin, 'Eurocommunism: Between East and West'.65. Sánchez-Cuenca, 'The Logic of Party Moderation'; Spieker, 'How the Eurocommunists Interpret Democracy'.66. Spieker, 'How the Eurocommunists Interpret Democracy', 442–3.67. Pasquino, 'From Togliatti to the Compromesso Storico'.68. Gentili and Panebianco, 'The PCI and International Relations, 1945–1975'.69. Pasquino, 'From Togliatti to the Compromesso Storico', 91.70. Gray, 'From Gramsci to Togliatti'.71. Samuels, Machiavelli's Children.72. Sánchez-Cuenca, 'The Logic of Party Moderation', 21.73. Samuels, Machiavelli's Children.74. Putnam, 'Interdependence and the Italian Communists'.75. D'Alimonte, 'Party Behavior in a Polarized System'; Gentili and Panebianco, 'The PCI and International Relations, 1945–1975'. Another concern for the PCI was the possibility of a fascist union between the centre and the right as exemplified by the 1973 military coup in Chile, where a left-wing government tried to rule out Christian Democrats and was crushed by the military (Pasquino, 'From Togliatti to the Compromesso Storico'; Amyot, The Italian Communist Party; Sassoon, The Strategy of the Italian Communist Party). By accepting capitalism and democracy, the PCI would be able to avoid the worst outcome.76. Amyot, The Italian Communist Party.77. Samuels, Machiavelli's Children.78. On market regulation, the PCI moved from over 6 points to almost 0; on nationalization, the party moved from 3 to 0; on planned economy, from 9 to 2. The points indicate the number of mentions in party programmes; greater figures imply more mentions and greater significance. The data are from the Manifesto Project Database.79. Amyot, The Italian Communist Party.80. Sassoon, The Strategy of the Italian Communist Party, 228–9.81. Ruscoe, On the Threshold of Government, 114.82. Sassoon, The Strategy of the Italian Communist Party.83. Daniels, 'The Italian Communist Party'.84. Weinberg, The Transformation of Italian Communism, 49.85. Daniels, 'The Italian Communist Party'.86. Weinberg, The Transformation of Italian Communism.87. Sánchez-Cuenca, 'The Logic of Party Moderation', 23.88. Tlaidi interview, 2009; Shahin, Political Ascent, 182.89. Wegner and Pellicer, 'Islamist Moderation without Democratization', 159. Despite allegations, Muti' and the group rejected any part in the violence (Burgat and Dowell, The Islamic Movement in North Africa, 172). Even though the group was formally outlawed in 1975, members continued its activities for years (Shahin, Political Ascent, 188).90. Shahin puts the official establishment of the association in 1983 (Shahin, Political Ascent, 189).91. Tlaidi interview, 2009.92. Wegner and Pellicer, 'Islamist Moderation without Democratization', 160.93. Ibid.94. Ibid.95. Tlaidi interview, 2009.96. Shahin, Political Ascent, 191.97. El-Khalfi interview, 2009.98. These parties included the Istiqlal Party, National Union of Popular Forces (UNFP) and Democratic Independence Party (PDI).99. Desrues and Moyano, 'Social Change and Political Transition in Morocco', 30.100. Willis, 'Morocco's Islamists and the Legislative Elections of 2002', 55; Desrues and Moyano, 'Social Change and Political Transition in Morocco', 30. Although the movement competed in the local elections in 1997 as independents and won 100 seats in city councils nationwide, the 1997 parliamentary elections are generally accepted as the group's first political participation.101. A Muslim democratic platform is identified by emphasis on pluralist democracy, liberal economy and Muslim values (Nasr, 'The Rise of Muslim Democracy'; Yavuz, Secularism and Muslim Democracy in Turkey; Gumuscu, 'Class, Status, and Party'). The best example of such parties is the Turkish AKP.102. McFaul and Wittes, 'Morocco's Elections'.103. Tlaidi interview, 2009.104. El-Khalfi interview, 2009.105. Uthmani interview, 2009.106. El-Ouafi interview, 2009.107. Cohen, Searching for a Different Future; Cammett, Globalization and Business Politics in North Africa.108. El-Khalfi and Uthmani interviews, 2009.109. Amara interview, 2009.110. El-Khalfi, Karbal and Uthmani interviews, 2009.111. PJD Party Program 2007, 1–3.112. Amara interview, 2009.113. El-Khalfi interview, 2009. Former PJD leader, Uthmani, also made a similar statement when asked about the PJD's Islamic reference: 'We would compare it to Christian Democratic parties in Europe that base their platforms upon the principles of Christian faith although their platforms may be civil in nature. These parties make decisions according to civil political realities, but viewed through a Christian lens. It is the same with the PJD, which is a civil, Moroccan nationalist political party.' Quoted in Arab Reform Bulletin 3, no. 10 (December 2005).114. For an excellent review of Islamism and identity politics in the Arab world, see Ismail, 'Being Muslim: Islam, Islamism and Identity Politics'.115. Amara and El-Ouafi interviews, 2009.116. Daoudi interview, 2009.117. Bouanou interview, 2009.118. El-Khalfi interview, 2009. Other PJD officials also confirmed El-Khalfi's perspective (Karbal, El-Ouafi and Bouanou interviews, 2009).119. Mainwaring and Scully, Christian Democracy in Latin America.120. Desrues and Moyano, 'Social Change and Political Transition in Morocco'.121. In 2007, the Moroccan daily Al-Tajdid (part of the MUR network) reported on movement-party separation, identified the functions of the PJD and the MUR as distinct organizations, including various issues of disagreement between the two such as the caliphate. 'Al-Tamayuz Bayna al-Haraka wal-Hizb Masar La Raja'ah Fihi' [The Separation between the Movement and the Party Now Irreversible], Al-Tajdid, August 28–29, 2007.122. El-Khalfi interview, 2009.123. Wegner and Pellicer, 'Islamist Moderation without Democratization'.