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Five Myths about India's Nuclear Posture

2013; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 36; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/0163660x.2013.825555

1530-9177

Vipin Narang,

Global Peace and Security Dynamics

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Acknowledgments He would like to thank Christopher Clary, Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Frank Klotz, George Perkovich, and Scott Sagan for excellent comments on earlier drafts and presentations. Notes 1. See Ashley Tellis, India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal (Santa Monica: RAND, 2001), http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2008/MR1127part1.pdf; George Perkovich, India's Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1999); Rajesh Basrur, Minimum Deterrence and India's Nuclear Security (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2006); Bharat Karnad, India's Nuclear Policy (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2008). 2. Prime Minister's Office of India, "Cabinet Committee on Security Reviews Progress in Operationalizing India's Nuclear Doctrine," press release, January 4, 2003, http://pib.nic.in/archieve/lreleng/lyr2003/rjan2003/04012003/r040120033.html. 3. See, for example, Tellis, p. 367. 4. Prime Minister's Office of India, "Cabinet Committee on Security Reviews." 5. Prime Minister's Office of India, "Cabinet Committee on Security Reviews." 6. See "Agni III Ready for Induction: Antony," Times of India, August 9, 2010, http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-08-09/india/28302258_1_agni-iii-agni-i-and-agni-ii-km-range. 7. Dr. VK Saraswat quoted in T.S. Subramanian and Y. Mallikarjun, "'Prahaar' Missile Successfully Test-fired," The Hindu, July 21, 2011, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/prahaar-missile-successfully-testfired/article2279166.ece. 8. DRDO, Ministry of Defense, "'Prahaar'—New Surface to Surface Tactical Missile Successfully Launched," press release, July 21, 2011, http://drdo.gov.in/drdo/English/dpi/press_release/PressReleasePraharnew.pdf. 9. Debabrata Mohanty, "India Successfully Test Fires Surface-to-Surface Prahaar Missile," Indian Express, July 21, 2011, http://www.indianexpress.com/news/india-successfully-test-fires-surfacetosurface-prahar-missile/820344. 10. Dr W. Selvamurthy quoted in T.S. Subramanian and Y. Mallikarjun, "India Successfully Test Fires Shourya Missile," The Hindu, September 24, 2011, http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/article2482010.ece. 11. Vladimir Radyuhin, "BrahMos Gains Sub-Strategic Super Weapon Capability," The Hindu, October 13, 2012, http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/brahmos-gains-substrategic-super-weapon-capability/article3994856.ece. 12. Subramanian and Mallikarjun, "India Successfully Test Fires Shourya Missile." 13. See V.K. Saraswat quoted in "World's Best Interceptor Missile by 2011: DRDO," The Hindustan Times, March 10, 2009. 14. See V.K. Saraswat quoted in "Agni-V may be Equipped with Multiple Warheads: DRDO Chief," Economic Times, May 10, 2012, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-05-10/news/31655855_1_agni-v-range-missile-medium-range. 15. Hermann Kahn, On Thermonuclear War, (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1960), p. 36. 16. See Vipin Narang and Christopher Clary, "Capability without Strategy", Indian Express, May 22, 2012, http://www.indianexpress.com/news/capability-without-strategy/952086/0. 17. See Vipin Narang, "Indian Nuclear Posture: Confusing Signals from DRDO," IDSA Comment, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, September 26, 2011, http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/IndianNuclearPostureConfusingSignalsfromDRDO_vnarang_260911. 18. Tellis, p. 367. 19. Verghese Koithara, Managing India's Nuclear Forces (Washington, DC: Brookings Press, 2012), p. 104. 20. Rajat Pandit, "Agni-V to be Tested Twice this Year, Could be Inducted by 2015," Times of India, June 29, 2013, http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-06-29/india/40271026_1_agni-iv-agni-vi-missile-defence. 21. Shiv Aroor, "New Chief of India's Military Research Complex Reveals Brave New Mandate," India Today, July 3, 2013, http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/indias-nuclear-counterstrike-response-time-to-be-in-minutes-drdo-chief/1/286691.html. Emphasis added. 22. For substantially more details, see Vipin Narang, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, forthcoming 2014). 23. See Shyam Saran, "Is India's Nuclear Deterrent Credible?" Lecture at Subbu Forum Society for Policy Studies, India Habitat Centre, New Delhi India, April 24, 2013, p. 11, http://krepon.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2013/05/Final-Is-Indias-Nuclear-Deterrent-Credible-rev1-2-1-3.pdf. 24. Author interviews in New Delhi. 25. Prime Minister's Office of India, "Cabinet Committee on Security Reviews." 26. See Shivshankar Menon, "The Role of Force in Strategic Affairs," speech to National Defence College, India Blooms News Service, October 21, 2010, http://indiablooms.com/NewsDetailsPage/2010/newsDetails211010n.php. Though the formulation in this speech sparked some controversy, it was later revealed to be a misformulation and India still claims to have an absolute no first use Policy. See Vipin Narang, "Did India Change its Nuclear Doctrine? Much Ado about Nothing," IDSA Comment, March 1, 2011, http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/DidIndiaChangeitsNuclearDoctrine_vnarang_010311. 27. See Scott D. Sagan, "The Evolution of Pakistani and Indian Nuclear Doctrine," in Scott D. Sagan, ed., Inside Nuclear South Asia (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2009), pp. 219–264. 28. Prime Minister's Office of India, "Cabinet Committee on Security Reviews." 29. Scott Sagan, "The Commitment Trap," International Security 24, no. 4 (Spring 2000), pg. 85–115, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20284/sagan_is_spr00.pdf. 30. Barry R. Posen, Inadvertent Escalation: Conventional War and Nuclear Risks (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992). 31. Y. Mallikarjun, "DRDO to Develop Futuristic Weapons," The Hindu, December 28, 2012, http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/drdo-to-develop-futuristic-weapons/article4247410.ece. 32. See T.S. Subramanian, "Agni-VI All Set to Take Shape," The Hindu, February 4, 2013, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/agnivi-all-set-to-take-shape/article4379416.ece. 33. Stephen P. Cohen and Sunil Dasgupta, Arming without Aiming: India's Military Modernization (Washington, DC: Brookings Press, 2010). 34. Shoaib Ahmed, "Mumbai: BARC Security Breached 25 Times in Two Years," CNN-IBNLive, March 28, 2012, http://ibnlive.in.com/news/mumbai-barc-security-breached-25-times-in-2-years/243563-3.html. 35. Shoaib Ahmed, "Mumbai: BARC Security Breached 25 Times in Two Years," CNN-IBNLive, March 28, 2012, http://ibnlive.in.com/news/mumbai-barc-security-breached-25-times-in-2-years/243563-3.html. 36. For example, Lt. Gen (Retd) Khalid Kidwai, head of Pakistan's Strategic Plans Divsision, referred to the development of so-called "Pak PALs" which he claimed to David Sanger were "every bit as safe as the American version." See David E. Sanger, "Obama's Worst Pakistan Nightmare," The New York Times, January 8, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/magazine/11pakistan-t.html?pagewanted=all. Additional informationNotes on contributorsVipin NarangVipin Narang is Assistant Professor of Political Science and member of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His book, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict is forthcoming with Princeton University Press