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Estimating Dynamic Asymmetries in Demand at the Munich Oktoberfest

2013; SAGE Publishing; Volume: 19; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.5367/te.2013.0215

2044-0375

Bernd Süßmuth, Ulrich Woitek,

Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

This study is the first to analyse economic time series of one of the world's most pre-eminent traditional events, the most popular beer festival and the largest regular fair in the world: Munich Oktoberfest. People from around the world have attended this cultural festival since the early decades of the 20th century, and so it represents a unique opportunity to analyse elasticities of consumption in the short and medium runs (that is, at business cycle frequencies) and in the long run. Against the backdrop of two secularly increasing demand factors – a rise in real disposable incomes and an increased amount of leisure time – the authors use a novel data set to study elasticities of the consumption of beer and food and the revenues of breweries. To account for asymmetries they apply partial sum decompositions in an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate elasticities for state, national, European and world GDP.