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A decomposition approach to labour market forecasting

2014; Routledge; Volume: 20; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/13547860.2014.964964

1469-9648

James Giesecke, Nhi Tran, Gerald Meagher, Felicity Pang,

Economic Growth and Productivity

AbstractRecognising human capital's central role in economic development, many countries in the Asia Pacific region have allocated significant resources to the development of their education sectors. However, despite growing policy concern over acute mismatches between qualification supply and qualification demand, few of these countries have national systems for generating and disseminating employment forecasts. In this paper, we outline a forecasting method that is parsimonious in its data requirements, making it suitable for the often data-constrained research environments of the Asia Pacific's developing economies. We apply the method to Vietnam, a rapidly growing transition economy. The method generates detailed labour market projections, while also making transparent the underlying macroeconomic, structural and policy shocks that determine the forecasts. A decomposition of forecast outcomes in terms of the individual contributions of these shocks facilitates transparency in forecasting, by clearly distinguishing and ranking factors responsible for generating each forecast outcome.Keywords: labour market forecastinglong-run forecastingdecomposition analysisVietnamese economyJEL classification: C68D58E47J21 AcknowledgementsThis paper is a product of a collaborative project with researchers from Vietnam's Institute of Labour Science and Social Affairs (ILSSA), a research arm of Vietnam's Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA). We thank all members of the ILSSA team, with particular thanks to Dr Nguyen Thi Lan Huong, Mr Luu Quang Tuan, Ms Nguyen Thi Lan, Mr Nguyen Ngoc Toan, Ms Trinh Thi Thu Nga, and Ms Pham Minh Thu, for their assistance and advice on data matters, and their helpful feedback on our research. We thank the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) for financing the project under Public Sector Linkage Project CF 09 2252 - Building capacity to develop and manage vocational and educational training policies. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and should not be construed as representing those of AusAID, ILSSA, or MOLISA.Notes1. Martinez-Fernandez and Choi (2012 Martinez-Fernandez, C., and K. Choi. 2012. "An Overview of Skills Development Pathways in Asia." In Skills Development Pathways in Asia. OECD's LEED (Local Economic and Employment Development) Report, pp. 13–40. Accessed May 15. http://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/Skills%20Development%20Pathways%20in%20Asia_FINAL%20VERSION.pdf [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) provide a number of cases. For example, China devoted 11% of its GDP to education and training in 2008 (Martinez-Fernandez and Choi 2012 Martinez-Fernandez, C., and K. Choi. 2012. "An Overview of Skills Development Pathways in Asia." In Skills Development Pathways in Asia. OECD's LEED (Local Economic and Employment Development) Report, pp. 13–40. Accessed May 15. http://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/Skills%20Development%20Pathways%20in%20Asia_FINAL%20VERSION.pdf [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). The average global share of education in GDP is 4.46% (World Bank 2013b World Bank. 2013b. Public Spending on Education, Total (% of GDP). World Development Indicators. Accessed June 3. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS [Google Scholar]). The average annual growth of university undergraduates entering the Chinese workforce exceeded 20% over 1998–2009 (Yang and Mayston 2012 Yang, J., and D. Mayston. 2012. "Impact of Over-Education on Wages in China." The Chinese Economy 45 (2): 65–89.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]). Thailand and Malaysia also have ambitious programmes. Thailand has a large-scale training system with the policy goal of ensuring that all youth entering the labour market by 2020 do so with appropriate skills (Martinez-Fernandez and Choi 2012 Martinez-Fernandez, C., and K. Choi. 2012. "An Overview of Skills Development Pathways in Asia." In Skills Development Pathways in Asia. OECD's LEED (Local Economic and Employment Development) Report, pp. 13–40. Accessed May 15. http://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/Skills%20Development%20Pathways%20in%20Asia_FINAL%20VERSION.pdf [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Malaysia plans to increase the share of skilled jobs from 28% in 2011 to 50% by 2020 (Martinez-Fernandez and Choi 2012 Martinez-Fernandez, C., and K. Choi. 2012. "An Overview of Skills Development Pathways in Asia." In Skills Development Pathways in Asia. OECD's LEED (Local Economic and Employment Development) Report, pp. 13–40. Accessed May 15. http://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/Skills%20Development%20Pathways%20in%20Asia_FINAL%20VERSION.pdf [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Vietnam has similar ambitions. Its human resource development plan aims to increase the share of trained and skilled personnel from 40% in 2010 to 70% in 2020 (Hoang 2012 Hoang, N.V. 2012. "Measures for Skills Development and Employment in Vietnam." In Skills Development Pathways in Asia. OECD's LEED (Local Economic and Employment Development) Report, pp. 83–93. Accessed May 15. http://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/Skills%20Development%20Pathways%20in%20Asia_FINAL%20VERSION.pdf [Google Scholar]). Indonesia's 'Law on National Education System' mandates a minimum 20% of the government budget be allocated to education (Posso 2011 Posso, A. 2011. "Government Expenditure on Education and Enrolment Rates in Indonesia in the New Millennium: An East Asian Perspective." Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 16 (2): 233–240.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). For a wider discussion of policies and programs across Asia, see OECD (2012 OECD. 2012. Skills Development Pathways in Asia. The LEED (Local Economic and Employment Development) Program. Accessed February 5. http://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/Skills%20Development%20Pathways%20in%20Asia_FINAL%20VERSION.pdf [Google Scholar]).2. Leuven and Oosterbeek (2011 Leuven, E.,and H. Oosterbeek. 2011. Overeducation and Mismatch in the Labor Market. Discussion Paper No. 5523, Bonn, IZA (The Institute for the Study of Labor). Accessed October 19. http://ftp.iza.org/dp5523.pdf[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) find skill mismatches are widespread in Asia. They report that the proportions of over-qualified and under-qualified workers in Asia are 26% and 21%, respectively. In China, the incidence of over-qualification and under-qualification among university graduates are approximately 20.5% and 17.4%, respectively (Yang and Mayston 2012 Yang, J., and D. Mayston. 2012. "Impact of Over-Education on Wages in China." The Chinese Economy 45 (2): 65–89.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]). In Pakistan, the levels of qualification mismatch, skill mismatch and field-mismatch for university graduates are about one-third, one-fourth and one-ninth, respectively (Farooq 2011 Farooq, S. 2011. "The Utilisation of Education and Skills: Incidence and Determinants Among Pakistani Graduates". Pakistan Development Review 50 (3): 219–244. [Google Scholar]). For discussions on the costs of skill mismatch, see McGuinness (2006 McGuinness, S. 2006. "Overeducation in the Labour Market." Journal of Economic Surveys 20 (3): 387–418.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]); Leuven and Oosterbeek (2011 Leuven, E.,and H. Oosterbeek. 2011. Overeducation and Mismatch in the Labor Market. Discussion Paper No. 5523, Bonn, IZA (The Institute for the Study of Labor). Accessed October 19. http://ftp.iza.org/dp5523.pdf[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]); Farooq (2011 Farooq, S. 2011. "The Utilisation of Education and Skills: Incidence and Determinants Among Pakistani Graduates". Pakistan Development Review 50 (3): 219–244. [Google Scholar]), and Yang and Mayston (2012 Yang, J., and D. Mayston. 2012. "Impact of Over-Education on Wages in China." The Chinese Economy 45 (2): 65–89.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]).3. In particular, see Figure 10.1 in Sparreboom (2013 Sparreboom, T. 2013. "Labour market information and analysis systems." In Perspectives on Labour Economics for Development, edited by S. Cazes, and S. Verick. Geneva: International Labor Organization. Accessed June 2. http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—dgreports/—dcomm/—publ/documents/publication/wcms_190112.pdf [Google Scholar]: 258).4. For example, input–output data for 129 countries and regions are available in the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 8.0 (Narayanan, Aguiar, and McDougall 2012 Narayanan, B., A. Aguiar, and R. McDougall, eds. 2012. Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 8 Data Base. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University. Available at https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v8/v8_doco.asp [Google Scholar]). Labour market data are available from labour force or household living standard surveys for most countries. According to the ILO, over 180 countries make their labour force survey data available online, and the ILO's LABORSTA database contains labour statistics for over 200 countries (ILO 2012 ILO. 2012. Labour Force Surveys. Geneva: International Labour Organization. Accessed October 19. http://www.ilo.org/dyn/lfsurvey/lfsurvey.home [Google Scholar]).5. For example, a World Bank-funded survey of employers found that 'worker skills and availability are more binding concerns for employers than labour market regulations and taxes' (World Bank 2013a World Bank. 2013a. "Skilling up Vietnam: Preparing the Workforce for A Modern Market Economy, Vietnam Development Report 2014." http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/11/26/000461832_20131126115640/Rendered/PDF/829400AR0P13040Box0379879B00PUBLIC0.pdf [Google Scholar], 14). According to the survey, a lack of required skills among job applicants is cited by approximately 80% of employers trying to hire professionals and technicians. This figure is 40% for employers hiring craftsmen. Skill gaps are also evident among blue-collar workers: '25% of firms claim that workers applying for a position of machine operator lack the required skills' (World Bank 2013a World Bank. 2013a. "Skilling up Vietnam: Preparing the Workforce for A Modern Market Economy, Vietnam Development Report 2014." http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/11/26/000461832_20131126115640/Rendered/PDF/829400AR0P13040Box0379879B00PUBLIC0.pdf [Google Scholar], 53).6. By fixed share, we mean exogenous. But this does not mean unchanged. Applications of almost all fixed-share models employ exogenous shocks to those fixed shares, with the shocks informed by such things as expert opinion on technical change and extrapolation of secular trends in the shares.7. Historical analysis with CGE models was pioneered by Dixon and Rimmer (2002 Dixon, P.B., and M.T. Rimmer. 2002. Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH. Amsterdam: North Holland. [Google Scholar]). An application of the method to explaining the recent history of Vietnam's development is Giesecke and Tran (2009 Giesecke, J.A., and H.N. Tran. 2009. "Sources of Growth and Structural Change in the Vietnamese Economy 1996–2003: A CGE Analysis." Asian Economic Journal 23 (2): 195–224.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).8. See Dixon et al. (1992 Dixon, P.B., B.R. Parmenter, A.A. Powel, and P.J. Wicoxen. 1992. Notes and Problems in Applied General Equilibrium Economics. Amsterdam: North-Holland. [Google Scholar], 124–126) for the derivation of this equation.9. Constant ratios of elasticity of substitution, homothetic (Hanoch 1971 Hanoch, G. 1971. "CRESH Production Functions." Econometrica 39 (5): 695–712.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]).10. Because we do not shock the preference variables in this simulation, we suppress them in Equation (4).11. In parameterising Equation (4), we set φo,s = 2 for all occupations and qualifications. With all ϕ's identical, the utility function described by Equation (3) is effectively CES, notwithstanding that our model is coded as CRESH to support future use of elasticities that differ across occupations and qualifications should these become available. In choosing 2 as the value for the φ's, we follow Dixon and Rimmer (2006 Dixon, P.B., and M.T. Rimmer. 2006. "The Displacement Effect of Labour-Market Programs: MONASH Analysis." The Economic Record 82: S26–S40.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). In Section 4, we discuss the sensitivity of our key welfare result to the value of φ.12. See Dixon et al. (1992 Dixon, P.B., B.R. Parmenter, A.A. Powel, and P.J. Wicoxen. 1992. Notes and Problems in Applied General Equilibrium Economics. Amsterdam: North-Holland. [Google Scholar], 126–128) for the derivation of Equation (5). In parameterising Equation (5), we set ϵo,s = 2 for all qualifications and occupations. We base this on estimates of the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled labour provided by Mollick (2011 Mollick, A.V. (2011). "The World Elasticity of Labor Substitution Across Education Levels." Empirical Economics 41 (3): 769–785.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Behar (2010 Behar, A. 2010. "Directed Technical Change, the Elasticity of Substitution and Wage Inequality in Developing Countries." Presented at the Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Conference, St Catherine's College, Oxford. March 21–23. http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/conferences/2010-EDiA/papers/196-Behar.pdf [Google Scholar]). Mollick estimates the plausible range for this parameter at between 2 and 3.2 for the world. Behar estimates the developing economy value for the parameter at 2. Both authors note that their estimates are somewhat higher than the prevailing consensus estimate of around 1.5. In Section 4, we discuss the sensitivity of our results to the value of ϵ over the range 1.5–3.13. The initial solution is calculated as follows. The model is initially calibrated to the Vietnamese input–output table for 2005 (GSO 2007 GSO (General Statistics Office). 2007. Vietnam Input-Output Table for the Year 2005. Data for the project UNDP-funded project VIE/03/010: "Technical Services to Build, Run and Transfer a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Public Finance System in Vietnam". [Google Scholar]), and household data from VHLSS 2006 (GSO 2010 GSO (General Statistics Office). 2010. Living Standard Surveys. General Statistics Office. Accessed February 20. http://www.gso.gov.vn/default_en.aspx?tabid=483&idmid=5 [Google Scholar]). These data serve as the initial solution to the VNET system of equations. We then update the model solution to the year 2010 via simulation, shocking the model with a set of observed changes in the economy over the period 2006–2010. These include real GDP, real private consumption, real public consumption, the population growth rate, the employment growth rate (GSO 2011a GSO (General Statistics Office). 2011a. Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Category at Current Prices. General Statistic Office. Accessed February 20. http://www.gso.gov.vn [Google Scholar], 2011b GSO (General Statistics Office). 2011b. Employed Population at 15 Years of Age and Above as of Annual 1 July by Types of Ownership and Kinds of Economic Activity. General Statistic Office. Accessed February 20. http://www.gso.gov.vn [Google Scholar]), changes in agricultural land use (NIAPP 2010 NIAPP (National Institute of Agricultural Planning and Projection). 2010. Policy Research on Vietnam's Food Security and Rice Value Chain Dynamics: Theme 1 – Food Security Research. Hanoi: World Bank. [Google Scholar]) and changes in production technology and household consumption preferences based on historical trends for Vietnam over the last decade (Giesecke and Tran 2009 Giesecke, J.A., and H.N. Tran. 2009. "Sources of Growth and Structural Change in the Vietnamese Economy 1996–2003: A CGE Analysis." Asian Economic Journal 23 (2): 195–224.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).14. IMF (2012 IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2012. World Economic Outlook (October 2012). Monash University Electronic Databases. Available from http://www.lib.monash.edu.au/non-cms/databases/economics.html [Google Scholar]) forecast an average growth rate of 6.7% over the period 2012–2017. The Government of Vietnam (2011) targets a growth rate of 7%–8% per annum over the period 2011–2022. Taken together, we assume an annual average growth rate of 7% over the period.15. Population and employment are forecast to grow by 1.04% and 1.39% per annum.16. That is, as the economy grows, we assume that export demand schedules shift outwards, accommodating expansion in exports at given foreign currency export prices. This assumption is realistic for three reasons. First, as Vietnam grows, other economies will also be growing, shifting outward demand curves for Vietnamese exports. Second, as Vietnam develops, Vietnamese trade negotiators will be successful in accessing foreign markets and countering protectionist reactions to export expansion. Third, Vietnamese entrepreneurs will have success in developing new products and niche markets for their exports.17. We exogenously determine the openness ratio via endogenous determination of cost-neutral import/domestic bias in technical change (see Dixon and Rimmer (2002 Dixon, P.B., and M.T. Rimmer. 2002. Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH. Amsterdam: North Holland. [Google Scholar], 59–60) for details on such technical change). As the openness ratio declines over the forecast period, the propensity to import declines. Since our macro closure links consumption with national income, there is little potential for the ratio of the balance of trade to GDP to change through time. Hence, with the import share in GDP declining, so too does the export share in GDP.18. Alesina, Spolaore, and Wacziarg (2005 Alesina, A., E. Spolaore, and R. Wacziarg. 2005. "Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries." In Handbook of Economic Growth, edited by P. Aghion, and S.N. Durlauf, 1499–1542. Amsterdam: Elsevier.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) calculate the correlation coefficient between the openness ratio (X+M)/GDP and log GDP to be −0.334. At the forecast 7% growth rate, Vietnam's real GDP will double between 2010 and 2020. Hence, the change in log GDP over the period is approximately log(2) or 0.3. Hence, the forecast change in the openness ratio is approximately −0.1 ( = −0.334 × 0.3). This represents 6% reduction from Vietnam's 2010 openness ratio of 1.65. The 2010 openness ratio is calculated from national accounts data, available at www.gso.gov.vn.19. The latter 'momentum' effect is described in Dixon and Rimmer (2002 Dixon, P.B., and M.T. Rimmer. 2002. Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH. Amsterdam: North Holland. [Google Scholar], 50–55).20. The Harrison, Horridge, and Pearson. (2000 Harrison, W.J., J.M. Horridge, and R.K. Pearson. 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks." Computational Economics 15: 15–35.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) decomposition algorithm calculates an exogenous variable's contribution to the total outcome for a given endogenous variable by summing its contributions as it moves along a path from its pre- to post-shock value. This requires, along this path, continuous re-evaluations of the endogenous variable's elasticity to the exogenous variable in question. These elasticities will be somewhat dependent on movements in other shocked variables. Hence, the effects of a given shock in a given column are largely, but not completely, independent of shocks in other columns.21. The CPI is the numeraire. Only results for real variables are reported in Table 2. Results for real variables are invariant to the value of the numeraire. As such, we do not report the CPI in Table 2.22. In column 1 of Table 2, real GDP rises by 64.9%, wagebill-weighted employment rises by 6.9% and capital rises by 53%. Returns to labour and capital in Vietnam represent approximately 0.50 and 0.41 of GDP at factor cost (the remaining 0.09 being returns to land). In the absence of technical change, we would expect real GDP in column 1 to increase by 25.2% ( = 0.50 × 6.9% + 0.41 × 53%). However, real GDP grows in column 1 by 64.9%. The difference (39.7%) represents growth in productivity. Expressed on an annual average basis, this represents a contribution by productivity growth to real GDP growth of 3.4% ( = {1.397^0.1 − 1)100}.23. With employment unchanged in column 1 (row 3), for a given capital stock, the immediate effect of the rise in total factor productivity is to increase the marginal product of capital. If capital stocks were to remain unchanged at their initial levels, the productivity increase would cause the rate of return on capital to rise. However, our closure allows industry-specific capital stocks to adjust so as to maintain unchanged initial rates of return on capital.24. Note that the model does not require export expansion to always be associated with terms of trade decline and real depreciation. The cause of the export expansion matters. For example, compare rows 11, 13 and 16 of columns 1 and 4 of Table 2. In column 1, we have export expansion via a (downward) movement along given export demand schedules as export supply expands (via productivity-driven general expansion in the size of the economy). The downward movement along given export demand schedules in column 1 generates a fall in foreign currency export prices and with that, real depreciation. In column 4, we have an expansion in exports via a (northeasterly) movement of the export demand schedules, all other things being held constant. If the real exchange rate were to remain unchanged in column 4, the resulting movement towards balance of trade surplus would be too large, compared with that required by the relative movements in real Gross National Expenditure (GNE) and real GDP generated by the outward shift in export demand schedules. Hence, real appreciation is required in column 4 to constrain the movement towards balance of trade surplus.25. For example, in row 1, column 2, the 17.4% growth in real GDP is the net outcome of two effects: +17.9% contribution from employment growth; and −0.5% contribution from contraction in agricultural land supply.26. Based on per capita GNP of USD 1120 (GSO 2011d GSO (General Statistics Office). 2011d. Key Indicators on National Accounts. General Statistic Office. Accessed February 20. http://www.gso.gov.vn [Google Scholar]) and an average household size of 3.9 persons (GSO 2010 GSO (General Statistics Office). 2010. Living Standard Surveys. General Statistics Office. Accessed February 20. http://www.gso.gov.vn/default_en.aspx?tabid=483&idmid=5 [Google Scholar])27. The effect of changing the absolute number of new entrants, holding their skill acquisition patterns unchanged, is reported in column 2.28. The factors aggregated in column 5 have neither a direct, nor material indirect, impact on either the supply or productivity of Vietnam's primary factors. Hence, there is little scope for real GDP to change in column 5. This can be contrasted with columns 1–4. In column 1, productivity rises through autonomous input-using technical change. In column 2, factor supply rises through autonomous changes in the supply of labour and land and through endogenous adjustment of capital supply at given rates of return. In column 3, there is an indirect impact on capital supply via the forecast growth in the terms of trade. In column 4, there is a rise in effective labour supply via the adjustment of training towards skills the relative demands for which are rising.29. This is due to our assumption, discussed in Section 3.2, that the growth rate of public consumption spending is slightly higher than the growth rate of real GDP.30. We recognise two sources of change in the supply of labour by qualification: expansion in aggregate employment with given qualification acquisition patterns (column 2) and changes in qualification acquisition patterns for a given level of aggregate employment (column 4). Supply of labour by qualification is not affected by the exogenous factors summarised within columns 1, 3 and 5. As discussed in Section 2.2, we assume long-run market-clearing wage rates for qualification-specific labour. Hence, with supply unchanged in columns 1, 3 and 5, so too must be demand. This accounts for the zero percentage changes reported in these columns in Table 3. The required movements in market-clearing wages required to reconcile changing demand for labour by qualification with labour supply by qualification are reported in Table 5.31. As discussed in Section 4, we assume that the allocation of Vietnam's training resources is adjusted over the simulation period to ensure that initial wage relativities across skill categories are maintained in the year 2020. This assumption of maintenance of initial wage relativities implies equal percentage changes in wage rates by qualification over the forecast period.32. For example, the model described in this paper was developed for, and is now used by, the Vietnamese Institute of Labour Sciences and Social Affairs, a research arm of the Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs. Model outputs are used to inform the Master Plan for Labour Market Development, part of Vietnam's Socio-Economic Development Strategy.Additional informationNotes on contributorsJames Andrew GieseckeJames Giesecke is a professor at the Centre of Policy Studies. His research focuses on the development of large-scale multi-regional and national computable general equilibrium models, and the application of such models to analysis of the determinants of economic growth and structural change, forecasting, and policy analysis.Nhi Hoang TranNhi Tran is a senior research fellow at the Centre of Policy Studies. Her research and publications focus on the development of large-scale dynamic CGE models and the application of such models to the analysis of policies relating to public finance, labour market, climate change, and agriculture in South-East Asian countries.Gerald Anthony MeagherTony Meagher is an adjunct associate professor (research) at the Centre of Policy Studies. His primary field of research is the application of applied general equilibrium modelling techniques to policy analysis and forecasting, with particular application to detailed employment forecasting by occupation, qualification and region.Felicity PangFelicity Pang is a strategic analyst in the Asset and Liability Management Department of the Bank of China, Macau. She has research experience in the application of CGE modelling to issues concerning the distribution of employment and income.