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Parameterized Multistate Population Dynamics and Projections

1986; Volume: 81; Issue: 393 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/01621459.1986.10478237

1537-274X

Andrei Rogers,

demographic modeling and climate adaptation

"This article reports progress on the development of a population projection process that emphasizes model selection over demographic accounting. Transparent multiregional/multistate population projections that rely on parameterized model schedules are illustrated [using data primarily from a number of developed countries, particularly Sweden], together with simple techniques that extrapolate the recent trends exhibited by the parameters of such schedules." The author notes that "the parameterized schedules condense the amount of demographic information, expressing it in a language and variables that are more readily understood by the users of the projections. In addition, they permit a concise specification of the expected temporal patterns of variation among these variables, and they allow a disaggregated focus on demographic change that otherwise would not be feasible."