Are Multiple Analyst Earnings Forecasts Better Than the Single Forecast?
2011; Routledge; Volume: 12; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/15427560.2010.526731
ISSN1542-7579
Autores Tópico(s)Forecasting Techniques and Applications
ResumoAbstract This study investigates the impact of multiple information sources. Specifically, we examine whether single and multiple earnings forecasts may differentially influence investors' expectations. We focus on two main aspects of investors' expectations: (a) predictions of future EPS and (b) subjective confidence about their own predictions. We conduct an experiment where we hold information content constant and ask participants to evaluate multiple earnings forecasts or a single earnings estimate. Results from the experiment suggest that multiple information sources improve participants' confidence, and participants are most confident when they receive multiple earnings forecasts with no variability. However, their confidence diminishes when variability in the multiple forecasts increases. Evidence from this study indicates that multiple information sources outperform the single source only when multiple reports have highly consistent information. Keywords: AggregationConfidence judgmentEarnings forecastsInvestmentDecision making Notes 1. This agreement, known as the Global Research Analyst Settlement, was the culmination of extensive investigations by Congress, then New York Attorney General Elliot Spitzer, the SEC, and other regulators, into potential conflicts-of-interest among security analysts employed by investment banking firms. The ten firms are Bear Stearns, Citigroup (formerly Salomon Smith Barney), Credit Suisse First Boston, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Securities, Lehman Brothers,Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, UBS Warburg, and U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray.
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