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Iraq: The Mother of all intelligence failures

2006; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 21; Issue: 5 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/02684520600957811

1743-9019

Michael Fitzgerald, Richard Ned Lebow,

Intelligence, Security, War Strategy

Abstract The most important American intelligence failure in Iraq was the widespread belief among top administration officials that Saddam could be overthrown at little cost and successfully replaced by a pro-American regime. We trace the causes of these and related intelligence failures to the administration's hubris. It led the Secretary of Defense and Vice President – the men most responsible for the Iraq decisions – to formulate unrealistic expectations about America's ability to impose its will in the Middle East and to rig the feedback networks in the military and intelligence communities to provide them with confirming estimates while downplaying discrepant information. Notes 1 On Thucydides and tragedy, see Richard Ned Lebow, The Tragic Vision of Politics: Ethics, Interests and Orders (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2003) chapters 3 and 4. 2 Aristotle, Poetics, 11.1452a32 and 24.1460a27–31. 3 Hans J. Morgenthau, Scientific Man vs. Power Politics (Chicago: University of Chicago Press 1947) p.167. 4 Hans Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations (New York: Alfred Knopf 1948), p.11, note 4, and 'The Political Science of E.H. Carr', World Politics I (October 1948) pp.127–34. 5 Aristotle, Rhetoric, 1378b28–29. 6 Barton Gellman, 'Keeping the U.S. First: Pentagon Would Preclude a Rival Superpower', Washington Post, 11 March 1992. 7 Elliot Abrams, Richard Armitage, William Bennett, Jeffrey Bergner, John Bolton, Paula Dobriansky, Francis Fukuyama, Robert Kagan, Zalmay Kalilzad, William Kristol, Richard Perle, Peter Rodman, Donald Rumsfeld, William Schneider, Jr., Vin Weber, Paul Wolfowitz, R. James Woolsey, and Robert Zoelick, 'Speaking of Iraq' (open letter to President Clinton), Washington Times, 27 January 1998. 8 Transcript of interview with Brent Scowcroft, Face the Nation, 4 August 2002; Brent Scowcroft, 'Don't Attack Saddam, Wall Street Journal, 15 August 2002, p.A12; Todd Purdum and Patrick E. Tyler, 'Top Republicans Break with Bush on Iraq Strategy', New York Times, 16 August 2002, p.Al; James A. Baker II, 'The Right Way to Change a Regime', New York Times, 25 August 2002, section 4, p.9; Transcript of Lawrence Eagleburger, Crossfire, 19 August 2002; Interview with Lawrence Eagleburger, Fox News Sunday, Washington, DC, 18 August 2002; Walter Gibbs, 'Scowcroft Urges Wide Role for the U.N. in Postwar Iraq', New York Times, 9 April 2003; Eric Schmitt, 'Iraq is Defiant as G.O.P. Leaders Opposes Attack', New York Times, 9 August 2002, p.A6. 9 Quoted in Michael Elliot and James Carney, 'First Stop Iraq', Time, 31 March 2003, p.73. 10 'Rebuilding America's Defenses', A Report of the Project for the New American Century, September 2000. 11 George W. Bush, 'National Security Strategy of the United States of America', 17 September 2002 . 12 Donald Rumsfeld, 'Beyond Nation Building', speech given on 14 February 2003 . 13 John Mearsheimer, 'Hans Morgenthau and the Iraq War: Realism vs. Neoconservatism', Open Democracy . 14 Paul Pillar, 'Intelligence, Policy, and the War in Iraq', Foreign Affairs (March/April 2006) . 15 Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor, Cobra II (New York: Pantheon Books 2006) p.28. 16 Ibid. p.52. 17 Ibid. 18 Donald Rumsfeld, 'Beyond Nation Building' (note 12). 19 'Powell Forces Rice to Defend Iraq Planning', Associated Press in the New York Times, 30 April 2006. 20 Jim Rutenberg, 'General Defends Rumsfeld, With a Caveat', New York Times, 17 April 2006. 21 Gordon and Trainor, Cobra II (note 15) p.103. 22 Evan Thomas and John Barry, 'Anatomy of a Revolt', Newsweek, 24 April 2006, pp.28–31. 23 Michael Gordon, 'Criticizing an Agent of Change for Failing to Adapt', New York Times, 21 April 2006. 24 Paul Eaton, 'A Top-Down Review for the Pentagon', New York Times, 19 March 2006. 25 John Riggs, Interview with NPR, 13 April 2006 . 26 Sean Loughlin, 'Rumsfeld on Looting', CNN.com . 27 Eric Schmitt, 'The Conflict in Iraq: Troops' Queries Leave Rumsfeld on the Defensive', New York Times, 9 December 2004. 28 Josh White, 'Rumsfeld Challenges Rice on Tactical Errors in Iraq', Washington Post, 6 April 2006. 29 Pillar, 'Intelligence, Policy, and the War in Iraq' (note 14). 30 Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press 1981) chapters 4–6; Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press 1984); Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press), chapter 3, for theory and examples. 31 Michael Smith, 'Blair Hit by New Leak of Secret War Plan', Sunday Times of London, 1 May 2005; See . Dearlove has indicated that the minute of his views was subsequently amended. 32 Pillar, 'Intelligence, Policy, and the War in Iraq' (note 14). 33 CNN Presents 'Dead Wrong', 21 August 2005 . 34 Michael A. Levi, 'Technical Difficulties: The CIA, Iraq, and the Bomb', New Republic, 15 July 2004. 35 Seymour Hersh, 'War and Intelligence', New Yorker (May 2003). 36 Evan Thomas and Mark Hosenball, 'The Rise and Fall of Chalabi: Bush's Mr. Wrong', Newsweek, 31 May 2005. 37 Colin Powell, 'Secretary of State's Address to the U.N. Security Council', 5 February 2003 . 38 CNN Presents 'Dead Wrong' (note 33). 39 George Bush, 'President Bush Outlines Iraqi Threat', 7 October 2002 . 40 National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, pp.61, 161, 334–5 . 41 David Milbank, 'Bush Defends Assertions of Iraq–Al Qaeda Relationship', Washington Post, 18 June 2004, p.A9; Walter Pincus and Dana Milbank, 'Al Qaeda Link is Dismissed', Washington Post, 17 June 2004, p.A1; Seymour M. Hersh, Chain of Command: The Road from 9/11 to Abu Ghraib (New York: Harper 2004) pp.203–47. 42 CNN Presents 'Dead Wrong' (note 33). 43 David Remnick, 'Faith Based Intelligence', New Yorker (July 2003). 44 George Bush, '2003 State of the Union Address', 28 January 2003 . 45 Seymour Hersh, 'Who Lied to Whom?, New Yorker (March 2003). 46 Dana Priest and Karen DeYoung, 'CIA Questioned Documents Linking Iraq, Uranium Ore', Washington Post, 22 March 2003; Joshua Micah Marshall, 'Talking Points Memo', 17 July 2004 ; Butler Committee Report ; Ann Taylor, 'UK Parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee Report: Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction – Intelligence and Assessments . 47 George Bush, '2003 State of the Union Address', 28 January 2003. 48 Pillar, 'Intelligence, Policy, and the War in Iraq' (note 14). 49 Quoted in Hersh, Chain of Command (note 41) p.169. 50 Carl von Clausewitz, On War, ed. and trans. by Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press 1976) Book I. 51 Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay, America Unbound: The Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy, rev. ed. (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley 2005) pp.163–4; James Fallows, 'Blind into Baghdad', Atlantic Monthly (January/February 2004). 52 Eric Schmitt and Joe Brinkley, 'The Struggle for Iraq: Planning; State Dept. Study Foresaw Trouble Now Plaguing Iraq', New York Times, 19 October 2003. 53 Eric Schmitt and Joe Brinkley, 'The Struggle for Iraq: Pre-War Planning; Iraqi Leaders Say U.S. Was Warned of Disorder After Hussein, But Little Was Done', New York Times, 30 November 2003. 54 Gordon and Trainor, Cobra II (note 15) pp.141, 149. 55 Ibid. pp.145–6. 56 Fallows, 'Blind into Baghdad' (note 51); John Barry and Evan Thomas, 'The Unbuilding of Iraq', Newsweek, 6 October 2003. 57 Hersh, Chain of Command (note 41) pp.249–57. 58 David L. Phillips, Losing Iraq: Inside the Postwar Reconstruction Fiasco (Boulder, CO: Westview 2005) pp.68–73. 59 Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack (New York: Simon & Schuster 2004) pp.282–4. 60 Rumsfeld, 'Beyond Nation Building' (note 12). 61 . 62 Larry Diamond, 'What Went Wrong in Iraq?', Foreign Affairs (September/October 2004) p.5; Phillips, Losing Iraq (note 58) pp.198–9. 63 For the results, see . 64 , reporting survey results from the major media and polling organizations.