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The Other January Effect: Evidence against market efficiency?

2010; Elsevier BV; Volume: 34; Issue: 10 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.03.019

1872-6372

Ben R. Marshall, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti,

Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance

The Other January Effect (OJE), which suggests positive (negative) equity market returns in January predict positive (negative) returns in the following 11 months of the year, underperforms a simple buy-and-hold strategy before and after risk-adjustment. Even the best modified OJE strategy, which benefits from several ex-post adjustments, does not generate statistically or economically significant excess returns. When the OJE is tested with a method that is consistent with investor experience it is clear the OJE is no more profitable than an 11-month strategy that uses November or December as the conditioning month.