Derivation and validation of a set of 10-year cardiovascular risk predictive functions in Spain: The FRESCO Study
2014; Elsevier BV; Volume: 61; Linguagem: Inglês
10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.12.031
ISSN1096-0260
AutoresJaume Marrugat, Isaac Subirana, Rafel Ramos, Joan Vila, Alejandro Marín-Ibáñez, María Jesús Guembe, Fernando Rigo, María José Tormo Díaz, Conchi Moreno‐Iribas, Joan Vila, Antonio Segura, José Miguel Baena-Díez, Agustı́n Gómez de la Cámara, José Lapetra, María Grau, Miquel Quesada, María Medrano, Paulino González Diego, Guiem Frontera, Diana Gavrila, Eva Ardanáz, Josep Basora, José-María García-García, Manuel García-Lareo, José A. Gutiérrez, Eduardo Mayoral, Joan Sala, Ralph B. D’Agostino, Roberto Elosúa,
Tópico(s)Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
ResumoTo derive and validate a set of functions to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and validate the Framingham-REGICOR function. Pooled analysis of 11 population-based Spanish cohorts (1992–2005) with 50,408 eligible participants. Baseline smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), lipid profile, and body mass index were recorded. A ten-year follow-up included re-examinations/telephone contact and cross-linkage with mortality registries. For each sex, two models were fitted for CHD, stroke, and both end-points combined: model A was adjusted for age, smoking, and body mass index and model B for age, smoking, diabetes, SBP, total and HDL cholesterol, and for hypertension treatment by SBP, and age by smoking and by SBP interactions. The 9.3-year median follow-up accumulated 2973 cardiovascular events. The C-statistic improved from model A to model B for CHD (0.66 to 0.71 for men; 0.70 to 0.74 for women) and the combined CHD-stroke end-points (0.68 to 0.71; 0.72 to 0.75, respectively), but not for stroke alone. Framingham-REGICOR had similar C-statistics but overestimated CHD risk. The new functions accurately estimate 10-year stroke and CHD risk in the adult population of a typical southern European country. The Framingham-REGICOR function provided similar CHD prediction but overestimated risk.
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