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Prediction of Advanced Fibrosis in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: An Enhanced Model of BARD Score

2013; Korean Association for the Study of the Liver; Volume: 7; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.5009/gnl.2013.7.3.323

2005-1212

Tae Hoon Lee, SeungHye Han, Ju Dong Yang, Donghee Kim, §, Monjur Ahmed∥,

Hepatitis C virus research

The BARD score is a model to detect advanced liver fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients. The aims of this study were to identify additional factors and then to build an enhanced version of the BARD score.One hundred seven patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were enrolled retrospectively. Logistic regressions were performed to identify independent risk factors for advanced liver fibrosis (stage 3 or 4). An enhanced model of the BARD score (BARDI score) was built and evaluated with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.In multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 0.89; p=0.04), aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio (OR, 1.73; p<0.01), and international normalized ratio (INR) (OR, 8.85; p<0.01) were independently significant factors. The BARDI score was created by adding the INR to the BARD. The area under the ROC curve of the BARDI score was significantly larger than that of the BARD score (0.881 vs 0.808, p<0.01). A BARDI score of 3 or more showed a positive predictive value (PPV) of 51.0% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.0%.The BARDI score had an improved PPV over the BARD score and maintained an excellent NPV. Further study is warranted for its external validation and comparison with other models.