LOOKING BACKWARDS: ASSESSING THE PROJECTIONS OF A TRANSITION MATRIX MODEL
1999; Wiley; Volume: 9; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[1278
ISSN1939-5582
Autores Tópico(s)Species Distribution and Climate Change
ResumoEcological ApplicationsVolume 9, Issue 4 p. 1278-1287 Article LOOKING BACKWARDS: ASSESSING THE PROJECTIONS OF A TRANSITION MATRIX MODEL Paulette Bierzychudek, Paulette Bierzychudek Department of Biology, Lewis and Clark College, Portland, Oregon 97219 USA E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author Paulette Bierzychudek, Paulette Bierzychudek Department of Biology, Lewis and Clark College, Portland, Oregon 97219 USA E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author First published: 01 November 1999 https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[1278:LBATPO]2.0.CO;2Citations: 94 Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstract Analyses of population projection models are increasingly being used by conservation biologists and land managers to assess the health of sensitive species and to evaluate the likely effects of management strategies, harvesting, grazing, or other manipulations. Here I describe some of the limitations of this approach and illustrate how these limitations may affect its usefulness. I do this by comparing the results of such an analysis, performed in 1979 on two populations of a perennial plant, Arisaema triphyllum, with new information about the size and structure of these same populations gathered in 1994, 15 years later. While one population changed as the model projected it would, the other behaved quite differently from the projection. Instead of increasing in size, this population decreased between 1979 and 1994. Possible shortcomings in the data and in the model include: too few plants to provide accurate transition probabilities; too few years to capture accurately the complete range of year-to-year environmental variability; and the failure of the most commonly used form of the model to account for density-dependent vital rates. In addition, the asymptotic growth rates (λ) these models yield may sometimes be irrelevant and even misleading if one's primary interest is in a population's short-term prospects for survival, as is often the case in studies of sensitive species. These shortcomings may apply to many studies involving the use of projection models, and they have important implications for the value of this approach in conservation biology and species management decisions. Literature Cited Alvarez-Buylla, E. 1994. Density-dependence and patch dynamics in tropical rain forests: matrix models and application to a tree species. American Naturalist 143: 155–191. 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