Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Al Qaeda's Uncertain Future

2013; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 36; Issue: 8 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/1057610x.2013.802973

1521-0731

Bruce Hoffman,

Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

AbstractThis article considers the current state of the Al Qaeda terrorist movement and its likely future trajectory. It considers the principle assumptions both today and in the past about Al Qaeda and how they affect our understanding of the movement and the threat that it poses; Al Qaeda's current capacity for violence; and its ability to plan strategically and implement terrorist operations. The article further identifies nine key change drivers that will likely determine Al Qaeda's fate in the years to come before concluding that, even while the core Al Qaeda group may be in decline, Al Qaeda-ism, the movement's ideology, continues to resonate and attract new adherents. In sum, it argues that Al Qaeda remains an appealing brand most recently and most especially to extremist groups in North and West Africa and the Levant. NotesQuoted in Lee Ferran, "Al Qaeda 'Shadow of Former Self', US Counter-Terror Official Says," ABC News Investigative, 30 April 2012. Available at http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/04/al Qaeda-shadow-of-former-self/ (accessed on 10 September 2012).Quoted in Phil Stewart, "Strikes on al Qaeda Leave Only 'Handful' of Top Targets," Reuters (US Edition), 11 June 2012. Available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/22/us-usa-panetta-saudi-idUSBRE85L05320120622 (accessed on 10 September 2012).Quoted in "Panetta Says Al Qaeda Defeat 'Within Reach'," al Jazeera, 9 July 2011. Available at http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2011/07/201179211045505379.html (accessed on 10 September 2012); See also, Greg Miller, "U.S. Officials Believe Al Qaeda on Brink of Collapse," Washington Post, 26 July 2011.Quoted in Peter Bergen, "Time to Declare Victory: Al Qaeda is Defeated," Security Clearance, 27 June 2012. Available at http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/27/time-to-declare-victory-al Qaeda-is-defeated-opinion/ (accessed on 10 September 2012).US Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism 2011 (Washington, DC: US Department of State Publication, April 2012), p. 5. Available at http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/195768.pdf (accessed on 10 September 2012).Siobhan Gorman, "CIA Kills Al Qaeda's No. 2," Wall Street Journal, 6 June 2012; Declan Walsh and Eric Schmitt, "Drone Strike Killed No. 2 in Al Qaeda, U.S. Officials Say," New York Times, 5 June 2012; Joby Warrick and Greg Miller, "Al Qaeda's No. 2 Leader Killed in U.S. Airstrike," Washington Post, 5 June 2012.Jonathan Masters, "Backgrounder: Targeted Killings," Council on Foreign Relations, 30 April 2012. Available at http://www.cfr.org/counterterrorism/targeted-killings/p9627 (accessed on 10 September 2012)."The Year of the Drone: Leaders Killed," Counterterrorism Strategy Initiative, New America Foundation, 2012. Available at http://counterterrorism.newamerica.net/about/militants (accessed on 10 September 2012).John Yoo, "Obama, Drones and Thomas Aquinas," Wall Street Journal, 8 June 2012.US Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism 2011 (Washington, DC: US Department of State Publication, April 2012), p. 5. Available at http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/195768.pdf (accessed on 10 September 2012).See, for instance, Bergen, "Time to Declare Victory"; Fawaz Gerges, Obama and the Middle East: The End of America's Moment (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012), pp. 203–207 and 221–225; Thomas F. Lynch III, The 80 Percent Solution: The Strategic Defeat of bin Laden's Al Qaeda and Implications for South Asian Security (Washington, DC: New America Foundation, February 2012); "The Many Faces of Al Qaeda," The Soufan Group, 5 September 2012. Available at http://soufangroup.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3fe77a4916f69c37ee2ac1cbe&id=f32f943f7e&e=8e25f1caae (accessed on 10 September 2012); and Clint Watts, "What if There is No Al Qaeda? Preparing For Future Terrorism" (Philadelphia, PA: Foreign Policy Research Institute, July 2012). Available at http://www.fpri.org/enotes/2012/201207.watts.alQaeda.html (accessed on 10 September 2012).Quoted in Dana Priest and Susan Schmidt, "Al-Qa'ida's Top Primed to Collapse, U.S. Says," Washington Post, 16 March 2003.See, for example, CNN, "Alleged bin Laden Tape a Call to Arms." Available at http://cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/02/11/sprj.irq.wrap (accessed on 10 September 2012) and bin Laden's statement, "We want to let you know and confirm to you that this war of the infidels that the US is leading with its allies … we are with you and we will fight in the name of God."David R. Sands, "Al-Qa'ida's Credibility 'on the Line' as War in Iraq Winds Down," Washington Times, 24 April 2003. See also, Dennis Pluchinsky, "Al-Qa'ida Identity Crisis," Washington Times, 28 April 2003.While both the 2005 London bombings and 2006 airline bomb have been conclusively linked to Core Al Qaeda, its links to the Madrid attack—although suspected—have never satisfactorily been established. See, for instance, Fernando Reinares, "The Evidence of Al-Qa'ida's Role in the 2004 Madrid Attack," CTC Sentinel 5(3) (March 2012). Available at http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-evidence-of-al-qaidas-role-in-the-2004-madrid-attack (accessed on 10 September 2012); and idem, "The Madrid Bombings and Global Jihadism," Survival 52(2) (April–May 2010), pp. 83–104.Juan Zarate, "Winning the War on Terror: Marking Success and Confronting Challenges," text of prepared remarks at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, DC, 23 April 2008. Available at http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC07.php?CID=393 (accessed on 10 September 2012).Alex Spillius, "Demise of Al-Qa'eda in Sight, US Official Says," Telegraph.co.uk|Print version, 15 May 2008. Available at www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/democrats/1957428/Demise-of-al-Qa'eda-in-sight,-US-official-says.html (accessed on 10 September 2012).Ross Colvin, "Violence in Iraq Falls to Lowest Level in 4 Years," Reuters, 24 May 2008. Available at at:http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSCOL462053._CH_.2400 (accessed on 10 September 2012).Joby Warrick, "U.S. Cites Big Gains against Al-Qadea: Group is Facing Setbacks Globally, CIA Chief Says," Washington Post, 30 May 2008.See, in particular, Scott Shane, "Terrorism Experts Say Focus on Al Qaeda Misses a Broader Threat," New York Times, 13 August 2006; and the debate in Bruce Hoffman, "The Myth of Grass-Roots Terrorism: Why Osama bin Laden Still Matters," Foreign Affairs 87(3) (May/June 2008), pp. 133–138; and Marc Sageman and Bruce Hoffman, "Does Osama Still Call the Shots?" Foreign Affairs 87(4) (July/August 2008), pp. 163–166.United States District Court Eastern District of New York, United States of America v. Adis Medunjanin, Abid Nasser, Adnan El Shukrijumah, Tariq Ur Rehman, and FNU LNU, 7 July 2010. See also, Nic Robertson, Paul Cruickshank, and Tim Lister, "Document Shows Origins of 2006 Plot for Liquid Bombs on Planes," CNN World, 30 April 2012. Available at http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/30/world/alQaeda-documents/index.html?iref=allsearch (accessed on 10 September 2012).Department of Justice, Office of Public Affairs, "Faisal Shahzad Pleads Guilty in Manhattan Federal Court to 10 Federal Crimes Arising from Attempted Car Bombing in Times Square," US Department of Justice, 21 June 2010. Available at http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2010/June/10-ag-721.html (accessed on 10 September 2012).See for instance the November 2006 landmark speech that the then Director General of the British Security Service, or MI5, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, gave. She explained how upwards of 30 terrorist plots and attacks in the United Kingdom "linked back to al Qaeda in Pakistan and through those links al Qaeda gives guidance and training to its largely British foot soldiers here on an extensive and growing scale." Quoted in BBC News, "Extracts from MI5 Chief's Speech," 10 November 2006. Available at http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/2/hl/news/6135000.stm (accessed on 10 September 2012).Nelly Lahoud et al., Letters from Abbottabad: Bin Laden Sidelined? (West Point, NY: Combating Terrorism Center, 3 May 2012)."Osama bin Laden's Last Words Show Dark Days for Al Qaeda," CBS World News, 3 May 2012. Available at http: www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57426970/osama-bin-ladens-last-words-show-dark-days-for-al Qaeda/ (accessed on 10 September 2012). See for instance also Peter Baker, "Recovered bin Laden Letters Show a Divided Al Qaeda," New York Times, 3 May 2012; Ben Fenton, Johanna Kassel, and Richard McGregor, "Bin Laden Papers Reveal Al Qaeda Rifts," Financial Times (London), 3 May 2012; and Gregg Miller and Peter Finn, "New Osama bin Laden Documents Released," Washington Post, 3 May 2012.Lahoud et al., Letters from Abbottabad, p. 1.Sebastian Rotella, "New Details in the bin Laden Docs: Portrait of a Fugitive Micro-Manager," ProPublica, 11 May 2011. Available at http://www.propublica.org/article/bin-laden-documents-portrait-of-a-fugitive-micro-manager (accessed on 10 September 2012)."Osama bin Laden Diary 'Planned Attacks'—US Officials," BBC News US & Canada, 12 May 2011. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13370524 (accessed on 10 September 2012).Greg Miller and Karen DeYoung, "Bin Laden's Preoccupation with U.S. Said to be Source of Friction with Followers," Washington Post, 12 May 2011; and Kimberley Dozier, "Officials: Bin Laden Eyed Small Cities as Targets," Associated Press, 12 May 2011. Available at http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_bin_laden (accessed on 10 September 2012).Miller and DeYoung, "Bin Laden's Preoccupation with U.S. Said to be Source of Friction with Followers."See Mary Habeck, "Evaluating the War with al Qaeda" (Parts I-IV, 2 March 2012–17 April 2012); idem, "What Does Al Qaeda Want?" (6 March 2012); "Evaluating the War with Al Qaeda" (15 March 2012); idem, "Answering Objections: Is Al Qaeda really Dead, Part One?" (19 April 2012); "Al Qaeda: Alive and Kicking" (8 May 2012); and, idem, "Can We Declare the War on Al Qaeda Over?" (27 June 2012), Foreign Policy—Shadow Government: Notes From The Loyal Opposition. Available at http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/blog/69526 (accessed on 10 September 2012); Seth G. Jones, "Al Qaeda is Far from Defeated," Wall Street Journal, 29 April 2012; idem, "Think Again: Al Qaeda," Foreign Policy, May/June 2012. Available at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/23/think_again_al_qaeda?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full (accessed on 10 September 2012); and Bruce Riedel, "Al Qaeda's Arab Comeback: Capitalizing on Chaos in Syria, Mali," The Daily Beast, 30 July 2012. Available at http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/07/30/alQaeda-s-arab-comeback-capitalizing-on-chaos-in-syria-mali.html (accessed on 10 September 2012).AQAP, for instance, did not follow bin Laden's advice to avoid seizing territory and controlling the populace in areas of Yemen it controlled. See SOCOM-2012-0000016; SOCOM-2012–0000018; and, Lahoud et al., Letters from Abbottabad, p. 2, bin Laden docs.Daniel Byman, "Splitting al-Qa'ida and its affiliates," Foreign Policy: The AfPak Channel, 30 July 2012. Available at http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/07/30/splitting_al_qaida_and_its_affiliates (accessed on 10 September 2012).See SOCOM-2012-0000005; SOCOM-2012-0000006; SOCOM-2012-0000010; SOCOM-2012-0000016; SOCOM-2012-0000017; and SOCOM-2012-0000019.SOCOM-2012-0000013; and Lahoud et al., Letters from Abbottabad, p. 19SOCOM-2012-0000006.The first of the released CTC documents curiously begins with the serial number SOCOM-2012–0000003: both 0000001 and 0000002 are missing. No explanation is offered for this discrepancy as well. The author is indebted to Dr. Mary Habeck of the Paul Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC for pointing this out.Jason Burke, "Bin Laden Files Show Al-Qaida and Taliban Leaders in Close Contact," The Guardian, 29 April 2012. Available at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/29/bin-laden-al-qaida-taliban-contact (accessed on 10 September 2012).Ibid.; and, Michael Semple, "The Taliban Need Help to Break Their Al-Qaida Ties," The Guardian, 30 April 2012. Available at http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/30/taliban-al-qaida-ties (accessed on 10 September 2012).SOCOM-2012-0000009.SOCOM-2012-0000003.Ibid.See SOCOM-2012-0000016, SOCOM-2012-0000017, and SOCOM-2012-0000019.Habeck, "Can We Declare the War on Al Qaeda Over?"See Siobhan Gorman, "CIA Kills Al Qaeda's No. 2," Wall Street Journal, 6 June 2012.See Michael Scheuer, "The Zawahiri Era," The National Interest, September-October 2011. Available at http://nationalinterest.org/article/zawahiri-era-5732; and, Bruce Hoffman, "Scarier than Bin Laden," Washington Post (Sunday Outlook section), 9 September 2007.Ayman al-Zawahiri, Knights Under The Prophet's Banner. Available at http://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/6759609-knights-under-the-prophet-banner.pdf (accessed on 10 September 2012).This conceptualization was developed by the Norwegian expert Thomas Hegghammer, "Ideological Hybridization of Jihadi Groups," Current Trends in Islamist Ideology 9, 18 November 2009. Available at http://www.currenttrends.org/research/detail/the-ideological-hybridization-of-jihadi-groups (accessed on 10 September 2012).See Duncan Gardham, "British Secret Agent was Al Qaeda Mole who Cracked New 'Underpants' Plot," Daily Telegraph, 10 May 2012. Available at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/aQaeda/9258475/British-secret-agent-was-alQaeda-mole (accessed 10 September 2012); and Ewen MacAskill and Ian Black, "Underwear Bomb Plot: British and U.S. Intelligence Rattled over Leaks," Guardian, 11 May 2012. Available at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/11/underwear-bomb-plot-mi6-cia-leaks (accessed on 10 September 2012).See, for example, Gerges, Obama and the Middle East, pp. 222–225.See, for instance, al-Zawahiri's series of messages of "Hope and Glad Tidings to our People in Egypt," in "Zawahiri Releases Ninth Episode in Series on Egypt, Current Events," 29February 2012, text and translation provided SITE Monitoring Service—Jihadist Threat.Saleh Nabhan, who was killed by U.S. commandos in September 2009, and Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, who was shot at a military checkpoint in Mogadishu in June 2011."Zawahiri Issues Video in Support of Syrian Uprising," 11 February 2012, and "Libi Speaks on the Plight of Syrians in New Video," 12 June 2012, text and translation provided by SITE Monitoring Service—Jihadist Threat. See also, "Syria Uprising: Al Qaeda's al-Zawahiri Lends Support," BBC News—Middle East, 12 February 2012. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17002573 (accessed on 10 September 2012).Unclassified briefing presented by a U.S. intelligence analyst to the author, 23 February 2012."Jihadists Discuss Jihad in Syria," 14 February 2012, text and translation provided by SITE Monitoring Service—Jihadist Threat.Quoted in unclassified 23 February 2012 briefing."Jihadists Launch a Syria-Focused Periodical, 'Balagh'," 13 March 2012, text and translation provided by SITE Monitoring Service—Jihadist Threat."Jihadists Urge Financial Support for Jihad in Syria," 2 March 2012, in ibid.Ed Husain, "Syria; Why al Qaeda is Winning," National Review Online, 23 August 2012. Available at http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/314685/syria-why-al Qaeda-winning-ed-husain (accessed on 10 September 2012). See also, Radwan Mortada, "Bilad al-Sham: Jihad's Newest Hot Spot," al Akhbar English, 26 June 2012.James S. Robbins, "Bin Laden's Vision Thing: Is bin Laden Saying that this Whole Thing is Warren G. Harding's Fault?" National Review.com, 8 October 2001. Available at http://old.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-robbins100801.shtml (accessed on 10 September 2012).Osama bin Laden, "Among a Band of Knights, February 14 2003," in Bruce Lawrence, ed., Messages to the World: The Statements Of Osama Bin Laden (London and New York: Verso, 2005), pp. 186–187.See Shaykh ul-Islaam Taqi-ud-Deen Ahmad ibn Taymiyyah, The Religious and Moral Doctrine of Jihad (Birmingham, England: Maktabah al Ansaar Publications, 2001).Husain, "Syria; Why Al Qaeda is Winning."Ibid.; Dina Temple-Raston, "Al-Qaida Eyes Opportunities in Syria," All Things Considered—National Public Radio, 12 March 2012. Available at http://www.npr.org/2012/03/12/148467185/al-qaida-leader-eyes-opportunities-in-syria (accessed on 10 September 2012); and, Eric Schmitt, "Sunni Extremists may be Aiding Al Qaeda's Ambitions in Syria, Analysts Say," New York Times, 15 February 2012.Noman Bentoman, "The Jihadist Network in the Syrian Revolution: A Strategic Briefing," Quilliam Foundation, 11 September 2012. Available at http://www.quilliamfoundation.org/publications/free-publications/ (accessed on 10 September 2012); Ghaith Abdul-Ahad, "Al-Qaida Turns Tide for Rebels in Battle for Eastern Syria," The Guardian, 30 July 2012. Available at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/30/al-qaida-rebels-battle-syria (accessed on 10 September 2012); and, Azmat Khan, "What is Al Qaeda Doing in Syria?" PBS Frontline,23 February 2012. Available at http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/syria-undercover/what-is-al Qaeda-doing-in-syria/ (accessed on 10 September 2012).Ibid.Bentoman, "The Jihadist Network in the Syrian Revolution"; Husain, "Syria; Why al Qaeda is Winning"; Neil MacFarquhar and Hwaida Saad, "As Syrian War Drags On, Jihadists Take Bigger Role," New York Times, 29 July 2012; Greg Miller and Joby Warrick, "In Syria Conflict, U.S. Struggles to Fill Intelligence Gaps," Washington Post, 23 July 2012; Radwan Mortada, "al Qaeda in Syria: New Leader at the Helm," al Akhbar English, 26 June 2012. Available at http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/8949 (accessed on 10 September 2012); Rod Nordland, "Al Qaeda Taking Deadly New Role in Syria Conflict," New York Times, 24 July 2012; Schmitt, "Sunni Extremists May Be Aiding al Qaeda's Ambitions in Syria, Analysts Say"; Justin Vela and Liz Sly, "In Syria, Group Suspected of Al Qaeda Links Gaining Prominence in War to Topple Assad," Washington Post, 19 August 2012; and Aaron Y. Zelin, "Foreign Fighters Trickle into the Syrian Rebellion," Washington Institute of Near East Policy, Policywatch 1950, 11 June 2012. Available at http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/foreign-fighters-trickle-into-the-syrian-rebellion (accessed on 10 September 2012).Bentoman, "The Jihadist Network in the Syrian Revolution."Ed Husain, "Al Qaeda's Specter in Syria," First Take—Council on Foreign Relations, 6 August 2012. Available at http://www.cfr.org/syria/al Qaedas-specter-syria/p28782 (accessed on 10 September 2012).See, for example, Iraqi Foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari's statement quoted in Associated Press, "Iraq Says Al-Qaida Fighters Flowing into Syria, Dangerous New Element in Fight against Assad," Washington Post, 5 July 2012; and, Rod Nordland, "al Qaeda Taking Deadly New Role in Syria Conflict, New York Times, 24 July 2012.Michael Schmidt and Eric Schmitt, "Leaving Iraq, U.S. Fears New Surge of Qaeda Terror," New York Times, 5 November 2011.US Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism 2011 (Washington, DC: US Department of State Publication, April 2012), pp. 98–100.See Rowan Scarborough, "Al Qaeda in Iraq Mounts Comeback," Washington Times, 4 March 2012.Bernard Gwertzman, "Iraq's 'Precarious' Future: Interview with Ned Parker," Council on Foreign Relations, 14 June 2012. Available at http://www.cfr.org/iraq/iraqs-precarious-future/p28510 (accessed on 10 September 2012).Yasir Ghazi and Rod Nordland, "Iraq Insurgents Kill at least 100 After Declaring New Offensive," New York Times, 23 July 2012.Reuters, "Car Bombs Kill 19 in Iraqi Capital," New York Times, 31 July 2012."ISI Leader Champions Mission, Calls for Support in First Audio Speech," 22 July 2012, text and translation provided by SITE Monitoring Service—Jihadist Threat.See the quote from Izzat al-Shahbandar, a senior aide to Iraqi President Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, in Nordland, "al Qaeda Taking Deadly New Role in Syria Conflict." See also, Greg Jaffe, "Iraq Attacks Raise Specter of Al Qaeda's Return," Washington Post, 23 July 2012; and "Al Qaeda Claims Responsibility for Attacks in Iraq," Reuters.com, 25 July 2012. Available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/25/us-iraq-violence-alqaeda-idUSBRE86O0AN20120725Robin Simcox, "The Sunni Terror Threat Beyond Iraq," Wall Street Journal, 1 August 2012.As-Shahab Media present "Go Forward O Lions of Sham" by al-Amir Ayman al-Zawahiri, 12 February 2012, on Internet Archive. Available at http://archive.org/details/go4forwardsham_sahab (accessed on 10 September 2012)."al-Qa'ida After the Arab Spring: Struggle for Relevance in a Changing Context," unpublished paper, July 2012.As one analyst of this fragmentation phenomenon wrote in his study of the dissident Republican movement: "The difficulties faced by [Police Service of Northern Ireland Chief Constable Hugh] Orde and his men, as they attempted to frustrate the ambitions of the militants, were doubtless increased by the amorphous nature of the enemy they faced. … The boundaries across these entities often appeared fluid: it was not always easy to tell where one ended and another began. The problems of identification were further compounded by the readiness of the groups to utilise names of convenience for 'false flag' operations. … The consequences of this phenomenon were at first sight somewhat contradictory: a tendency towards both ever 'more fragmentation' and, at the same time, a greater capacity for co-operation and group-overlap at the local level." Martyn Frampton, Legion of the Rearguard: Dissident Irish Republicanism (Dublin & Portland, OR: Irish Academic Press, 2011), pp. 246–247.Douglas Farah and Dana Priest, "Bin Laden Son Plays Key Role in al Qaeda," Washington Post, 14 October 2003.Hossam Fadl, "Names Released of Islamists Pardoned by Morsy," al-Masry al-Youm/Egypt Independent, 31 July 2012. Available at http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/names-released-islamists-pardoned-morsy (accessed on 10 September 2012).