Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction
1987; University of Chicago Press; Volume: 95; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1086/261473
ISSN1537-534X
AutoresVictor Zarnowitz, Louis A. Lambros,
Tópico(s)Forecasting Techniques and Applications
ResumoPrevious articleNext article No AccessConsensus and Uncertainty in Economic PredictionVictor Zarnowitz and Louis A. LambrosVictor Zarnowitz and Louis A. LambrosPDFPDF PLUS Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 95, Number 3Jun., 1987 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/261473 Views: 30Total views on this site Citations: 263Citations are reported from Crossref Copyright 1987 The University of ChicagoPDF download Crossref reports the following articles citing this article:Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore, Empirical Economics 31 (Oct 2022).https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02311-8Joscha Beckmann, Sharada Nia Davidson, Gary Koop, Rainer Schüssler Cross-Country Uncertainty Spillovers: Evidence from International Survey Data, Journal of International Money and Finance 73 (Oct 2022): 102760.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102760Nicolas Himounet Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks, International Economics 170 (Aug 2022): 1–31.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2022.02.010Yongchen Zhao Uncertainty and disagreement of inflation expectations: Evidence from household‐level qualitative survey responses, Journal of Forecasting 41, no.44 (Dec 2021): 810–828.https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2834Daniel Soques TIMING AND SIGNALS OF MONETARY REGIME SWITCHING, Macroeconomic Dynamics 26, no.44 (Aug 2020): 885–919.https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100520000395IVO WELCH The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd, The Journal of Finance 77, no.33 (Apr 2022): 1489–1527.https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13128Paolo Gambetti, Francesco Roccazzella, Frédéric Vrins Meta-Learning Approaches for Recovery Rate Prediction, Risks 10, no.66 (Jun 2022): 124.https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10060124Nigel Meade, Ciaran Driver Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth, International Journal of Forecasting 118 (Apr 2022).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.02.005Andrea Fracasso, Angelo Secchi, Chiara Tomasi Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty, Journal of Comparative Economics 50, no.11 (Mar 2022): 135–152.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2021.07.001MICHAEL P. CLEMENTS Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 54, no.2-32-3 (Nov 2021): 537–568.https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12867Ahsan Habib, Mabel D Costa Cost stickiness and stock price crash risk, Accounting & Finance 41 (Feb 2022).https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12935Goran Buturac Measurement of Economic Forecast Accuracy: A Systematic Overview of the Empirical Literature, Journal of Risk and Financial Management 15, no.11 (Dec 2021): 1.https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15010001Alexander Glas, Matthias Hartmann Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys, Quantitative Economics 13, no.33 (Jan 2022): 979–1022.https://doi.org/10.3982/QE1703Florian Heiss, Michael Hurd, Maarten van Rooij, Tobias Rossmann, Joachim Winter Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations, Journal of Econometrics 38 (Jan 2022).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.09.010Andreas Dibiasi, David Iselin Measuring Knightian uncertainty, Empirical Economics 61, no.44 (Aug 2021): 2113–2141.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-02106-3Olivier Armantier, Gizem Koşar, Rachel Pomerantz, Daphné Skandalis, Kyle Smith, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 189 (Sep 2021): 443–469.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.036Jeffrey Sheen, Ben Zhe Wang Measuring macroeconomic disagreement – A mixed frequency approach, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 189 (Sep 2021): 547–566.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.07.011Yoichi Tsuchiya Crises, market shocks, and herding behavior in stock price forecasts, Empirical Economics 61, no.22 (Jun 2020): 919–945.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01894-4Ronald Huisman, Nico L. Van der Sar, Remco C.J. Zwinkels Volatility expectations and disagreement, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 188 (Aug 2021): 379–393.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.05.020Hedi Benamar, Thierry Foucault, Clara Vega, Itay Goldstein Demand for Information, Uncertainty, and the Response of U.S. Treasury Securities to News, The Review of Financial Studies 34, no.77 (Jun 2020): 3403–3455.https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa072Oscar Claveria Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys, Empirica 48, no.22 (Apr 2020): 483–505.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-020-09479-1Michael P. Clements Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? The US SPF GDP growth and inflation forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting 37, no.22 (Apr 2021): 634–646.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.003Eddie Casey Are professional forecasters overconfident?, International Journal of Forecasting 37, no.22 (Apr 2021): 716–732.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.09.002Oscar Claveria On the Aggregation of Survey-Based Economic Uncertainty Indicators Between Different Agents and Across Variables, Journal of Business Cycle Research 17, no.11 (Nov 2020): 1–26.https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-020-00050-2You Li, Anthony Tay The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion, Journal of Macroeconomics 67 (Mar 2021): 103266.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103266Markus Eyting, Patrick Schmidt Belief Elicitation with Multiple Point Predictions, European Economic Review 5 (Mar 2021): 103700.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103700ROBERT RICH, JOSEPH TRACY A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 53, no.11 (Sep 2020): 233–253.https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12728SEBASTIANO MANZAN Are Professional Forecasters Bayesian?, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (Dec 2020): 104045.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2020.104045Erik Hjalmarsson, Pär Österholm Heterogeneity in households’ expectations of housing prices – evidence from micro data, Journal of Housing Economics 50 (Dec 2020): 101731.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2020.101731Natalia Levenko Rounding bias in forecast uncertainty, Research in Economics 74, no.44 (Dec 2020): 277–291.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2020.08.001Mao He, Juncheng Huang, Hongquan Zhu Heterogeneous beliefs and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: evidence from China, China Finance Review International 11, no.11 (Aug 2020): 124–141.https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-07-2019-0128Saygin Sahinoz, Evren Erdogan Cosar Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy, Empirica 47, no.22 (Nov 2018): 365–387.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-018-9424-8Alexander Glas Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage, International Journal of Forecasting 36, no.22 (Apr 2020): 607–627.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.07.010Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, Tullio Jappelli, Maarten van Rooij Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving, The Review of Economics and Statistics 102, no.11 (Mar 2020): 148–161.https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00819Guido Schultefrankenfeld Appropriate monetary policy and forecast disagreement at the FOMC, Empirical Economics 58, no.11 (Sep 2019): 223–255.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01755-9Alexander Glas, Matthias Hartmann Uncertainty Measures from Partially Rounded Probabilistic Forecast Surveys, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2020).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3522499Ivo Welch Retail Raw: Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd and the COVID Crisis, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2020).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3696066Michael Ryan An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence From New Zealand, SSRN Electronic Journal 31 (Jan 2020).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3744456Lucas Marc Fuhrer, Basil Guggenheim, Matthias Jüttner A survey-based estimation of the Swiss franc forward term premium, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 155, no.11 (Jul 2019).https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-019-0034-6Michael P. Clements Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?, International Journal of Forecasting 35, no.44 (Oct 2019): 1240–1249.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.11.009Paolo Gambetti, Geneviève Gauthier, Frédéric Vrins Recovery rates: Uncertainty certainly matters, Journal of Banking & Finance 106 (Sep 2019): 371–383.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.07.010OLESYA GRISHCHENKO, SARAH MOUABBI, JEAN‐PAUL RENNE Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 51, no.55 (May 2019): 1053–1096.https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12622Eda Gülşen, Hakan Kara Measuring inflation uncertainty in Turkey, Central Bank Review 19, no.22 (Jun 2019): 33–43.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.06.003Saskia ter Ellen, Willem F.C. Verschoor, Remco C.J. Zwinkels Agreeing on disagreement: Heterogeneity or uncertainty?, Journal of Financial Markets 44 (Jun 2019): 17–30.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2019.02.002Oscar Claveria, Enric Monte, Salvador Torra Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Indicator of Discrepancy Among Experts’ Expectations, Social Indicators Research 143, no.11 (Aug 2018): 95–114.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-1984-2Michael P. Clements Working with the Forecast Data, (Dec 2018): 25–35.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-97223-7_3Michael P. Clements Behavioural Models of Expectations Formation, (Dec 2018): 145–172.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-97223-7_8Christian Conrad, Matthias Hartmann On the determinants of long-run inflation uncertainty: Evidence from a panel of 17 developed economies, European Journal of Political Economy 56 (Jan 2019): 233–250.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.09.002Nima Nonejad , Scottish Journal of Political Economy 66, no.22 ( 2019): 246.https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12170Jeffrey Sheen, Ben Zhe Wang Understanding Macroeconomic Disagreement, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2019).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3364891Paolo Gambetti, Genevieve Gauthier, Frederic Daniel Vrins Recovery Rates: Uncertainty Certainly Matters, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2019).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3366889Andreas Dibiasi, David Iselin Measuring Knightian Uncertainty, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2019).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3391117Stephan Florig, Maxim Ulrich, Sven Schoemer A Macro-Finance Term Structure Model for Bond and Dividend Discount Rates, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2019).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3394850Klodiana Istrefi, Sarah Mouabbi Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis, Journal of International Money and Finance 88 (Nov 2018): 296–313.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.07.015Paul Goodwin, Brent Moritz, Enno Siemsen Forecast Decisions, (Oct 2018): 433–458.https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119138341.ch12Sami Keskek, Senyo Y. Tse Does Forecast Bias Affect Financial Analysts’ Market Influence?, Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 33, no.44 (Sep 2016): 601–623.https://doi.org/10.1177/0148558X16665965Min Zhang, Haoran Xu, Lijing Tong, Tingting Ye International evidence on economic policy uncertainty and asymmetric adjustment of audit pricing: Big 4 versus non-big 4 auditors, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 45, no.5-65-6 (Jan 2018): 728–756.https://doi.org/10.1111/jbfa.12299Charles F. Manski Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 32 (May 2018): 411–471.https://doi.org/10.1086/696061Mariusz Kapuściński, Ewa Stanisławska Measuring bank funding costs in the analysis of interest rate pass-through: Evidence from Poland, Economic Modelling 70 (Apr 2018): 288–300.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.11.009Michael P. Clements Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative?, International Journal of Forecasting 34, no.22 (Apr 2018): 181–198.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.10.004Mustafa Haluk Güler, Tandoğan Polat New Measures for Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement from Treasury Auctions: Alternative to Surveys, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 54, no.44 (Jan 2018): 881–900.https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1268527Oscar Claveria, Enric Monte, Salvador Torra Proxying Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Approach to Measure Disagreement Among Qualitative Expectations, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3139556Claire Giordano, Marco Marinucci, Andrea Silvestrini Firmss and Householdss Investment in Italy: The Role of Credit Constraints and Other Macro Factors, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3160601Hedi Benamar, Thierry Foucault, Clara Vega Demand for Information, Macroeconomic Uncertainty, and the Response of U.S. Treasury Securities to News, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3188250Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, M. Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3191123Alexander Glas, Matthias Hartmann Overconfidence Versus Rounding in Survey-Based Density Forecasts, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3202810Tsu-ting Lin The Role of Uncertainty in Jobless Recoveries, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3256724Robert W. Rich, Joseph Tracy A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3259652Helmut Herwartz, Hannes Rohloff Less Bang for the Buck? Assessing the Role of Inflation Uncertainty for U.S. Monetary Policy Transmission in a Data Rich Environment, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3289962Carola Binder Communication without Consensus: Forward Guidance, Central Bank Projections, and Private Sector Expectations, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3294729Alexander Glas Five Dimensions of the Uncertainty-Disagreement Linkage, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3295125Yoshiyuki Arata, Yosuke Kimura, Hiroki Murakami Aggregate implications of lumpy investment under heterogeneity and uncertainty: a model of collective behavior, Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review 14, no.22 (May 2017): 311–333.https://doi.org/10.1007/s40844-017-0074-5Jordan Tong, Daniel Feiler A Behavioral Model of Forecasting: Naive Statistics on Mental Samples, Management Science 63, no.1111 (Nov 2017): 3609–3627.https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2537Mehdi Shoja, Ehsan S. Soofi Uncertainty, information, and disagreement of economic forecasters, Econometric Reviews 36, no.6-96-9 (Mar 2017): 796–817.https://doi.org/10.1080/07474938.2017.1307577Carola C. Binder Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations, Journal of Monetary Economics 90 (Oct 2017): 1–12.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.06.001Diego Ferreira, Andreza Aparecida Palma Assessing the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: further evidences for Latin America, Journal of Economic Studies 44, no.44 (Sep 2017): 506–517.https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-04-2016-0066Yun Shin Lee, Enno Siemsen Task Decomposition and Newsvendor Decision Making, Management Science 63, no.1010 (Sep 2017): 3226–3245.https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2521Pilar Poncela, Eva Senra Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area, Empirical Economics 53, no.11 (Sep 2016): 165–182.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1181-6Fabian Krüger Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms, Empirical Economics 53, no.11 (Jan 2017): 235–246.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1228-3Barbara Rossi, Tatevik Sekhposyan Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries, Empirical Economics 53, no.11 (Apr 2017): 41–62.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1248-zSteffen R. Henzel, Elisabeth Wieland INTERNATIONAL SYNCHRONIZATION AND CHANGES IN LONG-TERM INFLATION UNCERTAINTY, Macroeconomic Dynamics 21, no.44 (Apr 2016): 918–946.https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100515000772Hikaru Saijo The uncertainty multiplier and business cycles, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 78 (May 2017): 1–25.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2017.02.008Gaston Gelos, Yulia Ustyugova Inflation responses to commodity price shocks – How and why do countries differ?, Journal of International Money and Finance 72 (Apr 2017): 28–47.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.10.001Steffen R. Henzel, Malte Rengel DIMENSIONS OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: A COMMON FACTOR ANALYSIS, Economic Inquiry 55, no.22 (Nov 2016): 843–877.https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12422Harrison Hong, David Sraer, Jialin Yu Inflation Bets on the Long Bond, The Review of Financial Studies 30, no.33 (Dec 2016): 900–947.https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw090C. John McDermott Policy Uncertainty from a Central Bank Perspective, Australian Economic Review 50, no.11 (Feb 2017): 103–106.https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12202Matthias Hartmann, Helmut Herwartz, Maren Ulm A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty, International Journal of Forecasting 33, no.11 (Jan 2017): 76–89.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.08.005Qianqian Du, Fang Yu, Xiaoyun Yu Standing Out from the Crowd: The Real Effects of Outliers, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2017).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2778406Klodiana Istrefi, Sarah Mouabbi Subjective Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: A Cross-Country Analysis, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2017).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2908197Lindsey A. Gallo The More We Know About Fundamentals, the Less We Agree on Price: Evidence from Earnings Announcements, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2017).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2932459Olesya V. Grishchenko, Sarah Mouabbi, Jean-Paul Renne The Joint Dynamics of U.S. And Euro-Area Inflation Rates: Expectations and Timevarying Uncertainty, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2017).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2952315Michael P. Clements Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2017).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3005943Luiz F. F. Felix, Roman Krrussl, Philip A. Stork Predictable Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2017).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3008976Jeffrey Sheen, Ben Zhe Wang Estimating Macroeconomic Uncertainty from Surveys - A Mixed Frequency Approach, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2017).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3020697Tsvetomira Tsenova Monetary Policy, Heterogeneous Expectations and Structural Uncertainty, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2017).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3043037Alexander Glas, Matthias Hartmann Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Journal of Empirical Finance 39 (Dec 2016): 215–228.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.05.001Maurizio Bovi The tale of two expectations, Quality & Quantity 50, no.66 (Nov 2015): 2677–2705.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-015-0283-0Fabian Krüger, Ingmar Nolte Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts, Journal of Banking & Finance 72 (Nov 2016): S172–S186.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.05.007Tarek Atalla, Fred Joutz, Axel Pierru Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect volatility? Evidence from the ECB surveys, International Journal of Forecasting 32, no.44 (Oct 2016): 1178–1192.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.09.009Philippe Andrade, Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench Fundamental disagreement, Journal of Monetary Economics 83 (Oct 2016): 106–128.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.08.007Damjan Pfajfar, Blaž Žakelj Uncertainty in forecasting inflation and monetary policy design: Evidence from the laboratory, International Journal of Forecasting 32, no.33 (Jul 2016): 849–864.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.005Fabian Baetje, Karola Friedrici Does cross-sectional forecast dispersion proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty? New empirical evidence, Economics Letters 143 (Jun 2016): 38–43.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.03.014Joshua Abel, Robert Rich, Joseph Song, Joseph Tracy The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Journal of Applied Econometrics 31, no.33 (Jan 2015): 533–550.https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2430Ulrike Malmendier, Stefan Nagel Learning from Inflation Experiences, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131, no.11 (Oct 2015): 53–87.https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjv037Christoph Lehmann, Daniel Tillich Consensus Information and Consensus Rating, (Feb 2016): 357–362.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28697-6_50Kausik Chaudhuri, Minjoo Kim, Yongcheol Shin Forecasting distributions of inflation rates: the functional auto-regressive approach, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 179, no.11 (Mar 2015): 65–102.https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12109Klodiana Istrefi, Sarah Mouabbi Subjective Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: An International Panel Approach, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2016).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2731601Barbara Rossi, Tatevik Sekhposyan, Matthieu Soupre Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2016).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2780213Saskia ter Ellen, Willem F. C. Verschoor, Remco C.J. Zwinkels Agreeing on Disagreement: Heterogeneity or Uncertainty?, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2016).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2826625Mehdi Shoja, Ehsan S. Soofi Uncertainty, Information, and Disagreement of Economic Forecasters, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2016).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2853147Yun Liao, Jacky Yuk-chow So Deciphering Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A 3-Dimensional View, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2016).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2876203Olesya V. Grishchenko, Sarah Mouabbi, Jean-Paul Renne The Joint Dynamics of U.S. and Euro-Area Inflation Expectations with Time-Varying Uncertainty, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2016).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2877174Jan-Christoph Rülke, Maria Silgoner, Julia Wörz Herding behavior of business cycle forecasters, International Journal of Forecasting 32, no.11 (Jan 2016): 23–33.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.02.004Manuel Bonucchi, Monica Ferrari, Stefania Tomasini, Tsvetomira Tsenova Tax policy, investment decisions and economic growth, Revue de l'OFCE N° 141, no.55 (Dec 2015): 225–262.https://doi.org/10.3917/reof.141.0225Gianna Boero, Jeremy Smith, Kenneth F. Wallis The Measurement and Characteristics of Professional Forecasters' Uncertainty, Journal of Applied Econometrics 30, no.77 (Jun 2014): 1029–1046.https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2400Rianne Legerstee, Philip Hans Franses Does Disagreement Amongst Forecasters Have Predictive Value?, Journal of Forecasting 34, no.44 (Mar 2015): 290–302.https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2330Vasyl Golosnoy, Yarema Okhrin Using information quality for volatility model combinations, Quantitative Finance 15, no.66 (Feb 2013): 1055–1073.https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2012.739728Geoff Kenny, Thomas Kostka, Federico Masera Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis, Empirical Economics 48, no.33 (Jun 2014): 1203–1231.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-014-0815-9Tsvetomira Tsenova ARE LONG-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS WELL-ANCHORED? EVIDENCE FROM THE EURO AREA AND THE UNITED STATES, Bulletin of Economic Research 67, no.11 (Nov 2012): 65–82.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8586.2012.00474.xChristoph Grooe Steffen Uncertainty Shocks and Non-Fundamental Debt Crises: An Ambiguity Approach, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2015).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2602716Marcello Pericoli, Giovanni Veronese Forecaster Heterogeneity, Surprises and Financial Markets, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2015).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2687111Michael P. Clements Forecasters' Disagreement About How the Economy Operates, and the Role of Long-Run Relationships, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2015).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2695820Jing Liao, Martin R. Young Macroeconomic Uncertainty, State Ownership, and Board Size in China, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2015).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2729508Christian Grimme, Steffen R. Henzel, Elisabeth Wieland Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement, Empirical Economics 47, no.44 (Jan 2014): 1497–1523.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-013-0789-zRobin C. Sickles, Jiaqi Hao, Chenjun Shang Panel data and productivity measurement: an analysis of Asian productivity trends, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies 12, no.33 (Jul 2014): 211–231.https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2014.931428Michael P. Clements Forecast Uncertainty— Ex Ante and Ex Post : U.S. Inflation and Output Growth, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 32, no.22 (May 2014): 206–216.https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2013.859618Geoff Kenny, Thomas Kostka, Federico Masera How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?, Journal of Forecasting 33, no.33 (Mar 2014): 163–185.https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2281Malte Knüppel Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors, International Journal of Forecasting 30, no.22 (Apr 2014): 257–267.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.08.004Michael P. Clements US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968-2010, Journal of Forecasting 33, no.11 (Dec 2013): 1–14.https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2277Glenn W. Harrison, Richard D. Phillips Subjective Beliefs and Statistical Forecasts of Financial Risks: The Chief Risk Officer Project, (Jan 2014): 163–202.https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137447623_8Michael P. Clements, Ana Beatriz Galvvo Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2014).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2436810Yun Liao Inflation Forecast Literature Review 1969-2013, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2014).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2444121Manuel Bonucchi, Monica Ferrari, Stefania Tomasini, Tsvetomira Tsenova Tax Policy, Investment Decisions and Economic Growth, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2014).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2463693Harrison G. Hong, David Alexandre Sraer, Jialin Yu Inflation Bets on the Long Bond, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2014).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2465451Ludovic Gauvin, Cameron McLoughlin, Dennis Reinhardt Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets Evidence from Capital Flows, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2014).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2502029Christian Conrad, Matthias Hartmann Cross-Sectional Evidence on the Relation between Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic Conditions and Low-Frequency Inflation Uncertainty, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2014).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2511171Philippe Andrade, Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench Fundamental Disagreement, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2014).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2531343Nicole Branger, Julian Thimme Ambiguous Long Run Risks, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2014).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2536345Stefania D'Amico, Athanasios Orphanides Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2014).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2539715Ricardo Reis Central Bank Design, Journal of Economic Perspectives 27, no.44 (Nov 2013): 17–44.https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.27.4.17Victoria Galsband Good times, bad times: inflation uncertainty and equity returns, Quantitative Finance 13, no.99 (Sep 2013): 1331–1342.https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2013.789545Stephen G. Sapp, Ingrid Lo Pretrade and Posttrade Transparency, (Aug 2013): 345–363.https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118681145.ch19Patricio A. Jaramillo, Juan Carlos Piantini Multimodality and mixture distributions: an application to a Survey of Economic Expectations, Applied Economics 45, no.1414 (May 2013): 1801–1817.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.639738Rüdiger Bachmann, Steffen Elstner, Eric R Sims Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5, no.22 (Apr 2013): 217–249.https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.5.2.217Christian D. Dick, Maik Schmeling, Andreas Schrimpf Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia, European Economic Review 58 (Feb 2013): 58–80.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.11.005Thomas Post, Katja Hanewald Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 86 (Feb 2013): 200–220.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2012.11.012Ludovic Gauvin, Cameron McLoughlin, Dennis Reinhardt Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2013).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2273452Philippe Andrade, Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench Noisy Information and Fundamental Disagreement, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2013).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2377025Okan Duru, Emrah Bulut, Shigeru Yoshida A fuzzy extended DELPHI method for adjustment of statistical time series prediction: An empirical study on dry bulk freight market case, Expert Systems with Applications 39, no.11 (Jan 2012): 840–848.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2011.07.082Thomas Post, Katja Hanewald Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2012).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn
Referência(s)