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Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

2015; American Association for the Advancement of Science; Volume: 347; Issue: 6227 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1126/science.aaa4339

1095-9203

Hans Heesterbeek, Roy M. Anderson, Viggo Andreasen, Shweta Bansal, Daniela De Angelis, Christopher Dye, Ken Eames, W. John Edmunds, Simon D. W. Frost, Sebastian Funk, T. Déirdre Hollingsworth, Thomas House, Valerie Isham, Petra Klepac, Justin Lessler, Alun L. Lloyd, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Denis Mollison, Lorenzo Pellis, Juliet R. C. Pulliam, M. G. Roberts, Cécile Viboud,

Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research

Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases The spread of infectious diseases can be unpredictable. With the emergence of antibiotic resistance and worrying new viruses, and with ambitious plans for global eradication of polio and the elimination of malaria, the stakes have never been higher. Anticipation and measurement of the multiple factors involved in infectious disease can be greatly assisted by mathematical methods. In particular, modeling techniques can help to compensate for imperfect knowledge, gathered from large populations and under difficult prevailing circumstances. Heesterbeek et al. review the development of mathematical models used in epidemiology and how these can be harnessed to develop successful control strategies and inform public health policy. Science , this issue 10.1126/science.aaa4339