Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

China’s New Energy-Security Debate

2010; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 52; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/00396338.2010.494881

1468-2699

Andrew Kennedy,

Environmental Impact and Sustainability

Abstract China's debate over what 'energy security' is and how it can be achieved has evolved considerably over the past decade. raditionally, Chinese officials and analysts have been most worried about China's mounting oil imports, and they have expressed considerable wariness of international energy markets and institutions. This narrow and relatively nationalistic view of China's energy-security challenge has been challenged on several different fronts, however, particularly in the past five years. Prominent analysts now call for a more positive approach to international markets and institutions, and some argue that external dependence is a less important energy security challenge than the shortcomings of China's own energy system. China's broadening debate over energy security represents an opportunity for the outside world as it engages China on energy and climate change in the years ahead. Acknowledgements The author gratefully acknowledges comments, criticism and assistance from Joshua Busby, Thomas Christensen, Erica Downs, Andrew Erickson, Michael Glosny, Stuart Harris, Iain Johnston, Donald Keyser, Alexander Liebman, Edward Steinfeld, Haibin Wang and Andrew Winner. He also thanks the participants in the China and the World Workshop and the Fairbank Center Director's Seminar at Harvard University in April 2009. Notes On the relative contribution of the United States and China to oil-demand growth in recent years, see Kenneth Lieberthal and Mikkal Herberg, 'China's Search for Energy Security: Implications for U.S. Policy', NBR Analysis, vol. 17, no. 1, April 2006, pp. 19–20. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2009, Annual Report to Congress, pp. 17–18. Elisabeth Rosenthal, 'China Clearly Overtakes U.S. as Leading Emitter of Climate-Warming Gases', International Herald Tribune, 13 June 2008, http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/13/business/emit.php. Renmin Ribao electronic database. Lieberthal and Herberg, 'China's Search for Energy Security', pp. 13–16. Erica Downs, 'The Chinese Energy Security Debate', China Quarterly, no. 177, March 2004, p. 23. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009, pp. 8, 11. World Energy Outlook 2009, pp. 81, 84. Ibid., pp. 366, 429. Ibid., pp. 90–91. For examples, see Dou Chao, 'Pojie Shiyou Kunju [Analyzing and Explaining the Oil Predicament]', Jianzai Wuqi [Shipborne Weapons], no. 12, 2008, pp. 10–13; Ni Jianmin, Guojia Nengyuan Anquan Baogao [Report on National Energy Security] (Renmin Chubanshe, 2005), pp. 151–2. Ni Jianmin was head of the Chinese Communist Party's Policy Research Department when the report was published. No affiliation was given for Dou Chao. For a more extended discussion of this concern, see Andrew Erickson and Lyle Goldstein, 'Gunboats for China's New "Grand Canals"? Probing the Intersection of Beijing's Naval and Oil Security Policies', Naval War College Review, vol. 62, no. 2, Spring 2009, pp. 55–7. On the motivations behind the national oil companies' overseas expansion, and their complex relationship with the Chinese government, see Trevor Houser, 'The Roots of Chinese Oil Investment Abroad', Asia Policy, no. 5, January 2008, pp. 141–66. Author's interviews with energy specialists at state-run think tanks and the National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing, March 2009. For an example of the traditional view, see Zhang E, 'Shiyou Bianju [The Oil Crisis]', Zhongguo Shiyou Shihua [China Petrochem], 15 October 2008, p. 22. For an example of a more market-friendly view, see Zha Daojiong, 'Nengyuan Yilai Jinkou Bukepa [Energy Import Dependence is not Scary]', Shijie Zhishi [World Affairs], no. 9, 2006, pp. 47–9. For an argument that market-friendly analysts will ultimately prevail in this debate, see Alex Liebman, 'China's Energy Security in Historical Perspective: Natural Resources and the Rise of the United States, Japan, and China', paper delivered at the ISA Annual Convention, New York, February 2009, pp. 29–46. Chen Weidong, 'Maoyi Nengli: Guoyou Gongsi de Biran Xuanze [Trading Capability: State-Owned Energy Companies' Inevitable Choice]', Zhongguo Shiyou Shihua [China Petrochem], 1 April 2006, p. 73. Richard McGregor, 'Chinese Diplomacy "Hijacked" by Big Companies', Financial Times, 16 March 2008. Erica Downs, 'China's "New" Energy Administration', China Business Review, November–December 2008, p. 43. On these deals, see Stuart Elliott and Naubet Bisenov, 'Chinese Expand Presence in Kazakhstan's Oil Sector', Platt's Oilgram News, 26 November 2009; Nadezhda Roumiantseva, 'Russia and China Finally Sign Off on Oil-for-Loans Agreement', International Oil Daily, 22 April 2009. Note that China did not apparently fix a price for the Russian oil, but is expected to pay the market price at the time of delivery. See Wenran Jiang, 'China Makes Strides in Energy "Go Out" Strategy', China Brief, vol. 9, no. 15, 23 July 2009, p. 8. 'China, Myanmar Sign Pipe Deal', International Oil Daily, 30 March 2009. Erica Downs, 'China's Energy Rise', unpublished manuscript, 17 June 2009, p. 17. For a recent overview of China's pipeline projects, see Andrew Erickson, 'Pipe Dream: Beijing Seeks Land and Sea Energy Security', Jane's Intelligence Review, August 2009, pp. 54–5. For a broader discussion of pipelines in Asia, see Bernard D. Cole, Sea Lanes and Pipelines: Energy Security in Asia (Westport, CT: Praeger Security International, 2008), pp. 52–72. Author's interviews with energy specialists at state-run think tanks, Beijing, March 2009. For a public and fairly pessimistic analysis of pipeline security, see Zhao Hongtu, 'Maliujia Kunju yu Zhongguo Nengyuan Anquan Zai Sikao [Rethinking the Malacca Dilemma and China's Energy Security]', Xiandai Guoji Guanxi [Contemporary International Relations], no. 6, 2007, pp. 40–41. Ibid., p. 41. See for example Ma Yujia, 'China– Russia Loan-for-Oil Negotiations Stall on Price', 19 February 2009, http://www.china.org.cn/business/news/2009-02/19/content_17304691.htm. China currently has much greater latitude to meet its demand for natural-gas imports through pipeline deliveries, given its lesser import dependence in gas and the recent opening of the Turkmenistan–China pipeline. See Stephen Blank, 'The Strategic Implications of the Turkmenistan–China Pipeline Project', China Brief, vol. 10, no. 3, 4 February 2010, p. 11. Phil Taylor, 'Energy Policy: IEA Chief Calls for Expanded Dialogue with China, India', E&E News, 13 February 2009; 'IEA's Tanaka Urges OPEC to Keep Investing', Platts Oilgram News , 28 April 2009. Authors interviews with energy specialists at state-run think tanks, Beijing, March 2009. Note that IEA requires its members to have national and commercial reserves sufficient to meet at least 90 days of net import demand. While visiting Beijing in July of this year, IEA head Tanaka stated that China's current petroleum reserves, including commercial stocks, were sufficient to meet 86 days of net imports. Chinese officials promptly disputed this claim, saying it was much too high, and Tanaka later noted that the data were 'unverifiable'. See 'Chinese Official Denies 86 Days Oil Reserve Claim by IEA', Asia Pulse, 6 July 2009; and 'IEA to Pursue China, India, and Russia Ties', Platts Oilgram News, 9 September 2009. For enthusiastic endorsements of China joining the IEA, see Zhao Hongtu, 'Guoji Nengyuan Zuzhi yu Duobian Nengyuan Waijiao [International Energy Organisations and Multilateral Energy Diplomacy]', Guoji Shiyou Jingji [International Petroleum Economics], no. 10, 2008, pp. 12–17; Wang Lianhe, 'Zhongguo yu Guoji Nengyuan Jigou – Yi Xiang Guifan Yanjiu [China and the International Energy Agency – a Normative Analysis]', Guoji Guancha [International Survey], no. 4, 2009, pp. 11–17. On Chinese public support for acquiring aircraft carriers, see Robert Ross, 'China's Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response', International Security, vol. 34, no. 2, Fall 2009, pp. 60–65. For more discussion of the possibilities in this regard, see Nan Li and Christopher Weuve, 'China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions: An Update', Naval War College Review, vol. 63, no. 1, Winter 2010, pp. 13–32. For more on these arguments, see Gabriel B. Collins, Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, 'Chinese Naval Analysts Consider the Energy Question', in Gabriel B. Collins, Andrew W. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein and William S. Murray (eds), China's Energy Strategy: The Impact of Beijing's Maritime Policies (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2008), pp. 299–335. Yao Wenhuai, 'Jianshe Qiangda Haijun Weihu Woguo Haiyang Zhanlue Liyi' [Build a Powerful Navy to Protect Our Nation's Strategic Maritime Interests], Guofang [National Defense], no. 7, 2007, p. 6. Ross, 'China's Naval Nationalism', p. 75. Chu Shulong and Lin Xinzhu, 'Zhongguo Junli, Ganchao Meiguo Bushi Mubiao [China's Military Strength, Overtaking the US Is Not the Goal]', Huanqiu Shibao [Global Times], 26 June 2008. Zhao Hongtu, 'Maliujia Kunju yu Zhongguo Nengyuan Anquan Zai Sikao [Rethinking the Malacca Dilemma and China's Energy Security]', Xiandai Guoji Guanxi [Contemporary International Relations], no. 6, 2007, pp. 36–8. The China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations produces reports for China's top leadership and plays a role in the Chinese government similar to that played by the CIA's Directorate of Intelligence in the United States. Notably, a recent study by scholars at the US Naval War College concurs with many of Zhao's points. See Gabriel B. Collins and William S. Murray, 'No Oil for the Lamps of China?' in Collins et al., China's Energy Strategy, 387–407. Michael S. Chase and Andrew S. Erickson, 'Changes in Beijing's Approach to Overseas Basing?', China Brief, vol. 9, no. 19, 24 September 2009, pp. 8–11. Author's interview with security specialist at state-run think tank, Beijing, March 2009. For an overview of the diversity of views in this regard, see Erickson and Goldstein, 'Gunboats for China's New "Grand Canals"?', pp. 64–6. Chen Xinhua, 'Nengyuan Anquan Yao Zhongshi Neibu Yinsu, Qiangdiao Zhengce Tizhi Baozhan [Energy Security Must Attach Importance to Internal Factors and Stress the Safeguarding of the Policy System]', Zhongguo Nengyuan [China Energy], no. 5, 2003, http://www.china5e.net/ dissertation/policy/20050718121240.html. Chen is currently vice-president of BP China and is affiliated with a variety of foreign and domestic institutions. Zhao Hongtu, 'Nengyuan Weiji: Shenhua yu Xianshi [The Energy Crisis: Myth and Reality]', Xiandai Guoji Guanxi [Contemporary International Relations], no. 9, 2007, p. 48. Zha Daojiong, 'Tuozhan Zhongguo Nengyuan Anquan Yanjiu de Keti Jichu [Expanding the Underlying Question in Research on China's Energy Security]', Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi [World Economics and Politics], no. 7, 2008, p. 80. See also Zha Daojiong, 'China's Energy Security: Domestic and International Issues', Survival, vol. 48, no. 1, Spring 2006, pp. 185–7. Zhu Chengzhang, 'Dianli Anquan Shi Zui Zhongyao de Nengyuan Anquan Wenti [Electric Power Security is the Most Important Energy-Security Problem]', Zhong Wai Nengyuan [Sino-Global Energy], vol. 13, no. 5, 2008, pp. 1–7. Emphasis added. For example, see Zhou Dadi, '2020 Nian Zhongguo Nengyuan Zhanlue Fenxi [Analysing China's Energy Strategy for 2020]', Zhongguo Gaoxiao Keji yu Chanyehua [Chinese University Technology Transfer], no. 11, 2007, p. 53. Dan Rosen and Trevor Houser, China Energy: A Guide for the Perplexed (Washington DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2007), p. 6. Paolo Hooke, 'China's Power Sector: Can Supply Meet Demand?', Asia Times, 7 October 2005, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/GJ07Cb01.html. See 'Analysis: Unreasonable Pricing Mechanism Triggers Seasonal "Coal Shortage" in China', Xinhua Economic News Service, 20 January 2010; and David Victor, 'Asia's Achilles Heel', Newsweek, 28 February 2008, http://www.newsweek.com/id/117004. Joseph Kahn and Jim Yardley, 'As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes', New York Times, 26 August 2007, p. A1. For a Chinese estimate of their country's casualties in Korea, see Xu Yan, Diyici Jiaoliang [The First Trial of Strength] (Beijing: China Broadcast Television Press, 1990), p. 322. Note that American estimates of China's casualties in Korea are much higher. This is not to suggest that there is no concern about climate change in China, merely that other energy-related problems are usually seen as more immediate priorities. There are, to be sure, some Chinese analysts who argue that mitigating climate change should be a high priority for Beijing. See, for example, Hu Angang and Guan Qingyou, 'Zhongguo Yingdui Quanqiu Qihou Bianhua de Si Da Kexingxing [Four Big and Feasible Things China Should Do to Combat Global Climate Change]', Qinghua Daxue Xuebao [Qinghua University Academic Journal], no. 6, 2008, pp. 120–32. For Chinese government assessments of the impact of climate change on China, see Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, 'White Paper: China's Policies and Actions on Climate Change', October 2008, Section II, http://www.gov.cn/english/2008-10/29/content_1134544.htm; and PRC National Development and Reform Commission, 'China's National Climate Change Program', June 2007, pp. 16–19, http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File188.pdf. For examples, see Zhang Liping, 'Meiguo Weihe Yao Zhengshou Tan Guanshui [Why the US Wants to Levy Carbon Tariffs]', Shishi Baogao [Report on Current Affairs], no. 9, 2009, pp. 59–60; Liu Dongguo, 'Ri Ou Mei Xin Nengyuan Zhanlue Ji Qi Dui Zhongguo de Tiaozhan [New Energy Strategies from Japan, Europe, and the US and their Challenges for China]', Xiandai Guoji Guanxi [Contemporary International Relations], no. 10, 2009, p. 38. Author's interviews with energy specialists at state-run think tanks, Beijing, March 2009; Xie Zhenhua, 'Speech at Beijing University's Guanghua School of Management', 9 January 2010, available in Chinese and English at http://www.chinafaqs.org/blog-posts/what-does-china-think-about-climate-change-and-copenhagen. Shi Hongtao, 'Nengyuan Anquan Zaoyu "Maliuya Kunju" ZhongRiHan Nengfou Xieshou [Energy Security Runs Up against the "Malacca Dilemma": Will China, Japan and Korea Cooperate?]', Zhongguo Qingnian Bao [China Youth Daily], 15 June 2004, http://business.sohu.com/2004/06/15/49/article220534904.shtml. See 'Hu Jintao's Address at the G8 Outreach Session', 17 July 2006, Constantine Palace, St Petersburg, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt/zyjh/t26461.htm. See for example 'Text of Chinese President's Speech at APEC Summit 22 Nov', BBC Worldwide Monitoring, 24 November 2008; and 'Wen Jiabao Zhuchi Zhaokai Guowuyuan Changwu Huiyi [Wen Jiabao Presides Over State Council Executive Meeting]', Renmin Ribao [People's Daily], 19 December 2008. Wen Jiabao reported in March that China reduced the energy intensity of its economy by 14.38% in the first four years of the 11th five-year plan. See Wen Jiabao, Report on the Work of the Government, delivered at the Third Session of the Eleventh National People's Congress, 5 March 2010, http://online.wsj.com/documents/WorkReportEnglish.pdf. Keith Bradsher, 'China Leading Global Race to Make Clean Energy', New York Times, 31 January 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/31/business/energy-environment/31renew.html. China also reiterated its 15% renewable energy target, as well as previously announced targets for increasing forest cover and forest volume. The text of the announcement is available on the website of China's State Council at http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2009-11/26/content_1474016.htm. See for example Michael Levi, 'Assessing China's Carbon-Cutting Proposal', Expert Brief, Council on Foreign Relations, 30 November 2009, http://www.cfr.org/publication/20862/assessing_chinas_carboncutting_proposal.html. 'Statement of the China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on China's Recently-Announced Carbon Intensity Target', Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 15 December 2009, http://china.lbl.gov/news/statement-china-energy-group-lawrence-berkeley-national-laboratory-china%E2%80%99s-recentlyannounced-c. 'Hu Jintao Qiangdiao Jinyibu Zuohao Yingdui Qihou Bianhua Ge Xiangmu Gongzuo [Hu Jintao Emphasises the Need to Successfully Complete Every Project in Climate Change Work]', Xinhua News Service, 23 February 2010, http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2010-02/23/content_13034269.htm; Stephen Chen, 'Politburo Set on Carbon Emissions Target; Party Leaders Rule out Further Debate on Goal Promised at Copenhagen Meeting', South China Morning Post, 26 February 2010. See for example Ross Garnaut, The Garnaut Climate Change Review (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), pp. 207, 209. On China's diplomatic manoeuvring at Copenhagen, see Kenneth Lieberthal, 'Climate Change and China's Global Responsibilities', John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution, 23 December 2009, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/1222_china_climate_lieberthal.aspx. On the pronounced weakness of China's energy-governance system, see Erica Downs, The Brookings Foreign Policy Studies Energy Security Series: China (Washington DC: The Brookings Institution, December 2006), pp. 16–24; and Edward A. Cunningham, 'China's Energy Governance: Perception and Reality', MIT Center for International Studies, Audit of the Conventional Wisdom Paper Series, March 2007. On the inadequacy of the National Energy Administration, see Downs, 'China's "New" Energy Administration', pp. 42–5. On the National Energy Commission, see Julian Wong, 'The National Energy Commission: Myth-busting the "New Energy Super Ministry"', 9 February 2010, http://greenleapforward.com/2010/02/04/the-national-energy-commission-myth-busting-the-new-energy-super-ministry/#more-260. On downstream oil prices, see 'China Explains Details of New Oil Pricing Mechanism', and 'Analysis: China's Product Oil Pricing Mechanism Needs to be More Sensitive to Markets', Xinhua Economic News Service, 10 May 2009 and 12 March 2010, respectively. Note that China was expected to unveil price reforms for natural gas earlier this year, but as of this writing had not done so. See 'China Delays Gas Price Reform on Dispute over Pricing Measures', Xinhua Economic News Service, 18 March 2010. On China's activities in the Gulf of Aden, see Gaye Christoffersen, 'China and Maritime Cooperation: Piracy in the Gulf of Aden', lecture delivered at the International Conference on Comprehensive Security in the Asia-Pacific Region, 30 November–1 December 2009, Tokyo, Japan, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?id=111041. David G. Victor and Linda Yueh, 'The New Energy Order: Managing Insecurities in the Twenty-first Century', Foreign Affairs, vol. 89, no. 1, January–February 2010, pp. 61–73. Note that the World Bank called for these and other measures in a 2007 report that was published in cooperation with China's State Council. See Noureddine Berrah, Fei Feng, Roland Priddle and Leiping Wang, Sustainable Energy in China: The Closing Window of Opportunity (Washington DC: World Bank, 2007), esp. pp. 163–5. On this point, see Alex Wang, 'Environmental Enforcement Ideas from Sunny California. Episode #1 – Give MEP Stronger Authority over Local Environmental Performance', Greenlaw, 23 February 2009, http://www.greenlaw.org.cn/enblog/?p=655. On China's fuel-economy standards, see Hongyan H. Oliver, Kelly Sims Gallagher, Donglian Tian and Jinhua Zhang, 'China's Fuel Economy Standards for Passenger Vehicles: Rationale, Policy Process, and Impacts', Discussion Paper 2009-03 (Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, March 2009). On recent improvements in the United States, see 'Obama Speeds Up Fuel Economy Standards, Sets First Carbon Limit', Bloomberg.com, 19 May 2009. For an international comparison of fuele-conomy standards, see the website of the International Council on Clean Transportation at http://www.theicct.org/reports_live.cfm. Additional informationNotes on contributorsAndrew B. Kennedy Andrew B. Kennedy is a Lecturer in the Crawford School of Economics and Government at the Australian National University.