Artigo Revisado por pares

The Tibet Problem in the Milieu of a Rising China: findings from a survey on Americans' attitudes toward China

2014; Routledge; Volume: 24; Issue: 92 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/10670564.2014.932152

ISSN

1469-9400

Autores

Yongrong Cao, Jian Xu,

Tópico(s)

China's Ethnic Minorities and Relations

Resumo

AbstractThe Lhasa riots in 2008 re-captured the world's attention on the Tibet problem. As China continues to grow as a rising power, it raises a concern over whether the perception of a rising China will affect how American people think about the Tibet problem. In this article, the authors apply public opinion data to evaluate this question. The results show that the perception of China's hard power or soft power has little influence on Americans' view of the Tibet problem, while factors of political values and China's policy stance matter greatly. Our findings suggest that the huge difference in political values between the PRC and the US makes it tough for both sides to agree on a resolution to the Tibet problem. In the long term, China needs to improve its human rights record and present itself as a responsible great power to win over the hearts of foreign publics rather than conduct a public relations campaign according to its own imagination. Notes 1. Zhao Huanxin, 'Riots aimed at derailing games: Wen', China Daily, (19 March 2008), available at: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008npc/2008-03/19/content_6547815.htm (accessed 23 April 2014). 2. Tsering Topgyal, 'Insecurity dilemma and the Tibetan uprising in 2008', Journal of Contemporary China 20(69), (2011), pp. 183–203; Tsering Topgyal, The Insecurity Dilemma and the Sino–Tibetan Conflict, Ph.D. dissertation, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2011. 3. Pew Global Attitudes Project, 'Some positive signs for US image: global economic doom—China and India notable exceptions, 24-Nation Pew Global Attitudes Survey', pewglobal, (12 June 2008), available at: http://pewglobal.org/reports/pdf/260.pdf (accessed 23 April 2014). 4. Jing Huang, The Tibet Issue and China's Peaceful Development (Charlotte: Baker & Taylor Books, 2014). 5. 'Hu: Tibet problem entirely internal issue of China', China Daily, (12 April 2008), available at: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-04/12/content_6612118.htm (accessed 23 April 2014). 6. 'Transcript of interview with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao', CNN, (29 September 2008), available at: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/09/29/chinese.premier.transcript/ (accessed 23 April 2014); '"Full text" of Chinese foreign minister's news conference', WWM, (12 March 2008); Topgyal, 'Insecurity dilemma and the Tibetan uprising in 2008' . 7. Taiwan used to be the top security issue. Ma Yingjoeu's re-election in 2008 greatly eased the tension across the Taiwan Strait. See, Yitan Li, 'Constructing peace in the Taiwan Strait: a constructivist analysis of the changing dynamics of identities and nationalisms', Journal of Contemporary China 23(85), (2014), pp. 119–142. 8. Suisheng Zhao, 'Foreign policy implications of Chinese nationalism revisited: the strident turn', Journal of Contemporary China 22(82), (2013), pp. 535–553. 9. A. Tom Grunfeld, The Making of Modern Tibet (New York: ME Sharpe, 1996); Melvyn C. Goldstein, A History of Modern Tibet, 1913–1951: The Demise of the Lamaist State, Vol. 1 (Oakland, CA: University of California Press, 1991).10. Melvyn C. Goldstein, 'The United States, Tibet, and the Cold War', Journal of Cold War Studies 8(3), (2006), pp. 145–164; John Kenneth Knaus, Orphans of the Cold War: America and the Tibetan Struggle for Survival (New York: Public Affairs Store, 2008); Carole McGranahan, 'Tibet's Cold War: The CIA and the Chushi Gangdrug resistance, 1956–1974', Journal of Cold War Studies 8(3), (2006), pp. 102–130; Kenneth J. Conboy and James Morrison, The CIA's Secret War in Tibet (Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas, 2002).11. Michael Oksenburg, Taiwan, Tibet, and Hong Kong in Sino–American Relations (Stanford, CA: Asia/Pacific Research Center, 1997).12. From 1987 to 2006, Congress put forward more than 200 bills concerned Tibet; see GuoYonghu, US Congress and the 'Tibet Problem' in Sino–American Relations (1987–2007), Ph.D. dissertation, Northeast Normal University, 2007, p. 1; the issue of the Tibetan Policy Act of 2002 marked the US Congress's legislation process as standardized; see Kerry Dumbaugh, The Tibetan Policy Act of 2002: Background and Implementation (Washington, DC: Library of Congress Washington DC Congressional Research Service, 2009). More recently, Resolution 356 'Expressing Support for the People of Tibet' passed the 112th Congress in 2012; see United States Senate, 'Expressing Support for the People of Tibet', Resolution 356, (30 January 2012), 112th Congress, pp. 1–4.13. Humphrey Taylor, 'Terrorists or freedom fighters? Most people think use of bombs and guns against really bad governments can sometimes be justified', Harris Interactive, (6 February 2002), available at: http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris-Interactive-Poll-Research-Terrorists-or-Freedom-Fighters-Most-People-Think-U-2002-02.pdf (accessed 23 April 2014).14. Barry Sautman, 'The Tibet issue in post-summit Sino–American relations', Pacific Affairs 72(1), (1999), pp. 7–21.15. Quansheng Zhao and Guoli Liu, 'The challenges of a rising China', The Journal of Strategic Studies 30(4–5), (2007), pp. 585–608.16. John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: Norton, 2001); John J. Mearsheimer, 'China's unpeaceful rise', Current History 105(690), (2006), pp. 160–162.17. Jinghao Zhou, China's Peaceful Rise in a Global Context: A Domestic Aspect of China's Road Map to Democratization (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2010); Bonnie S. Glaser and Benjamin Dooley, 'China's 11th Ambassadorial Conference signals continuity and change in foreign policy', China Brief 9(22), (2009), pp. 8–12.18. Elizabeth Economy, 'Don't break the engagement', Foreign Affairs 83(3), (2004), pp. 96–109.19. Melvyn C. Goldstein, The Snow Lion and the Dragon: China, Tibet, and the Dalai Lama (Oakland, CA: University of California Press, 1997).20. 'His Holiness the XIV Dalai Lama at the White House', The White House, (18 February 2010), available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/02/18/his-holiness-xiv-dalai-lama-white-house (accessed 23 April 2014).21. 'The President's meeting with His Holiness the XIV Dalai Lama', The White House, (17 July 2011), available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/07/17/president-s-meeting-his-holiness-xiv-dalai-lama (accessed 23 April 2014).22. Andreas Fuchs and Nils-Hendrik Klann, 'Paying a visit: the Dalai Lama effect on international trade', Journal of International Economics 91(1), (2013), pp. 164–177.23. See GuoYonghu, US Congress and the 'Tibet Problem' in Sino–American Relations, pp. 119–122.24. See Goldstein, 'The United States, Tibet, and the Cold War'.25. Barry Sautman, '"Vegetarian between meals": the Dalai Lama, war, and violence', Positions 18(1), (2010), pp. 89–143; Melvyn C. Goldstein, 'The Dalai Lama's dilemma', Foreign Affairs 77(1), (1998), pp. 83–97.26. Gerald Segal, 'Does China matter', Foreign Affairs 78(5), (1999), pp. 24–36.27. Joseph S. Nye, 'The rise of China's soft power', Wall Street Journal Asia, (29 December 2005), available at: http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/1499/rise_of_chinas_soft_power.html (accessed 23 April 2014).28. This result is consistent with the poll by Financial Times/Harris Poll on 21 May 2008, in which 59% of Americans do not believe that Tibet should be part of China. See Regina A. Corso, 'Should world leaders skip the Olympics? Global poll finds human rights in Tibet an issue', Harris Interactive, (21 May 2008), available at: http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris-Interactive-Poll-Research-Should-World-Leaders-Skip-the-Olympics-2008-05.pdf (accessed 23 April 2014). Also see Barry Sautman, 'Tibet's putative statehood and international law', Chinese Journal of International Law 9(1), (2010), pp. 127–142.29. Jian Yang, 'China in the South Pacific: hegemon on the horizon?', Pacific Review 22(2), (2009), pp. 139–158; Enbao Wang, 'Engagement or containment? Americans' views on China and Sino–US relations', Journal of Contemporary China 11(31), (2002), pp. 381–392.30. CCP regards its regime's survival, state sovereignty and territorial integrity (e.g. Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang and South China Sea) as its core interests. See Li Hongmei, 'China's "core interests" diplomacy gains ground', People's Daily Online, (20 November 2009), available at: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90002/96417/6819611.html (accessed 23 April 2014). Recently China become much more assertive in its foreign policy related core interests. See Suisheng Zhao, 'Understanding China's assertive foreign policy behavior during the global financial meltdown', The European Financial Review, (2011), pp. 40–43; Jana Sehnálková, 'China's growing assertiveness in the South China and East China Seas: reactions of the US and other regional players', Studia Territorialia 11(2), (2011), pp. 61–88; Michael Yahuda, 'China's new assertiveness in the South China Sea', Journal of Contemporary China 22(81), (2013), pp. 446–459.31. See Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics; Mearsheimer, 'China's unpeaceful rise'.32. Emma V. Broomfield, 'Perceptions of danger: the China threat theory', Journal of Contemporary China 12(35), (2003), pp. 265–284; Yi Edward Yang and Xinsheng Liu, 'The "China threat" through the lens of US print media: 1992–2006', Journal of Contemporary China 21(76), (2012), pp. 695–711; Graham Richardson, 'The China threat: myths, realities, and implications for US foreign policy', Potentia 2, (2010), pp. 55–67.33. Joseph S. Nye, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs Store, 2004); Joseph S. Nye, 'Get smart—combining hard and soft power', Foreign Affairs 88(4), (2009), pp. 160–163; Joseph S. Nye, 'Soft power', Foreign Policy 80, (1990), pp. 153–171; Ernest J. Wilson III, 'Hard power, soft power, smart power', The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 616(1), (2008), pp. 110–124.34. Hu Jingtao, 'Hold high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics and strive for new victories in building a moderately prosperous society in all, Report to the Seventeenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China on Oct. 15, 2007', Xinhua News Agency, (25 October 2007), available at: http://www.china.org.cn/english/congress/229611.htm (accessed 23 April 2014).35. James F. Paradise, 'China and international harmony: the role of Confucius Institutes in bolstering Beijing's soft power', Asian Survey 49(4), (2009), pp. 647–669.36. Zheng Bijian, 'China's "peaceful rise" to great-power status', Foreign Affairs 84(5), (2005), pp. 18–24; Rosemary Foot, 'Chinese strategies in a US-hegemonic global order: accommodating and hedging', International Affairs 82(1), (2006), pp. 77–94.37. Michael Barr, 'Nation branding as nation building: China's image campaign', East Asia 29(1), (2012), pp. 81–94.38. Jae Park, 'Cultural artefact, ideology export or soft power? Confucius Institute in Peru', International Studies in Sociology of Education 23(1), (2013), pp. 1–16.39. Sheng Ding, 'Analyzing rising power from the perspective of soft power: a new look at China's rise to the status quo power', Journal of Contemporary China 19(64), (2010), pp. 255–272.40. David S. Goodman, 'The Chinese political order after Mao: "socialist democracy" and the exercise of state power', Political Studies 33(2), (1985), pp. 218–235; Kevin J. O'Brien and Lianjiang Li, 'Accommodating "democracy" in a one-party state: introducing village elections in China', China Quarterly 162(6), (2000), pp. 465–489.41. Suisheng Zhao, 'The China model: can it replace the Western model of modernization?', Journal of Contemporary China 19(65), (2010), pp. 419–436; Scott Kennedy, 'The myth of the Beijing consensus', Journal of Contemporary China 19(65), (2010), pp. 461–477.42. Falk Hartig, 'Who's afraid of China? The challenge of Chinese soft power', Europe-Asia Studies 65(1), (2013), pp. 165–166.43. John Pomfret, 'Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama is delayed', Washington Post, (5 October 2009), available at: http://www.catalunyaoberta.cat/hemeroteca/statics/files/WP12.pdf (accessed 23 April 2014).44. Vincanne Adams, 'Suffering the winds of Lhasa: politicized bodies, human rights, cultural difference, and humanism in Tibet', Medical Anthropology Quarterly 12(1), (1998), pp. 74–102; Andrew J. Nathan, 'Human rights in Chinese foreign policy', The China Quarterly 139(1), (1994), pp. 622–643.45. Andy Stern, 'Chinas superior economic model', Wall Street Journal, (1 December 2011), available at: http://relooney.fatcow.com/0_New_12176.pdf (accessed 23 April 2014).46. The survey result could be easily influenced by the wording, so we have conducted an embedded experiment to test the sensibility in the AACS. Two alternative questions were included, the only difference between them being the use of 'worsened' or 'jeopardized' to express different degrees of political consequence if Obama were to meet the Dalai Lama. The result of the experiment indicates that there is no significant difference regardless of the verbs used.47. Democrats hold 57 positions in the Senate (out of a total of 100, Republicans hold the remaining 43 positions), and 258 in the House (out of a total of 435); see GuoYonghu, US Congress and the 'Tibet Problem' in Sino–American Relations. The democratic President Clinton became the first to meet the Dalai Lama in the White House in 1995, and made 'improvement of the human rights situation in Tibet a condition for renewal of the privileged trade status'. The Congress, however, went a step further to establish a Voice of America Tibetan, which declared Tibet an 'occupied country' in 1995, forced the appointment of a Special Coordinator for Tibetan Affairs who is responsible for liaising with the TGIE in 1997, and so on and so forth. See, Sautman, 'The Tibet issue in post-summit Sino–American relations'; Guangqiu Xu, 'The United States and the Tibet issue', Asian Survey 37(11), (1997), pp. 1062–1077.48. See James Reilly, 'China's unilateral sanctions', The Washington Quarterly 35(4), (2012), pp. 121–133.49. China's economic sanctions are more bark than bite. For instance, Paris issued a strong statement recognizing Tibet as part of China's integral territory right after Sarkozy had a meeting with the Dalai Lama in December 2008. Nine months later, China put France back on the shopping list again. See 'Sarkozy to see Dalai Lama, despite Chinese protests', Dawn, (4 December 2008), available at: http://www.dawn.com/news/905710/sarkozy-to-see-dalai-lama-despite-chinese-protests (accessed 23 April 2014); Ding Qingfen, 'France goes back on China's shopping list', China Daily, (29 October 2009), available at: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2009-10/29/content_8864372.htm (accessed 23 April 2014); Reilly, 'China's unilateral sanctions'.50. 'About Confucius institute/classroom', Hanban, available at: http://english.hanban.org/node_10971.htm (accessed 23 April 2014).51. 'China says US directive on Confucius Institutes "may harm friendship"', Xinhuanet, (24 May 2012), available at: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-05/24/c_123187293.htm (accessed 23 April 2014).52. Joshua Kurlantzick, Charm Offensive: How China's Soft Power is Transforming the World (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2007).53. See Reilly, 'China's unilateral sanctions'.54. Peter Bishop, The Myth of Shangri-La: Tibet, Travel Writing, and the Western Creation of Sacred Landscape (Oakland, CA: University of California Press, 1989).55. '"World leaders" opinion barometer (wave 6)', Harris Interactive, (23 April 2010), available at: http://www.harrisinteractive.fr/news/2010/HIFR_042010_BaroWorldLeaders_V6_UK.pdf (accessed 23 April 2014).56. Ekaterina Kurnosenko, China, the Dalai Lama and the Question of Soft Power, Ph.D. dissertation, Central European University, 2010; Manuel Lendorfer, Soft-power Resources of the Tibetan Government in Exile, Ph.D. dissertation, Universität Wien, 2009.57. The United Nations (UN) and all the countries around the world recognize Tibet as part of China. Xu Mingxu, 'Complete autonomy: the best approach to peaceful resolution of the Tibet problem', Journal of Contemporary China 7(18), (1998), pp. 369–378.58. Stephanie Roemer, The Tibetan Government-in-Exile: Politics at Large (London: Routledge, 2008).59. Wang Lixiong, 'A true "middle-way" solution to Tibetan unrest', China Security 4(2), (2008), pp. 27–37; Barry Sautman, 'Resolving the Tibet question: problems and prospects', Journal of Contemporary China 11(30), (2002), pp. 77–107; Barry Sautman, 'Association, federation and genuine autonomy: the Dalai Lama's proposals and Tibet independence', China Information 14(2), (2000), pp. 31–91.60. Cong Riyun, 'Nationalism and democratization in contemporary China', Journal of Contemporary China 18(62), (2009), pp. 831–848; Suisheng Zhao, 'Foreign policy implications of Chinese nationalism revisited'.61. See Corso, 'Should world leaders skip the Olympics?'.62.Ibid.63. Wenfang Tang and Benjamin Darr, 'Chinese nationalism and its political and social origins', Journal of Contemporary China 21(77), (2012), pp. 811–826.64. See Ibid.

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