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Uncertainty estimation in railway track life-cycle cost: a case study from Swedish National Rail Administration

2008; SAGE Publishing; Volume: 223; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1243/09544097jrrt235

2041-3017

Ambika Prasad Patra, Peter Söderholm, Uma Kumar,

BIM and Construction Integration

Life-cycle cost (LCC) is used as a cost-effective decision support for maintenance of railway track infrastructure. However, a fair degree of uncertainty associated with the estimation of LCC is due to the statistical characteristics of reliability and maintainability parameters. This paper presents a methodology for estimation of uncertainty linked with LCC, by a combination of design of experiment and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is illustrated by a case study of Banverket (Swedish National Rail Administration). The paper also includes developed maintenance cost models for track.